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Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
Avispa Fukuoka
Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
Avispa Fukuoka
Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
Avispa Fukuoka
Shinya Tsukahara
Avispa Fukuoka
Fagiano Okayama
Avispa Fukuoka
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1
Fagiano Okayama
Commentary
90'
Full-time. Avispa Fukuoka 2-1 Fagiano Okayama.
90'
5 minutes of added time.
86'
Fagiano Okayama
Offside, Fagiano Okayama.
83'
Fagiano Okayama
Offside, Fagiano Okayama.
79'
Fagiano Okayama
Offside, Fagiano Okayama.
79'
Fagiano Okayama
Offside, Fagiano Okayama.
61'
Goal! Avispa Fukuoka 1-1 Fagiano Okayama. K. Shirai (Fagiano Okayama) scores, assisted by Y. Tatsuta.
55'
Attempt saved. S. Morooka (Avispa Fukuoka), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.51.
53'
Avispa Fukuoka
Corner, Avispa Fukuoka.
48'
Attempt saved. T. Yamane (Fagiano Okayama), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.04.
46'
The second half is under way.
45'
Half-time. Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 Fagiano Okayama.
45'
3 minutes of added time.
32'
Fagiano Okayama
Corner, Fagiano Okayama.
30'
Fagiano Okayama
Corner, Fagiano Okayama.
27'
Avispa Fukuoka
Offside, Avispa Fukuoka.
23'
Fagiano Okayama
Offside, Fagiano Okayama.
22'
Fagiano Okayama
Corner, Fagiano Okayama.
16'
Fagiano Okayama
Offside, Fagiano Okayama.
7'
Goal! Avispa Fukuoka 1-0 Fagiano Okayama. M. Yota (Avispa Fukuoka) scores, assisted by K. Shiihashi.
5'
Avispa Fukuoka
Offside, Avispa Fukuoka.
2'
Attempt missed. Y. Kamiya (Fagiano Okayama), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.01.
1'
Kick-off: Avispa Fukuoka vs Fagiano Okayama.
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
54714 EUR · live
Home
1.05 · implied 95.2%
68.8%
-26.4 vs price
Away
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
18.2%
+18.1 vs price
Draw
20.0 · implied 5.0%
13.0%
+8.0 vs price
Half time
856 EUR · live
Draw
2.02 · implied 49.5%
63.3%
+13.8 vs price
Away
3.6 · implied 27.8%
36.3%
+8.5 vs price
Home
4.2 · implied 23.8%
0.2%
-23.6 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
21949 EUR · live
Under
1.69 · implied 59.2%
58.5%
-0.7 vs price
Over
2.44 · implied 41.0%
41.5%
+0.6 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
3711 EUR · live
Under
1.1 · implied 90.9%
94.7%
+3.8 vs price
Over
9.6 · implied 10.4%
5.2%
-5.2 vs price
11 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
7'
⚽
M. Yota · assist K. Shiihashi1–0
36'
Y. Kamiya · Foul
Half-time · 1–0
46'
🔁
E. Miyamoto ◂ Y. Kamiya
46'
🔁
A. Esaka ◂ K. Kawano
47'
M. Shigemi · Foul
56'
🔁
N. Browne ◂ T. Yamane
61'
⚽
K. Shirai · assist Y. Tatsuta1–1
66'
🔁
Y. Kitajima ◂ M. Shigemi
66'
🔁
Y. Hashimoto ◂ T. Oka
66'
🔁
K. Yamawaki ◂ Y. Masato
67'
Y. Tsujioka · Handball
76'
⚽
Y. Hashimoto2–1
78'
🔁
M. Matsumoto ◂ K. Shirai
81'
🔁
R. Sato ◂ S. Na
82'
Y. Kitajima · Argument
83'
🔁
A. Sani Brown ◂ Werik Popó
88'
🔁
D. Miya ◂ M. Yota
Full-time · 2–1
90'+1
N. Browne · Foul
90'+4
A. Sani Brown · Foul
Coaches
Shinya TsukaharaTakashi Kiyama 
Recent form
Avispa FukuokaLHYokohama FC0-1
LHSanfrecce Hiroshima0-1
LAShimizu S-Pulse0-1
DHMito Hollyhock1-1
LHUrawa Red Diamonds2-3
Fagiano OkayamaWHJEF United Chiba1-0
LHKyoto Sanga FC1-2
WAUrawa Red Diamonds2-1
WHSanfrecce Hiroshima3-2
WAJEF United Chiba2-1
About this match
**Fukuoka are in freefall, Okayama are rolling — this is a classic desperation vs. momentum clash.** Avispa haven't won in five, while Fagiano just took down Hiroshima at home. The hosts need a result badly. 🔴
Fukuoka's defense has been leaky (back-to-back 0-1 losses), and Okayama's attack has teeth — **Lucao and A. Esaka** just carved up a dangerous Hiroshima side. That said, the **home crowd and head-to-head edge** (2 wins in the last five) gives Fukuoka a fighting chance if they tighten up.
Key storylines:
- **Lucao's form** — Okayama's striker is in prime nick after a brace vs. Hiroshima; Fukuoka's backline will be tested
- **Werik Popó isolation** — Fukuoka's forward has little support in a struggling attack; needs service from **K. Maeda** and **T. Miki**
- **L. Moser under pressure** — Okayama's keeper faces a team desperate to break their losing streak at home
Expected lineups:
- **Avispa Fukuoka**: T. Nagaishi, D. Fukazawa, Y. Tsujioka, T. Oka, Y. Hashimoto, K. Maeda, T. Miki, Werik Popó, S. Morooka
- **Fagiano Okayama**: L. Moser, Y. Suzuki, H. Omori, Y. Tatsuta, K. Shirai, H. Motoyama, Lucao, S. Na
Prediction:
**Fagiano Okayama 2–1 Avispa Fukuoka**. Okayama's momentum and clinical finishing edge out a desperate host. Fukuoka will scrape one but won't be enough. 📉
Match facts
Stadium
Best Denki Stadium
City
Fukuoka
Kickoff
10 Oct, 06:00 UTC
Competition
J1 League
Highlights & clips
Avispa Fukuoka
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1
Fagiano Okayama
24
Y. Obata
6.9
33
K. Yamawaki
6.6
↑ 66'
37
T. Masaya
6.8
15
Y. Tsujioka
6.5
47
Y. Hashimoto
7.9
↑ 66'
34
K. Shiihashi
6.4
55
K. Maeda
6.7
38
D. Miya
6.7
↑ 88'
25
Y. Kitajima
6.9
↑ 66'
13
S. Morooka
6.7
32
A. Sani Brown
6.6
↑ 83'
1
L. Moser
6.6
44
S. Mori
6.6
48
Y. Tatsuta
7.1
6
H. Omori
6.8
28
M. Matsumoto
6.4
↑ 78'
80
O. Alionço
7.1
41
E. Miyamoto
6.5
↑ 46'
79
N. Browne
6.5
↑ 56'
8
A. Esaka
6.6
↑ 46'
19
R. Sato
6.6
↑ 81'
9
L. Gaúcho
6.4
Substitutes
1GT. Nagaishi
16DT. Oka↓ 66'6.8
29MM. Yota↓ 88'8.4
2MY. Masato↓ 66'6.2
17MH. Akino
52MS. Takemoto
9FWerik Popó↓ 83'7.3
6FM. Shigemi↓ 66'6.4
14FN. Shintaro
Coach: Shinya Tsukahara
Substitutes
52GT. Hamada
43DY. Suzuki
51MK. Shirai↓ 78'7.1
88MT. Yamane↓ 56'6.5
33MY. Kamiya↓ 46'6.1
55MY. Fujii
7MR. Takeuchi
10FS. Na↓ 81'7.4
20FK. Kawano↓ 46'6.5
Coach: Takashi Kiyama
Top stats
41%Possession59%
1.34Expected goals (xG)1.21
11Total shots10
6Shots on target3
1Big chances3
2Corners3
Shots
3Shots off target5
2Blocked shots2
7Shots inside box4
4Shots outside box6
1Big chances scored1
0Big chances missed2
Attack
17Touches in box16
60Final third entries84
2Offsides5
10Free kicks13
2Fouled in final third3
Passing
303Passes436
225Accurate passes346
23/61 (38%)Long balls12/60 (20%)
3/8 (38%)Crosses2/15 (13%)
20Throw-ins33
Duels
50Duels50
27/62 (44%)Ground duels35/62 (56%)
29/51 (57%)Aerial duels22/51 (43%)
4/16 (25%)Dribbles6/10 (60%)
8Dispossessed9
Defending
13Tackles20
62Tackles won75
7Interceptions6
34Clearances25
41Recoveries37
Discipline
13Fouls10
4Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
1Big saves0
8Goal kicks6
1Punches3
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers
Who winsOkayama to win (DNB) 52% · 1.73 @ 10bet
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 58% · 1.11 @ William Hill
1X2Okayama to win 38% · 2.80 @ William Hill
1X2Draw 31% · 2.25 @ 1xBet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 75% · 1.20 @ Bet365
BTTSBTTS: No 50% · 1.25 @ Bet365
CornersOver 8.5 corners 59% · 2.00 @ Pinnacle
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 65% · 1.29 @ 1xBet
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 53% · 1.50 @ 1xBet
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 67% · 2.50 @ William Hill
1X2Fukuoka to win 31% · 3.34 @ 1xBet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.98
Avispa Fukuoka
3.02
Draw
2.46
Fagiano Okayama
Double Chanceconsensus
1.50
Avispa Fukuoka or Draw
1.35
Avispa Fukuoka or Fagiano Okayama
1.37
Draw or Fagiano Okayama
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.90
Yes
1.80
No
Home Win to Nilconsensus
4.80
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
3.80
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.05
Over 0.50
7.50
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.40
Over 1.50
2.73
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
2.32
Over 2.50
1.58
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
4.50
Over 3.50
1.17
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
8.75
Over 4.50
1.04
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
2.05
Avispa Fukuoka
1.69
Fagiano Okayama
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.53
Over 7.50
2.36
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.94
Over 8.50
1.81
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
2.44
Over 9.50
1.50
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
3.20
Over 10.50
1.29
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
4.40
Over 11.50
1.15
Under 11.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.1%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.1%.
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