Kashima Antlers 2-0 V-Varen Nagasaki: Stats & xG

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Kashima Antlers 2-0 V-Varen Nagasaki.

90+1'

K. Yasuda

Attempt missed. K. Yasuda (V-Varen Nagasaki), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

90'

3 minutes of added time.

85'

L. Ceará

Substitution, Kashima Antlers: H. Tokuda comes on for L. Ceará.

85'

A. Masuyama

Substitution, V-Varen Nagasaki: O. Hijiri comes on for A. Masuyama.

85'

Y. Hotaru

Substitution, V-Varen Nagasaki: S. Takashi comes on for Y. Hotaru.

83'

M. Jesus

Cleared off the line! M. Jesus (V-Varen Nagasaki), left-footed shot. xG 0.05.

83'

Y. Hotaru

Attempt blocked. Y. Hotaru (V-Varen Nagasaki), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

83'

V-Varen Nagasaki

Corner, V-Varen Nagasaki.

82'

K. Yasuda

Yellow card for K. Yasuda (V-Varen Nagasaki) for foul.

77'

Y. Matsumura

Attempt blocked. Y. Matsumura (Kashima Antlers), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

72'

A. Čavrić

Substitution, Kashima Antlers: Y. Suzuki comes on for A. Čavrić.

72'

G. Shibasaki

Substitution, Kashima Antlers: K. Misao comes on for G. Shibasaki.

67'

A. Ikki

Substitution, V-Varen Nagasaki: S. Ryosuke comes on for A. Ikki.

67'

J. Junior

Substitution, V-Varen Nagasaki: Y. Ryogo comes on for J. Junior.

63'

M. Jesus

Attempt missed. M. Jesus (V-Varen Nagasaki), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

62'

V-Varen Nagasaki

Corner, V-Varen Nagasaki.

61'

K. Yasuda

Attempt saved. K. Yasuda (V-Varen Nagasaki), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.17.

55'

M. Jesus

Attempt missed. M. Jesus (V-Varen Nagasaki), left-footed shot. xG 0.10.

55'

Élber

Substitution, Kashima Antlers: Y. Matsumura comes on for Élber.

54'

T. Matsumoto

Substitution, V-Varen Nagasaki: K. Yasuda comes on for T. Matsumoto.

53'

V-Varen Nagasaki

Corner, V-Varen Nagasaki.

48'

M. Jesus

Attempt missed. M. Jesus (V-Varen Nagasaki), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

47'

R. Ogawa

Attempt missed. R. Ogawa (Kashima Antlers), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.02.

46'

S. Omori

Substitution, Kashima Antlers: R. Ogawa comes on for S. Omori.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Kashima Antlers 2-0 V-Varen Nagasaki.

45+4'

V-Varen Nagasaki

Corner, V-Varen Nagasaki.

45+4'

T. Matsumoto

Attempt blocked. T. Matsumoto (V-Varen Nagasaki), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.03.

45'

3 minutes of added time.

43'

J. Junior

Yellow card for J. Junior (V-Varen Nagasaki) for foul.

41'

A. Ikki

Attempt missed. A. Ikki (V-Varen Nagasaki), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.04.

37'

Kashima Antlers

Offside, Kashima Antlers.

35'

J. Junior

Attempt missed. J. Junior (V-Varen Nagasaki), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

30'

J. Junior

Attempt missed. J. Junior (V-Varen Nagasaki), header. xG 0.10.

27'

V-Varen Nagasaki

Corner, V-Varen Nagasaki.

27'

A. Masuyama

Attempt blocked. A. Masuyama (V-Varen Nagasaki), header. xG 0.05.

27'

A. Masuyama

Attempt missed. A. Masuyama (V-Varen Nagasaki), header from a corner. xG 0.05.

27'

T. Ominami

Attempt missed. T. Ominami (V-Varen Nagasaki), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.11.

25'

V-Varen Nagasaki

Corner, V-Varen Nagasaki.

25'

Kashima Antlers

Offside, Kashima Antlers.

23'

T. Matsumoto

Yellow card for T. Matsumoto (V-Varen Nagasaki) for foul.

22'

J. Junior

Attempt saved. J. Junior (V-Varen Nagasaki), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

18'

J. Junior

Attempt saved. J. Junior (V-Varen Nagasaki), left-footed shot. xG 0.12.

17'

Élber

Attempt saved. Élber (Kashima Antlers), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

16'

V-Varen Nagasaki

Corner, V-Varen Nagasaki.

14'

Kashima Antlers

Corner, Kashima Antlers.

13'

Kashima Antlers

Corner, Kashima Antlers.

5'

A. Čavrić

Goal! Kashima Antlers 2-0 V-Varen Nagasaki. A. Čavrić (Kashima Antlers) scores, assisted by H. Hayashi.

2'

L. Ceará

Goal! Kashima Antlers 1-0 V-Varen Nagasaki. L. Ceará (Kashima Antlers) converts the penalty.

1'

Kick-off: Kashima Antlers vs V-Varen Nagasaki.

Where the money is

187975 EUR matched · captured 1 week, 6 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 105502 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

94.8%

-4.2 vs price

Draw 200.0 · implied 0.5%

2.7%

+2.2 vs price

Away 890.0 · implied 0.1%

2.7%

+2.6 vs price

Half time 229 EUR · live

Home 1.02 · implied 98.0%

89.3%

-8.8 vs price

Away 6.2 · implied 16.1%

10.1%

-6.1 vs price

Draw 2.62 · implied 38.2%

0.0%

-38.2 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 25156 EUR · live

Over 12.0 · implied 8.3%

71.8%

+63.5 vs price

Under 1.08 · implied 92.6%

28.2%

-64.4 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 2682 EUR · live

Over 1.87 · implied 53.5%

53.0%

-0.5 vs price

Under 2.16 · implied 46.3%

47.0%

+0.7 vs price

11 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG (estimated)

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

2' ⚽ L. Ceará (pen)1–0

5' ⚽ A. Čavrić · assist H. Hayashi2–0

23' T. Matsumoto · Foul

43' J. Junior · Foul

Half-time · 2–0

46' 🔁 R. Ogawa ◂ S. Omori

54' 🔁 K. Yasuda ◂ T. Matsumoto

55' 🔁 Y. Matsumura ◂ Élber

67' 🔁 Y. Ryogo ◂ J. Junior

67' 🔁 S. Ryosuke ◂ A. Ikki

72' 🔁 K. Misao ◂ G. Shibasaki

72' 🔁 Y. Suzuki ◂ A. Čavrić

82' K. Yasuda · Foul

85' 🔁 S. Takashi ◂ Y. Hotaru

85' 🔁 O. Hijiri ◂ A. Masuyama

85' 🔁 H. Tokuda ◂ L. Ceará

Full-time · 2–0

Coaches

Toru Oniki

Takuya Takagi

Recent form

Kashima Antlers

WHGamba Osaka2-0

WHVentforet Kofu3-1

DAKawasaki Frontale3-3

LAVissel Kobe1-2

LHUrawa Red Diamonds0-1

V-Varen Nagasaki

DAJEF United Chiba1-1

LAShimizu S-Pulse1-2

DHCerezo Osaka1-1

WHNagoya Grampus2-0

LAVissel Kobe1-3

About this match

**Kashima's home fortress meets a struggling Nagasaki side with a mountain to climb.** This is peak David vs. Goliath energy — the Antlers are rolling at the Kashima Soccer Stadium while V-Varen are desperately hunting wins. 🏟️

Kashima have won their last two at home and look genuinely dangerous in attack right now. Nagasaki, meanwhile, are stuck in neutral with just one win in five — they'll need to be compact and clinical to nick anything here.

Key storylines:

- **Kashima's home dominance** — two straight wins at the Soccer Stadium with goals flowing freely; Nagasaki have no answer to this form yet
- **G. Shibasaki and M. Bueno** controlling the midfield for Kashima; Nagasaki's **Y. Egawa and A. Masuyama** need to disrupt the rhythm early
- **L. Ceará and Y. Suzuki** spearheading Kashima's attack against a Nagasaki backline that's conceded in four of their last five

Expected lineups:

- **Kashima Antlers**: T. Hayakawa, R. Ogawa, N. Ueda, T. H. Kim, G. Shibasaki, M. Bueno, K. Misao, Y. Matsumura, L. Ceará, Y. Suzuki
- **V-Varen Nagasaki**: G. Masaaki, Y. Shunya, S. Ryosuke, A. Ikki, Y. Egawa, A. Masuyama, Y. Hotaru, R. Yamada, M. Hasegawa, T. Santana, N. Campbell

Prediction:

**Kashima 2-0 V-Varen Nagasaki** — The Antlers are the clear lean; home advantage, form, and the perfect matchup make this a routine three points. 🎯

Match facts

Stadium

Kashima Soccer Stadium

City

Kashima

Referee

Hiroki Kasahara

3.03 yellows/match · 34 matches

Kickoff

17 Oct, 06:00 UTC

Competition

J1 League

Highlights & clips

Kashima Antlers 4-4-2 · 3-4-2-1 V-Varen Nagasaki

1 T. Hayakawa 7.9 23 K. Tsukui 6.7 55 N. Ueda 7.6 5 I. Sekigawa 7.3 7 R. Ogawa 6.8 ↑ 46' 24 H. Hayashi 6.8 6 K. Misao 6.7 ↑ 72' 8 M. Bueno 7.6 27 Y. Matsumura 6.8 ↑ 55' 34 H. Tokuda 6.7 ↑ 85' 40 Y. Suzuki 6.5 ↑ 72' 1 G. Masaaki 6.0 25 T. Ominami 6.9 50 S. Ryosuke 6.7 ↑ 67' 31 K. Doi 6.5 22 O. Hijiri 6.6 ↑ 85' 19 S. Takashi 6.6 ↑ 85' 41 M. Hasegawa 7.3 23 Y. Shunya 6.6 10 M. Jesus 7.5 7 K. Yasuda 6.8 ↑ 54' 18 Y. Ryogo 6.3 ↑ 67'

Substitutes

21GT. Yamada 19DS. Omori↓ 46'7.1 3DT. H. Kim 35DA. Motosuna 77MA. Čavrić↓ 72'8.4 17MÉlber↓ 55'7.3 10MG. Shibasaki↓ 72'7.1 9FL. Ceará↓ 85'7.1 30FM. Yoshida

Coach: Toru Oniki

Substitutes

13GH. Go 29DA. Ikki↓ 67'6.4 34MT. Matsumoto↓ 54'6.9 5MY. Hotaru↓ 85'6.5 88MA. Masuyama↓ 85'5.9 24MR. Yamada 21MD. Pituca 99FJ. Junior↓ 67'6.6 8FI. Yuto

Coach: Takuya Takagi

Top stats

49%Possession51%

1.41Expected goals (xG)1.1

5Total shots16

3Shots on target4

2Big chances3

2Corners5

Shots

1Shots off target9

1Blocked shots3

3Shots inside box11

2Shots outside box5

2Big chances scored0

0Big chances missed3

Attack

22Touches in box23

65Final third entries63

2Offsides1

18Free kicks13

2Fouled in final third2

Passing

474Passes488

405Accurate passes420

23/52 (44%)Long balls24/46 (52%)

1/14 (7%)Crosses5/23 (22%)

10Throw-ins19

Duels

52Duels48

37/71 (52%)Ground duels34/71 (48%)

12/24 (50%)Aerial duels12/24 (50%)

4/13 (31%)Dribbles8/17 (47%)

4Dispossessed6

Defending

15Tackles13

60Tackles won62

8Interceptions14

24Clearances20

43Recoveries48

Discipline

13Fouls19

0Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

10Goal kicks2

1Punches0

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Kashima 62%

22%

Nagasaki 16%

Who winsKashima to win (DNB) 80% · 1.19 @ Betano

1X2Kashima to win 62% · 1.85 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 56% · 4.00 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 78% · 1.95 @ William Hill

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 68% · 1.58 @ Pinnacle

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 56% · 1.97 @ Pinnacle

BTTSBoth teams to score 53% · 3.40 @ Bet365

CornersOver 8.5 corners 56% · 1.47 @ Pinnacle

1X2Draw 22% · 2.77 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 64% · 1.45 @ Pinnacle

1X2Nagasaki to win 16% · 5.40 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.50

Kashima Antlers

4.22

Draw

5.85

V-Varen Nagasaki

Double Chanceconsensus

1.12

Kashima Antlers or Draw

1.20

Kashima Antlers or V-Varen Nagasaki

2.50

Draw or V-Varen Nagasaki

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.80

Yes

1.93

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

2.62

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

11.00

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

12.15

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.20

Over 1.50

4.17

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.70

Over 2.50

2.12

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.70

Over 3.50

1.44

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

5.15

Over 4.50

1.15

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.18

Kashima Antlers

4.34

V-Varen Nagasaki

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.24

Over 7.50

3.40

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.46

Over 8.50

2.50

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.79

Over 9.50

1.95

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.25

Over 10.50

1.58

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

2.85

Over 11.50

1.36

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

Kashima Antlers to win or draw

✓

84% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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