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V-Varen Nagasaki
V-Varen Nagasaki
V-Varen Nagasaki
JEF United Chiba
JEF United Chiba
JEF United Chiba
JEF United Chiba
JEF United Chiba
JEF United Chiba
JEF United Chiba
JEF United Chiba
Yoshiyuki Kobayashi
JEF United Chiba
V-Varen Nagasaki
JEF United Chiba
4-4-2 · 3-4-2-1
V-Varen Nagasaki
Commentary
90'
Full-time. JEF United Chiba 1-1 V-Varen Nagasaki.
90+5'
Goal! JEF United Chiba 1-1 V-Varen Nagasaki. K. Yasuda (V-Varen Nagasaki) scores, assisted by Y. Hotaru.
90'
7 minutes of added time.
90'
V-Varen Nagasaki
Corner, V-Varen Nagasaki.
88'
V-Varen Nagasaki
Corner, V-Varen Nagasaki.
87'
V-Varen Nagasaki
Corner, V-Varen Nagasaki.
83'
JEF United Chiba
Corner, JEF United Chiba.
61'
JEF United Chiba
Corner, JEF United Chiba.
58'
JEF United Chiba
Corner, JEF United Chiba.
57'
JEF United Chiba
Corner, JEF United Chiba.
56'
Attempt missed. K. Yasuda (V-Varen Nagasaki), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.
46'
The second half is under way.
45'
Half-time. JEF United Chiba 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki.
45'
3 minutes of added time.
40'
JEF United Chiba
Corner, JEF United Chiba.
20'
JEF United Chiba
Corner, JEF United Chiba.
17'
Attempt saved. K. Yamura (JEF United Chiba), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.25.
16'
JEF United Chiba
Corner, JEF United Chiba.
15'
JEF United Chiba
Corner, JEF United Chiba.
1'
Kick-off: JEF United Chiba vs V-Varen Nagasaki.
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
49925 EUR · live
Home
11.0 · implied 9.1%
80.2%
+71.1 vs price
Draw
1.11 · implied 90.1%
13.7%
-76.4 vs price
Away
250.0 · implied 0.4%
6.2%
+5.8 vs price
Half time
842 EUR · live
Draw
4.3 · implied 23.3%
87.2%
+63.9 vs price
Home
1.07 · implied 93.5%
57.8%
-35.6 vs price
Away
3.25 · implied 30.8%
0.0%
-30.8 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
24142 EUR · live
Under
1.06 · implied 94.3%
55.8%
-38.5 vs price
Over
11.0 · implied 9.1%
44.2%
+35.1 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
2278 EUR · live
Under
1.01 · implied 99.0%
86.7%
-12.3 vs price
Over
34.0 · implied 2.9%
13.3%
+10.3 vs price
12 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
5'
⚽
T. Santana1–0
13'
T. Santana · Foul
Half-time · 1–0
46'
🔁
K. Yasuda ◂ R. Yamada
53'
Erison · Foul
56'
🔁
K. Yonekura ◂ R. Ishio
61'
🔁
T. Ominami ◂ S. Ryosuke
65'
🔁
Y. Egawa ◂ K. Doi
69'
🔁
H. Goya ◂ Erison
69'
🔁
Z. Issaka ◂ N. Sugiyama
74'
🔁
J. Junior ◂ T. Santana
79'
🔁
K. Tanaka ◂ T. Tsukui
79'
🔁
Y. Kobayashi ◂ T. Yasui
86'
🔁
T. Matsumoto ◂ A. Masuyama
Full-time · 1–1
90'+2
Eduardo · Foul
90'+2
🔁
D. Suzuki ◂ M. Hidaka
90'+5
⚽
K. Yasuda · assist Y. Hotaru1–1
Coaches
Yoshiyuki KobayashiTakuya Takagi 
Recent form
JEF United ChibaLAFagiano Okayama0-1
LAShimizu S-Pulse1-2
DATokyo Verdy1-1
WHGamba Osaka2-0
LHFagiano Okayama1-2
V-Varen NagasakiLAShimizu S-Pulse1-2
DHCerezo Osaka1-1
WHNagoya Grampus2-0
LAVissel Kobe1-3
DHGamba Osaka2-2
About this match
**JEF United rolls in as the home favorite with recent H2H dominance** — Nagasaki's form is steadier, but Chiba's backyard record against them is hard to ignore. 🏟️
Chiba have been choppy (1W 1D 3L in the last five), while Nagasaki are grinding respectably (1W 2D 2L). Both teams drew blanks in their most recent outings, so a tight, defensive affair is on the table.
Key storylines:
- **JEF's home fortress** — Chiba have won both recent clashes with Nagasaki; expect them to lean on that at Fukuda Denshi Arena
- **Nagasaki's steadiness vs Chiba's wobble** — Varen's balanced form gives them a chance to steal points despite the H2H disadvantage
- **Midfield battle** — **T. Tsukui** and **Indio** for Chiba will need to control tempo against Nagasaki's **Y. Hotaru** and **R. Yamada**
Expected lineups:
- **JEF United Chiba**: J. Suárez, M. Hidaka, D. Hall, T. Kawano, T. Tsukui, Indio, Y. Kobayashi, K. Tanaka
- **V-Varen Nagasaki**: G. Masaaki, Y. Shunya, S. Ryosuke, Y. Egawa, O. Hijiri, Y. Hotaru, R. Yamada, T. Santana
Prediction:
**JEF United Chiba 1–0 V-Varen Nagasaki** — Chiba edge this as a slight favorite at home, but Nagasaki's defensive shape keeps it tight.
Match facts
Stadium
Fukuda Denshi Arena
City
Chiba
Kickoff
11 Oct, 05:00 UTC
Competition
J1 League
Highlights & clips
JEF United Chiba
4-4-2 · 3-4-2-1
V-Varen Nagasaki
19
J. Suárez
6.4
11
K. Yonekura
6.6
↑ 56'
28
T. Kawano
6.8
2
B. Nduka
6.7
13
D. Suzuki
↑ 90'
42
Z. Issaka
6.1
↑ 69'
6
Eduardo
7.7
7
K. Tanaka
6.7
↑ 79'
5
Y. Kobayashi
6.5
↑ 79'
9
H. Goya
6.5
↑ 69'
29
K. Yamura
6.6
1
G. Masaaki
7.2
25
T. Ominami
6.7
↑ 61'
29
A. Ikki
7.3
6
Y. Egawa
6.6
↑ 65'
34
T. Matsumoto
6.5
↑ 86'
5
Y. Hotaru
7.8
7
K. Yasuda
7.4
↑ 46'
23
Y. Shunya
7.4
10
M. Jesus
7.5
41
M. Hasegawa
7.4
99
J. Junior
6.7
↑ 74'
Substitutes
23GR. Suzuki
67DM. Hidaka↓ 90'7.2
39DR. Ishio↓ 56'6.8
41MT. Yasui↓ 79'7.8
18MN. Sugiyama↓ 69'6.3
8MT. Tsukui↓ 79'6.2
37MM. Himeno
4MT. Taguchi
99FErison↓ 69'6.5
Coach: Yoshiyuki Kobayashi
Substitutes
13GH. Go
31DK. Doi↓ 65'6.8
50DS. Ryosuke↓ 61'6.6
88MA. Masuyama↓ 86'6.6
24MR. Yamada↓ 46'6.2
21MD. Pituca
22MO. Hijiri
9FT. Santana↓ 74'5.4
18FY. Ryogo
Coach: Takuya Takagi
Top stats
41%Possession59%
2.79Expected goals (xG)0.62
16Total shots13
4Shots on target3
5Big chances2
9Corners4
Shots
8Shots off target7
4Blocked shots3
12Shots inside box4
4Shots outside box9
1Hit woodwork1
5Big chances missed2
Attack
23Touches in box19
68Final third entries63
7Free kicks13
3Fouled in final third1
Passing
342Passes521
241Accurate passes429
21/65 (32%)Long balls17/43 (40%)
5/25 (20%)Crosses2/17 (12%)
14Throw-ins19
Duels
47Duels53
28/60 (47%)Ground duels32/60 (53%)
21/44 (48%)Aerial duels23/44 (52%)
3/11 (27%)Dribbles8/15 (53%)
5Dispossessed11
Defending
18Tackles13
67Tackles won85
11Interceptions9
24Clearances26
65Recoveries53
Discipline
13Fouls7
2Yellow cards1
0Red cards0
Goalkeeping
2Saves4
9Goal kicks8
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers
Who winsNagasaki to win (DNB) 56% · 1.83 @ Unibet
1X2Nagasaki to win 37% · 2.80 @ William Hill
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 70% · 1.43 @ 1xBet
BTTSBoth teams to score 56% · 3.25 @ Bet365
1X2Draw 28% · 2.50 @ Bet365
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 58% · 1.71 @ Pinnacle
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 50% · 1.18 @ William Hill
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 74% · 2.05 @ 1xBet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 69% · 1.34 @ Pinnacle
CornersOver 8.5 corners 54% · 1.65 @ Pinnacle
1X2Chiba to win 34% · 3.00 @ William Hill
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.71
JEF United Chiba
3.30
Draw
2.51
V-Varen Nagasaki
Double Chanceconsensus
1.50
JEF United Chiba or Draw
1.31
JEF United Chiba or V-Varen Nagasaki
1.42
Draw or V-Varen Nagasaki
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.68
Yes
2.05
No
Home Win to Nilconsensus
4.80
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
4.40
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.02
Over 0.50
9.75
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.29
Over 1.50
3.50
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.93
Over 2.50
1.87
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
3.37
Over 3.50
1.29
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
7.00
Over 4.50
1.07
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.93
JEF United Chiba
1.78
V-Varen Nagasaki
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.35
Over 7.50
2.85
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.63
Over 8.50
2.16
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
2.05
Over 9.50
1.71
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.55
Over 10.50
1.43
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
3.40
Over 11.50
1.24
Under 11.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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