Kashiwa Reysol 4-2 Vissel Kobe: Stats, xG & Lineups

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Kashiwa Reysol 4-2 Vissel Kobe.

90+9'

Y. Ideguchi

Attempt saved. Y. Ideguchi (Vissel Kobe), left-footed shot. xG 0.08.

90+9'

M. Hosoya

Attempt missed. M. Hosoya (Kashiwa Reysol), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.16.

90+1'

W. Harada

Yellow card for W. Harada (Kashiwa Reysol) for foul.

90'

10 minutes of added time.

90'

M. Skibbe

Yellow card for M. Skibbe (Vissel Kobe) for argument.

88'

Diego

Goal! Kashiwa Reysol 4-2 Vissel Kobe. Diego (Vissel Kobe) scores, assisted by N. Iino.

87'

Erik

Cleared off the line! Erik (Vissel Kobe), right-footed shot. xG 0.38.

84'

Y. Segawa

Goal! Kashiwa Reysol 4-1 Vissel Kobe. Y. Segawa (Kashiwa Reysol) scores.

84'

S. Fujio

Substitution, Kashiwa Reysol: M. Hosoya comes on for S. Fujio.

84'

T. Kubo

Substitution, Kashiwa Reysol: W. Harada comes on for T. Kubo.

83'

Kashiwa Reysol

Corner, Kashiwa Reysol.

82'

S. Fujio

Attempt blocked. S. Fujio (Kashiwa Reysol), header. xG 0.16.

81'

R. Komatsu

Goal! Kashiwa Reysol 3-1 Vissel Kobe. R. Komatsu (Vissel Kobe) scores, assisted by Diego.

77'

Vissel Kobe

Offside, Vissel Kobe.

76'

I. Takahashi

Substitution, Vissel Kobe: N. Iino comes on for I. Takahashi.

75'

Y. Segawa

Attempt missed. Y. Segawa (Kashiwa Reysol), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

74'

Diego

Attempt missed. Diego (Vissel Kobe), header from a corner. xG 0.13.

74'

Vissel Kobe

Corner, Vissel Kobe.

73'

Kashiwa Reysol

Offside, Kashiwa Reysol.

73'

Vissel Kobe

Offside, Vissel Kobe.

72'

Y. Muto

Substitution, Vissel Kobe: Y. Iwamoto comes on for Y. Muto.

72'

G. Sakai

Substitution, Vissel Kobe: R. Komatsu comes on for G. Sakai.

71'

T. Wakahara

Substitution, Kashiwa Reysol: K. Nagai comes on for T. Wakahara.

71'

K. Endo

Substitution, Kashiwa Reysol: K. Yuba comes on for K. Endo.

71'

H. Yamauchi

Substitution, Kashiwa Reysol: Y. Segawa comes on for H. Yamauchi.

66'

G. Sakai

Attempt missed. G. Sakai (Vissel Kobe), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.02.

66'

Thuler

Attempt missed. Thuler (Vissel Kobe), header from a throw-in. xG 0.05.

64'

T. Kubo

Goal! Kashiwa Reysol 3-0 Vissel Kobe. T. Kubo (Kashiwa Reysol) scores, assisted by Y. Koizumi.

61'

K. Endo

Attempt blocked. K. Endo (Kashiwa Reysol), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

60'

Kashiwa Reysol

Corner, Kashiwa Reysol.

58'

T. Yamakawa

Substitution, Vissel Kobe: Caetano comes on for T. Yamakawa.

57'

Erik

Attempt blocked. Erik (Vissel Kobe), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.04.

53'

H. Yamauchi

Goal! Kashiwa Reysol 2-0 Vissel Kobe. H. Yamauchi (Kashiwa Reysol) scores, assisted by S. Toshima.

52'

S. Fujio

Attempt blocked. S. Fujio (Kashiwa Reysol), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

49'

S. Fujio

Attempt missed. S. Fujio (Kashiwa Reysol), left-footed shot. xG 0.09.

47'

Kashiwa Reysol

Corner, Kashiwa Reysol.

46'

S. Fujio

Attempt saved. S. Fujio (Kashiwa Reysol), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.06.

46'

K. Nagato

Substitution, Vissel Kobe: J. Patric comes on for K. Nagato.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Kashiwa Reysol 1-0 Vissel Kobe.

45+6'

Erik

Cleared off the line! Erik (Vissel Kobe), header from a throw-in. xG 0.70.

45+4'

G. Sakai

Attempt blocked. G. Sakai (Vissel Kobe), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

45+4'

Vissel Kobe

Corner, Vissel Kobe.

45'

5 minutes of added time.

45'

Y. Muto

Attempt missed. Y. Muto (Vissel Kobe), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.09.

38'

Y. Koizumi

Attempt missed. Y. Koizumi (Kashiwa Reysol), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

32'

Kashiwa Reysol

Offside, Kashiwa Reysol.

29'

N. Nakagawa

Attempt missed. N. Nakagawa (Kashiwa Reysol), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

27'

S. Fujio

Goal! Kashiwa Reysol 1-0 Vissel Kobe. S. Fujio (Kashiwa Reysol) scores.

27'

K. Endo

Attempt blocked. K. Endo (Kashiwa Reysol), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

18'

S. Baba

Substitution, Kashiwa Reysol: S. Toshima comes on for S. Baba.

15'

Y. Osako

Attempt blocked. Y. Osako (Vissel Kobe), left-footed shot. xG 0.28.

14'

S. Fujio

Attempt saved. S. Fujio (Kashiwa Reysol), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

13'

Y. Koizumi

Attempt blocked. Y. Koizumi (Kashiwa Reysol), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

12'

I. Takahashi

Attempt missed. I. Takahashi (Vissel Kobe), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

11'

Kashiwa Reysol

Corner, Kashiwa Reysol.

10'

Diego

Attempt missed. Diego (Vissel Kobe), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

2'

N. Nakagawa

Attempt missed. N. Nakagawa (Kashiwa Reysol), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

1'

Erik

Attempt saved. Erik (Vissel Kobe), header. xG 0.05.

1'

Kick-off: Kashiwa Reysol vs Vissel Kobe.

Where the money is

484990 EUR matched · captured 3 weeks ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 146867 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

83.5%

-15.5 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

9.6%

+9.5 vs price

Draw 150.0 · implied 0.7%

6.9%

+6.2 vs price

Half time 1563 EUR · live

Home 3.25 · implied 30.8%

48.8%

+18.0 vs price

Away 4.2 · implied 23.8%

36.7%

+12.9 vs price

Draw 1.9 · implied 52.6%

14.4%

-38.2 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 124945 EUR · live

Over 1.45 · implied 69.0%

61.7%

-7.3 vs price

Under 3.2 · implied 31.2%

38.3%

+7.1 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 9075 EUR · live

Under 1.04 · implied 96.2%

95.2%

-1.0 vs price

Over 29.0 · implied 3.4%

4.8%

+1.3 vs price

14 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG (estimated)

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

18' 🔁 S. Toshima ◂ S. Baba

27' ⚽ S. Fujio1–0

Half-time · 1–0

46' 🔁 J. Patric ◂ K. Nagato

53' ⚽ H. Yamauchi · assist S. Toshima2–0

58' 🔁 Caetano ◂ T. Yamakawa

64' ⚽ T. Kubo · assist Y. Koizumi3–0

71' 🔁 Y. Segawa ◂ H. Yamauchi

71' 🔁 K. Yuba ◂ K. Endo

71' 🔁 K. Nagai ◂ T. Wakahara

72' 🔁 R. Komatsu ◂ G. Sakai

72' 🔁 Y. Iwamoto ◂ Y. Muto

76' 🔁 N. Iino ◂ I. Takahashi

81' ⚽ R. Komatsu · assist Diego3–1

84' ⚽ Y. Segawa4–1

84' 🔁 W. Harada ◂ T. Kubo

84' 🔁 M. Hosoya ◂ S. Fujio

88' ⚽ Diego · assist N. Iino4–2

Full-time · 4–2

90' M. Skibbe · Argument

90'⁺¹ W. Harada · Foul

Coaches

Ricardo Rodriguez

Michael Skibbe

Recent form

Kashiwa Reysol

WHFC Imabari4-0

WAMachida Zelvia4-2

WAKyoto Sanga FC3-2

LHYokohama F. Marinos0-2

LACerezo Osaka0-2

Vissel Kobe

WHSagan Tosu1-0

WAGamba Osaka1-0

WHKashima Antlers2-1

WHV-Varen Nagasaki3-1

WATokyo Verdy2-0

About this match

**Kashiwa's on a scoring rampage, but Kobe's unbeaten run is *the* test they need.** Home advantage meets peak form in this clash 🔥

Kashiwa are clicking—three straight wins with 11 goals in their last five. Vissel, though? Perfect record, zero losses, grinding out tight 1-0s. This is elite defense meets explosive attack.

Key storylines:

- **Kashiwa's attacking fluidity vs Vissel's fortress defense** — three straight wins for the hosts show they can dismantle anyone when the chemistry clicks
- **Home field matters here** — Kashiwa unbeaten at Sankyo Frontier this stretch, but Vissel aren't fussed by travel (won twice on the road lately)
- **Set-piece battles** — both teams lean on structure; midfield control through **Kumasaka** and **Ideguchi** could decide the tone

Expected lineups:

- **Kashiwa Reysol**: Kojima, Sugioka, Koga, Baba, Harada, Kumasaka, Nakagawa, Konishi, Koizumi, Segawa, Kubo
- **Vissel Kobe**: Gonda, Diego, Thuler, Yamakawa, Sakai, Goke, Ideguchi, Hidaka, Nagato, Osako, Muto

Prediction:

**2-1 Kashiwa.** Home form and momentum give them the edge, but Vissel's discipline keeps it tight 🎯

Match facts

Stadium

Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium

City

Kashiwa

Referee

Koichiro Fukushima

1.98 yellows/match · 40 matches

Kickoff

09 Oct, 10:00 UTC

Competition

J1 League

Highlights & clips

Kashiwa Reysol 3-4-2-1 · 4-4-2 Vissel Kobe

29 K. Nagai 6.3 ↑ 71' 28 S. Toshima 8.1 ↑ 18' 4 T. Koga 6.8 26 D. Sugioka 7.2 42 W. Harada 6.0 ↑ 84' 21 Y. Konishi 7.0 39 N. Nakagawa 7.3 20 Y. Segawa 7.6 ↑ 71' 8 Y. Koizumi 7.4 44 K. Yuba 6.6 ↑ 71' 9 M. Hosoya 6.3 ↑ 84' 1 D. Maekawa 5.2 2 N. Iino 6.6 ↑ 76' 16 Caetano 6.5 ↑ 58' 3 Thuler 7.2 15 Diego 8.5 23 Y. Iwamoto 6.5 ↑ 72' 7 Y. Ideguchi 6.5 29 R. Komatsu 7.6 ↑ 72' 26 J. Patric 6.7 ↑ 46' 94 Erik 7.2 10 Y. Osako 6.1

Substitutes

77GT. Wakahara↓ 71'7.0 88DS. Baba↓ 18'6.7 2DH. Mitsumaru 5MK. Endo↓ 71'8.3 24MT. Kubo↓ 84'7.7 16MK. Yuruki 40MR. Harakawa 87FH. Yamauchi↓ 71'7.7 15FS. Fujio↓ 84'7.5

Coach: Ricardo Rodriguez

Substitutes

71GS. Gonda 41DK. Nagato↓ 46'6.7 24DG. Sakai↓ 72'6.2 17DI. Takahashi↓ 76'6.1 4DT. Yamakawa↓ 58'6.0 5MY. Goke 25MY. Kuwasaki 44MM. Hidaka 11FY. Muto↓ 72'6.7

Coach: Michael Skibbe

Top stats

44%Possession56%

1.88Expected goals (xG)1.6

17Total shots15

6Shots on target6

3Big chances3

4Corners2

Shots

6Shots off target6

5Blocked shots3

12Shots inside box11

5Shots outside box4

2Big chances scored1

1Big chances missed2

Attack

24Touches in box29

52Final third entries70

2Offsides2

7Free kicks10

1Fouled in final third2

Passing

418Passes518

327Accurate passes405

29/71 (41%)Long balls27/75 (36%)

4/11 (36%)Crosses7/24 (29%)

13Throw-ins30

Duels

50Duels50

24/56 (43%)Ground duels32/56 (57%)

32/57 (56%)Aerial duels25/57 (44%)

8/18 (44%)Dribbles8/12 (67%)

5Dispossessed5

Defending

9Tackles15

22Tackles won67

9Interceptions12

63Clearances19

61Recoveries47

Discipline

10Fouls7

1Yellow cards0

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

8Goal kicks8

5Punches0

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 15 bookmakers

Kashiwa 42%

28%

Vissel Kobe 29%

BTTSBoth teams to score 56% · 1.70 @ Novibet

1X2Draw 28% · 2.20 @ Bet365

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 51% · 1.85 @ Bet365

CornersOver 8.5 corners 58%

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 66%

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 54%

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 74% · 1.29 @ Bet365

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 71% · 1.30 @ Bet365

1X2Vissel Kobe to win 29% · 3.75 @ Bet365

1X2Kashiwa to win 42% · 2.88 @ Bet365

Who winsKashiwa to win (DNB) 51% · 1.65 @ 888Sport

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.15

Kashiwa Reysol

3.20

Draw

3.10

Vissel Kobe

Double Chanceconsensus

1.36

Kashiwa Reysol or Draw

1.36

Kashiwa Reysol or Vissel Kobe

1.67

Draw or Vissel Kobe

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.62

Yes

2.15

No

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.06

Over 0.50

10.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.29

Over 1.50

3.50

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.95

Over 2.50

1.85

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

3.40

Over 3.50

1.30

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

7.00

Over 4.50

1.10

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.62

Kashiwa Reysol

2.15

Vissel Kobe

1X2 (1st Half)consensus

2.88

Kashiwa Reysol

2.20

Draw

3.75

Vissel Kobe

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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