Kashiwa Reysol 1-3 Nagoya Grampus: Stats & xG

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Kashiwa Reysol 1-3 Nagoya Grampus.

90+4'

Kashiwa Reysol

Corner, Kashiwa Reysol.

90'

4 minutes of added time.

90'

M. Hosoya

Attempt saved. M. Hosoya (Kashiwa Reysol), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

89'

R. Harakawa

Attempt missed. R. Harakawa (Kashiwa Reysol), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

89'

Y. Yamagishi

Attempt missed. Y. Yamagishi (Nagoya Grampus), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

86'

T. Takamine

Substitution, Nagoya Grampus: Y. Sato comes on for T. Takamine.

83'

N. Nakagawa

Attempt blocked. N. Nakagawa (Kashiwa Reysol), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

83'

T. Kubo

Attempt saved. T. Kubo (Kashiwa Reysol), right-footed shot. xG 0.28.

79'

Y. Yamagishi

Goal! Kashiwa Reysol 1-3 Nagoya Grampus. Y. Yamagishi (Nagoya Grampus) scores, assisted by H. Koda.

78'

T. Kubo

Attempt missed. T. Kubo (Kashiwa Reysol), left-footed shot. xG 0.13.

77'

T. Morishima

Substitution, Nagoya Grampus: M. Ono comes on for T. Morishima.

77'

Y. Nogami

Substitution, Nagoya Grampus: T. Koyamatsu comes on for Y. Nogami.

77'

R. Izumi

Substitution, Nagoya Grampus: S. Tokumoto comes on for R. Izumi.

75'

Kashiwa Reysol

Corner, Kashiwa Reysol.

73'

S. Fujio

Substitution, Kashiwa Reysol: M. Hosoya comes on for S. Fujio.

70'

T. Takamine

Attempt missed. T. Takamine (Nagoya Grampus), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

69'

H. Koda

Attempt missed. H. Koda (Nagoya Grampus), left-footed shot. xG 0.09.

68'

K. Endo

Substitution, Kashiwa Reysol: K. Yuba comes on for K. Endo.

68'

Y. Konishi

Substitution, Kashiwa Reysol: R. Harakawa comes on for Y. Konishi.

63'

Y. Kimura

Substitution, Nagoya Grampus: Y. Yamagishi comes on for Y. Kimura.

61'

H. Koda

Attempt saved. H. Koda (Nagoya Grampus), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.04.

58'

Kashiwa Reysol

Corner, Kashiwa Reysol.

57'

K. Nagai

Substitution, Nagoya Grampus: H. Koda comes on for K. Nagai.

56'

Kashiwa Reysol

Corner, Kashiwa Reysol.

56'

N. Nakagawa

Attempt missed. N. Nakagawa (Kashiwa Reysol), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

52'

D. Sugioka

Yellow card for D. Sugioka (Kashiwa Reysol) for foul.

52'

Kashiwa Reysol

Corner, Kashiwa Reysol.

50'

Nagoya Grampus

Corner, Nagoya Grampus.

48'

Nagoya Grampus

Offside, Nagoya Grampus.

46'

H. Yamauchi

Substitution, Kashiwa Reysol: Y. Segawa comes on for H. Yamauchi.

46'

S. Toshima

Substitution, Kashiwa Reysol: W. Harada comes on for S. Toshima.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Kashiwa Reysol 1-2 Nagoya Grampus.

45+10'

Y. Konishi

Attempt blocked. Y. Konishi (Kashiwa Reysol), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

45+9'

N. Nakagawa

Attempt blocked. N. Nakagawa (Kashiwa Reysol), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

45+8'

Kashiwa Reysol

Corner, Kashiwa Reysol.

45+8'

S. Fujio

Attempt blocked. S. Fujio (Kashiwa Reysol), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

45+3'

S. Fujio

Attempt blocked. S. Fujio (Kashiwa Reysol), left-footed shot. xG 0.08.

45+3'

Kashiwa Reysol

Corner, Kashiwa Reysol.

45'

9 minutes of added time.

36'

Y. Kimura

Goal! Kashiwa Reysol 1-2 Nagoya Grampus. Y. Kimura (Nagoya Grampus) scores, assisted by K. Nagai.

30'

K. Endo

Attempt missed. K. Endo (Kashiwa Reysol), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

25'

H. Yamauchi

Attempt missed. H. Yamauchi (Kashiwa Reysol), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

23'

K. Endo

Goal! Kashiwa Reysol 1-1 Nagoya Grampus. K. Endo (Kashiwa Reysol) scores, assisted by S. Fujio.

20'

S. Fujio

Attempt blocked. S. Fujio (Kashiwa Reysol), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.08.

20'

K. Endo

Attempt missed. K. Endo (Kashiwa Reysol), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.09.

17'

Y. Kimura

Attempt missed. Y. Kimura (Nagoya Grampus), right-footed shot. xG 0.31.

16'

Y. Koizumi

Yellow card for Y. Koizumi (Kashiwa Reysol) for argument.

14'

Y. Kimura

Attempt missed. Y. Kimura (Nagoya Grampus), header on the counter. xG 0.17.

13'

T. Wakahara

Substitution, Kashiwa Reysol: K. Nagai comes on for T. Wakahara.

6'

T. Uchida

Goal! Kashiwa Reysol 0-1 Nagoya Grampus. T. Uchida (Nagoya Grampus) scores, assisted by Y. Kimura.

1'

Kick-off: Kashiwa Reysol vs Nagoya Grampus.

Where the money is

503990 EUR matched · captured 1 week, 6 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 230687 EUR · live

Away 1.01 · implied 99.0%

63.3%

-35.8 vs price

Home 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

29.9%

+29.8 vs price

Draw 55.0 · implied 1.8%

7.8%

+6.0 vs price

Half time 977 EUR · live

Draw 3.5 · implied 28.6%

47.6%

+19.0 vs price

Away 1.56 · implied 64.1%

30.6%

-33.5 vs price

Home 11.0 · implied 9.1%

21.6%

+12.5 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 17111 EUR · live

Over 1.12 · implied 89.3%

84.5%

-4.8 vs price

Under 9.2 · implied 10.9%

15.5%

+4.6 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 666 EUR · live

Under 2.12 · implied 47.2%

91.8%

+44.7 vs price

Over 1.89 · implied 52.9%

8.1%

-44.8 vs price

15 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG (estimated)

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

6' ⚽ T. Uchida · assist Y. Kimura0–1

13' 🔁 K. Nagai ◂ T. Wakahara

16' Y. Koizumi · Argument

23' ⚽ K. Endo · assist S. Fujio1–1

36' ⚽ Y. Kimura · assist K. Nagai1–2

Half-time · 1–2

46' 🔁 W. Harada ◂ S. Toshima

46' 🔁 Y. Segawa ◂ H. Yamauchi

52' D. Sugioka · Foul

57' 🔁 H. Koda ◂ K. Nagai

63' 🔁 Y. Yamagishi ◂ Y. Kimura

68' 🔁 R. Harakawa ◂ Y. Konishi

68' 🔁 K. Yuba ◂ K. Endo

73' 🔁 M. Hosoya ◂ S. Fujio

77' 🔁 S. Tokumoto ◂ R. Izumi

77' 🔁 T. Koyamatsu ◂ Y. Nogami

77' 🔁 M. Ono ◂ T. Morishima

79' ⚽ Y. Yamagishi · assist H. Koda1–3

86' 🔁 Y. Sato ◂ T. Takamine

Full-time · 1–3

Coaches

Ricardo Rodriguez

Mihailo Petrovic

Recent form

Kashiwa Reysol

WHVissel Kobe4-2

WHFC Imabari4-0

WAMachida Zelvia4-2

WAKyoto Sanga FC3-2

LHYokohama F. Marinos0-2

Nagoya Grampus

WAKawasaki Frontale2-1

LAFC Tokyo0-1

LAV-Varen Nagasaki0-2

LHMachida Zelvia1-3

LASanfrecce Hiroshima0-3

About this match

**Kashiwa are absolutely humming right now** — four wins in five matches and scoring buckets at home. Nagoya? They're spiraling hard with just one win in their last five. 🔥

Kashiwa have been relentless on their own patch, putting four past Kobe and Machida. Nagoya meanwhile can't catch a break, losing three straight away from home. The gap between these two looks massive.

Key storylines:

- **Kashiwa's attacking flow**: T. Kubo and Y. Segawa have been central to the goal-glut at Sankyo Frontier. Can they find space again?
- **Nagoya's defensive fragility**: H. Fujii and the backline have shipped goals for fun lately — facing Kashiwa in this mood is a nightmare matchup
- **Home fortress advantage**: Kashiwa haven't dropped points at their stadium in recent weeks; Nagoya are winless on the road

Expected lineups:

- **Kashiwa Reysol**: R. Kojima, D. Sugioka, T. Koga, S. Baba, W. Harada, K. Kumasaka, N. Nakagawa, T. Kubo, Y. Segawa, Y. Koizumi
- **Nagoya Grampus**: A. Pisano, S. Tokumoto, H. Fujii, Y. Nogami, T. Hara, K. Nakayama, S. Inagaki, Y. Yamagishi

Prediction:

**Kashiwa Reysol 3–0 Nagoya Grampus**

Kashiwa's momentum and home advantage are just too much for a fragile Nagoya side right now.

Match facts

Stadium

Sankyo Frontier Kashiwa Stadium

City

Kashiwa

Referee

Akihiko Ikeuchi

2.26 yellows/match · 43 matches

Kickoff

17 Oct, 10:00 UTC

Competition

J1 League

Highlights & clips

Kashiwa Reysol 3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1 Nagoya Grampus

29 K. Nagai 7.3 ↑ 13' 42 W. Harada 6.0 ↑ 46' 4 T. Koga 6.4 26 D. Sugioka 5.9 24 T. Kubo 6.8 44 K. Yuba 6.6 ↑ 68' 39 N. Nakagawa 7.0 40 R. Harakawa 6.9 ↑ 68' 8 Y. Koizumi 6.5 20 Y. Segawa 6.2 ↑ 46' 9 M. Hosoya 6.7 ↑ 73' 1 D. Schmidt 7.4 70 T. Hara 6.6 13 H. Fujii 7.9 3 Y. Sato 6.7 ↑ 86' 17 T. Uchida 7.1 15 S. Inagaki 6.8 55 S. Tokumoto 6.7 ↑ 77' 58 T. Koyamatsu 6.8 ↑ 77' 41 M. Ono 6.5 ↑ 77' 11 Y. Yamagishi 7.3 ↑ 63' 19 H. Koda 6.9 ↑ 57'

Substitutes

77GT. Wakahara↓ 13'6.3 2DH. Mitsumaru 5MK. Endo↓ 68'8.0 28MS. Toshima↓ 46'6.7 21MY. Konishi↓ 68'6.6 19MH. Nakama 87FH. Yamauchi↓ 46'6.6 15FS. Fujio↓ 73'6.5 30FS. Furuya

Coach: Ricardo Rodriguez

Substitutes

35GA. Pisano 2DY. Nogami↓ 77'6.6 31MT. Takamine↓ 86'6.8 14MT. Morishima↓ 77'6.6 27MK. Nakayama 22FY. Kimura↓ 63'8.5 18FK. Nagai↓ 57'7.3 7FR. Izumi↓ 77'6.9 10FMateus

Coach: Mihailo Petrovic

Top stats

59%Possession41%

1.07Expected goals (xG)1.72

15Total shots9

3Shots on target4

1Big chances3

7Corners2

Shots

6Shots off target5

6Blocked shots0

7Shots inside box6

8Shots outside box3

0Big chances scored2

1Big chances missed1

Attack

28Touches in box14

60Final third entries55

1Offsides1

10Free kicks11

0Fouled in final third1

Passing

609Passes422

507Accurate passes327

21/53 (40%)Long balls23/69 (33%)

3/15 (20%)Crosses2/12 (17%)

31Throw-ins14

Duels

50Duels50

23/54 (43%)Ground duels31/54 (57%)

21/34 (62%)Aerial duels13/34 (38%)

4/10 (40%)Dribbles2/10 (20%)

12Dispossessed2

Defending

10Tackles17

20Tackles won65

5Interceptions16

20Clearances34

49Recoveries54

Discipline

11Fouls10

2Yellow cards0

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

4Goal kicks7

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Kashiwa 59%

22%

Nagoya 19%

Who winsKashiwa to win (DNB) 77% · 1.28 @ Betano

1X2Kashiwa to win 59% · 1.95 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 60% · 3.60 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 81% · 1.83 @ William Hill

BTTSBoth teams to score 58% · 3.00 @ Bet365

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 66% · 1.63 @ Pinnacle

CornersOver 8.5 corners 57% · 1.41 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 55% · 2.01 @ Pinnacle

1X2Draw 22% · 2.83 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 60% · 1.55 @ Pinnacle

1X2Nagoya to win 19% · 4.55 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.59

Kashiwa Reysol

4.22

Draw

4.90

Nagoya Grampus

Double Chanceconsensus

1.17

Kashiwa Reysol or Draw

1.20

Kashiwa Reysol or Nagoya Grampus

2.25

Draw or Nagoya Grampus

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.60

Yes

2.20

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

3.00

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

9.50

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.01

Over 0.50

14.10

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.16

Over 1.50

4.82

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.57

Over 2.50

2.36

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.39

Over 3.50

1.52

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

4.37

Over 4.50

1.19

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.25

Kashiwa Reysol

3.50

Nagoya Grampus

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.21

Over 7.50

3.25

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.41

Over 8.50

2.48

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.75

Over 9.50

1.98

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.18

Over 10.50

1.61

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

2.73

Over 11.50

1.34

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

Kashiwa Reysol to win or draw

✗

81% confidence

Over 1.5 goals

✓

81% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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