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Shimizu S-Pulse
Gamba Osaka
T. Myojin
Shimizu S-Pulse
Shimizu S-Pulse
Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka
Gamba Osaka
Shimizu S-Pulse
Shimizu S-Pulse
Shimizu S-Pulse
Shimizu S-Pulse
Takayuki Yoshida
Shimizu S-Pulse
Gamba Osaka
Shimizu S-Pulse
4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1
Gamba Osaka
Commentary
90'
Full-time. Shimizu S-Pulse 2-2 Gamba Osaka.
90+5'
Goal! Shimizu S-Pulse 2-2 Gamba Osaka. I. Jebali (Gamba Osaka) scores, assisted by T. Kishimoto.
90+4'
Attempt missed. T. Fujii (Shimizu S-Pulse), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.17.
90'
5 minutes of added time.
80'
Shimizu S-Pulse
Corner, Shimizu S-Pulse.
77'
Gamba Osaka
Offside, Gamba Osaka.
75'
T. Myojin
Yellow card for T. Myojin (Gamba Osaka) for argument.
66'
Shimizu S-Pulse
Corner, Shimizu S-Pulse.
58'
Shimizu S-Pulse
Corner, Shimizu S-Pulse.
54'
Gamba Osaka
Corner, Gamba Osaka.
52'
Attempt missed. R. Yamashita (Gamba Osaka), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.04.
51'
Gamba Osaka
Corner, Gamba Osaka.
48'
Gamba Osaka
Corner, Gamba Osaka.
48'
Gamba Osaka
Corner, Gamba Osaka.
46'
The second half is under way.
45'
Half-time. Shimizu S-Pulse 2-0 Gamba Osaka.
45'
2 minutes of added time.
42'
Goal! Shimizu S-Pulse 2-0 Gamba Osaka. K. Matsuzaki (Shimizu S-Pulse) scores, assisted by O. Se-Hun.
25'
Shimizu S-Pulse
Corner, Shimizu S-Pulse.
22'
Shimizu S-Pulse
Corner, Shimizu S-Pulse.
9'
Goal! Shimizu S-Pulse 1-0 Gamba Osaka. Y. Honda (Shimizu S-Pulse) scores, assisted by M. Yumiba.
8'
Shimizu S-Pulse
Corner, Shimizu S-Pulse.
8'
Shimizu S-Pulse
Corner, Shimizu S-Pulse.
7'
Attempt missed. K. Matsuzaki (Shimizu S-Pulse), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.04.
1'
Kick-off: Shimizu S-Pulse vs Gamba Osaka.
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
40022 EUR · live
Home
11.0 · implied 9.1%
80.7%
+71.6 vs price
Draw
1.1 · implied 90.9%
11.0%
-79.9 vs price
Away
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
8.6%
+8.5 vs price
Half time
98 EUR · live
Home
3.6 · implied 27.8%
95.4%
+67.6 vs price
Draw
2.28 · implied 43.9%
3.1%
-40.8 vs price
Away
3.65 · implied 27.4%
0.0%
-27.4 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
19562 EUR · live
Over
2.6 · implied 38.5%
73.3%
+34.8 vs price
Under
1.65 · implied 60.6%
26.7%
-33.9 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
786 EUR · live
Under
1.1 · implied 90.9%
89.4%
-1.5 vs price
Over
7.0 · implied 14.3%
10.7%
-3.6 vs price
10 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
9'
⚽
Y. Honda · assist M. Yumiba1–0
23'
R. Yamashita · Argument
24'
R. Hatsuse · Argument
42'
⚽
K. Matsuzaki · assist O. Se-Hun2–0
Half-time · 2–0
46'
🔁
E. Adams ◂ R. Mito
46'
🔁
T. Usami ◂ Y. Toshida
47'
H. Sugai · Foul
64'
🔁
T. Fujii ◂ K. Inoue
65'
🔁
R. Meshino ◂ Welton
75'
🔁
Y. Shimamoto ◂ O. Se-Hun
75'
🔁
Y. Yoshida ◂ M. Brunetti
75'
T. Myojin · Argument
76'
🔁
T. Ogashiwa ◂ S. Fukuoka
77'
🔁
R. Hatsuse ◂ S. Nakano
84'
⚽
R. Meshino2–1
Full-time · 2–2
90'
🔁
S. Park ◂ K. Matsuzaki
90'+5
⚽
I. Jebali · assist T. Kishimoto2–2
Coaches
Takayuki YoshidaTomokazu Myojin 
Recent form
Shimizu S-PulseWAMito Hollyhock2-1
WHV-Varen Nagasaki2-1
WHJEF United Chiba2-1
WHAvispa Fukuoka1-0
LAKawasaki Frontale1-3
Gamba OsakaLAKashima Antlers0-2
WHTokushima Vortis5-0
LHVissel Kobe0-1
LHFC Tokyo0-2
LAJEF United Chiba0-2
About this match
**Shimizu's flying high and Gamba's a mess — this should be a statement win.** 🔥 The home side are on an absolute tear while Osaka have imploded lately, and the head-to-head tells you everything: Gamba own the history, but Shimizu are the team to beat *right now*.
Shimizu S-Pulse have won four of their last five, looking sharp at home with back-to-back 2-1 victories. Gamba Osaka, by contrast, are limping through a four-loss slump — one bright spot (that 5-0 thrashing of Tokushima) doesn't erase the damage from losses to Kashima and Vissel Kobe.
Key storylines:
- **Shimizu's offensive rhythm** has them scoring twice in three straight home games; **R. Germain** and **K. Matsuzaki** leading the charge
- **Gamba's defensive fragility** exposed badly in recent weeks, despite having **S. Nakatani** and **S. Fukuoka** in the backline
- **Home advantage** at IAI Stadium Nihondaira is real — Shimizu's run suggests they're clicking in front of their crowd
Expected lineups:
- **Shimizu S-Pulse**: T. Umeda, Y. Yoshida, Y. Honda, M. Brunetti, H. Sugai, Y. Takahashi, M. Yumiba, Capixaba, R. Germain, K. Matsuzaki
- **Gamba Osaka**: J. Ichimori, R. Hatsuse, S. Nakatani, S. Fukuoka, T. Kishimoto, S. Abe, R. Mito, R. Meshino, A. Uenaka, R. Yamashita
Prediction:
**Shimizu S-Pulse 2–0 Gamba Osaka.** Lean Shimizu to control this one from whistle to whistle. ✌️
Match facts
Stadium
IAI Stadium Nihondaira
City
Shizuoka
Referee
Kickoff
17 Oct, 04:00 UTC
Competition
J1 League
Highlights & clips
Shimizu S-Pulse
4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1
Gamba Osaka
16
T. Umeda
6.5
24
H. Sugai
6.1
4
S. Hasukawa
6.8
15
Y. Honda
7.9
28
Y. Yoshida
6.2
↑ 75'
37
K. Koizumi
6.4
17
M. Yumiba
7.0
14
S. Park
↑ 90'
13
R. Germain
6.2
47
Y. Shimamoto
6.1
↑ 75'
50
T. Fujii
7.2
↑ 64'
22
J. Ichimori
6.5
15
T. Kishimoto
6.8
4
S. Nakatani
7.0
24
T. Ogashiwa
6.4
↑ 76'
21
R. Hatsuse
6.6
↑ 77'
13
S. Abe
6.1
20
E. Adams
6.3
↑ 46'
17
R. Yamashita
6.4
11
I. Jebali
7.1
8
R. Meshino
7.4
↑ 65'
7
T. Usami
7.1
↑ 46'
Substitutes
1GY. Oki
25DM. Brunetti↓ 75'7.1
21MK. Matsuzaki↓ 90'7.7
8MK. Inoue↓ 64'6.8
7MCapixaba
18MT. Hirato
81MK. Kozuka
9FO. Se-Hun↓ 75'8.0
19FK. Kosuke
Coach: Takayuki Yoshida
Substitutes
1GM. Higashiguchi
2DS. Fukuoka↓ 76'6.6
47DS. Nakano↓ 77'6.5
28DS. Fujiwara
67DS. Sasaki
97MWelton↓ 65'6.9
27MR. Mito↓ 46'6.4
16MT. Suzuki
41FY. Toshida↓ 46'6.2
Coach: Tomokazu Myojin
Top stats
35%Possession65%
1.0Expected goals (xG)1.48
12Total shots12
5Shots on target4
0Big chances2
7Corners4
Shots
6Shots off target5
1Blocked shots3
8Shots inside box8
4Shots outside box4
0Big chances missed2
Attack
22Touches in box15
61Final third entries58
0Offsides1
13Free kicks9
2Fouled in final third3
Passing
265Passes497
162Accurate passes399
31/73 (42%)Long balls34/66 (52%)
5/19 (26%)Crosses3/17 (18%)
16Throw-ins24
Duels
61Duels39
40/71 (56%)Ground duels31/71 (44%)
32/47 (68%)Aerial duels15/47 (32%)
7/14 (50%)Dribbles10/17 (59%)
7Dispossessed14
Defending
21Tackles14
62Tackles won50
11Interceptions4
27Clearances20
44Recoveries59
Discipline
9Fouls13
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
Goalkeeping
2Saves3
12Goal kicks9
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers
Who winsGamba Osaka to win (DNB) 50% · 2.20 @ Betano
BTTSBoth teams to score 56% · 3.25 @ Bet365
1X2Draw 28% · 2.50 @ Bet365
CornersOver 8.5 corners 58% · 1.50 @ Pinnacle
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 75% · 2.10 @ 1xBet
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 51% · 4.50 @ 1xBet
1X2Gamba Osaka to win 31% · 3.10 @ Bet365
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 66% · 1.58 @ Pinnacle
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 54% · 1.93 @ Pinnacle
1X2Shimizu to win 41% · 2.72 @ 1xBet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 67% · 1.36 @ betfair
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.42
Shimizu S-Pulse
3.33
Draw
2.84
Gamba Osaka
Double Chanceconsensus
1.40
Shimizu S-Pulse or Draw
1.29
Shimizu S-Pulse or Gamba Osaka
1.53
Draw or Gamba Osaka
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.69
Yes
2.05
No
Home Win to Nilconsensus
4.00
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
5.50
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.03
Over 0.50
9.60
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.27
Over 1.50
3.49
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.91
Over 2.50
1.87
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
3.27
Over 3.50
1.31
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
6.70
Over 4.50
1.08
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.67
Shimizu S-Pulse
2.08
Gamba Osaka
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.24
Over 7.50
3.02
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.48
Over 8.50
2.41
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.87
Over 9.50
1.90
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.29
Over 10.50
1.54
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
2.83
Over 11.50
1.28
Under 11.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.1%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.1%.
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