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Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
Mito Hollyhock
Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
Fagiano Okayama
Mito Hollyhock
Mito Hollyhock
Fagiano Okayama
Takashi Kiyama
Fagiano Okayama
Mito Hollyhock
Fagiano Okayama
3-4-2-1 · 4-4-2
Mito Hollyhock
Commentary
90'
Full-time. Fagiano Okayama 2-0 Mito Hollyhock.
90+5'
Fagiano Okayama
Offside, Fagiano Okayama.
90'
5 minutes of added time.
86'
Attempt saved. Y. Tatsuta (Fagiano Okayama), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.07.
76'
Fagiano Okayama
Offside, Fagiano Okayama.
72'
Mito Hollyhock
Corner, Mito Hollyhock.
64'
Fagiano Okayama
Corner, Fagiano Okayama.
57'
Attempt missed. O. Alionço (Fagiano Okayama), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.04.
52'
Goal! Fagiano Okayama 1-0 Mito Hollyhock. A. Esaka (Fagiano Okayama) scores, assisted by Lucao.
46'
The second half is under way.
45'
Half-time. Fagiano Okayama 0-0 Mito Hollyhock.
34'
Fagiano Okayama
Offside, Fagiano Okayama.
32'
Fagiano Okayama
Corner, Fagiano Okayama.
28'
Attempt blocked. E. Miyamoto (Fagiano Okayama), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.03.
27'
Fagiano Okayama
Corner, Fagiano Okayama.
27'
Fagiano Okayama
Offside, Fagiano Okayama.
26'
Mito Hollyhock
Corner, Mito Hollyhock.
21'
Mito Hollyhock
Offside, Mito Hollyhock.
11'
Attempt missed. E. Miyamoto (Fagiano Okayama), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.05.
10'
Fagiano Okayama
Corner, Fagiano Okayama.
1'
Kick-off: Fagiano Okayama vs Mito Hollyhock.
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
93747 EUR · live
Home
1.01 · implied 99.0%
89.3%
-9.8 vs price
Draw
110.0 · implied 0.9%
7.0%
+6.1 vs price
Away
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
3.8%
+3.7 vs price
Half time
201 EUR
Away
6.2 · implied 16.1%
52.4%
+36.2 vs price
Home
2.4 · implied 41.7%
27.5%
-14.2 vs price
Draw
2.28 · implied 43.9%
20.2%
-23.7 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
54733 EUR · live
Under
1.01 · implied 99.0%
87.1%
-11.9 vs price
Over
19.5 · implied 5.1%
12.9%
+7.7 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
64 EUR
Over
11.5 · implied 8.7%
100.0%
+91.3 vs price
14 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
Half-time · 0–0
52'
⚽
A. Esaka · assist Lucao1–0
57'
🔁
H. Yamamoto ◂ J. Okumura
57'
🔁
K. Tada ◂ R. Nemoto
59'
H. Motoyama · Foul
65'
⚽
A. Esaka2–0
66'
🔁
K. Shirai ◂ M. Matsumoto
66'
🔁
Y. Kamiya ◂ A. Esaka
68'
🔁
M. Nishihara ◂ K. Taniguchi
68'
🔁
P. Ferreira ◂ C. Kato
78'
🔁
S. Mori ◂ T. Yamane
78'
🔁
Y. Fujii ◂ S. Na
82'
🔁
R. Ieizumi ◂ Y. Funabashi
Full-time · 2–0
90'
🔁
K. Kawano ◂ Lucao
Coaches
Takashi KiyamaDaisuke Kimori 
Recent form
Fagiano OkayamaLHVissel Kobe0-3
LAAvispa Fukuoka1-2
WHJEF United Chiba1-0
LHKyoto Sanga FC1-2
WAUrawa Red Diamonds2-1
Mito HollyhockLHUrawa Red Diamonds0-1
LHShimizu S-Pulse1-2
LAYokohama F. Marinos0-2
LHKawasaki Frontale0-1
DAAvispa Fukuoka1-1
About this match
**Okayama's looking to build on a rare W while Mito rolls in winless and desperate** — this has midtable scrap written all over it. 🏟️
Fagiano just beat JEF United at home after a brutal pair of losses; they've got **just enough momentum** to fancy this. Mito, meanwhile, are in freefall—one draw in five is relegation-form territory, and a trip to an opponent with any rhythm is exactly the kind of fixture they can't afford to lose.
Key storylines:
- **Lucao** and the Okayama attack need to capitalize on a shaky Mito defense that's conceded in every loss
- **K. Nishikawa** and the Hollyhock backline are under serious pressure—they'll have to stay compact or get picked apart
- Home advantage and recent form give Fagiano the **psychological edge**, but Mito's desperation could spark a surprise
Expected lineups:
- **Fagiano Okayama**: L. Moser, Y. Tatsuta, H. Omori, S. Mori, O. Alionço, K. Shirai, S. Na, A. Esaka, Lucao
- **Mito Hollyhock**: K. Nishikawa, T. Mase, K. Itakura, K. Okamoto, T. Semba, K. Taniguchi, J. Okumura, Y. Torikai, A. Watanabe, K. Uchino
Prediction:
**Okayama 2–0 Mito**. Home comfort and Mito's defensive brittleness tilt this slightly toward the hosts. 📌
Match facts
Stadium
JFE Harenokuni Stadium
City
Okayama
Kickoff
21 Oct, 10:00 UTC
Competition
J1 League
Highlights & clips
Fagiano Okayama
3-4-2-1 · 4-4-2
Mito Hollyhock
1
L. Moser
7.7
26
H. Motoyama
7.3
48
Y. Tatsuta
7.5
43
Y. Suzuki
7.9
51
K. Shirai
6.7
↑ 66'
41
E. Miyamoto
6.3
80
O. Alionço
7.2
44
S. Mori
6.6
↑ 78'
55
Y. Fujii
6.5
↑ 78'
33
Y. Kamiya
6.7
↑ 66'
20
K. Kawano
↑ 90'
27
J. Słowik
6.1
25
T. Mase
6.4
15
Y. Kimoto
6.6
17
K. Itakura
6.4
16
Y. Tamura
6.6
39
H. Yamamoto
6.6
↑ 57'
50
R. Ieizumi
6.6
↑ 82'
38
H. Leonardo
7.0
44
M. Nishihara
6.6
↑ 68'
29
K. Tada
6.6
↑ 57'
33
P. Ferreira
6.2
↑ 68'
Substitutes
52GT. Hamada
88MT. Yamane↓ 78'6.7
28MM. Matsumoto↓ 66'6.6
7MR. Takeuchi
19MR. Sato
8FA. Esaka↓ 66'9.1
10FS. Na↓ 78'6.8
99FLucao↓ 90'6.6
9FL. Gaúcho
Coach: Takashi Kiyama
Substitutes
34GK. Nishikawa
2DM. Fofana
22MK. Taniguchi↓ 68'6.7
30MJ. Okumura↓ 57'6.5
20MY. Funabashi↓ 82'6.5
8MC. Kato↓ 68'6.2
3MK. Osaki
24MK. Yamazaki
9FR. Nemoto↓ 57'6.8
Coach: Daisuke Kimori
Top stats
42%Possession58%
1.22Expected goals (xG)0.53
13Total shots7
5Shots on target3
2Big chances1
4Corners2
Shots
5Shots off target2
3Blocked shots2
8Shots inside box3
5Shots outside box4
2Big chances missed1
Attack
22Touches in box10
57Final third entries62
5Offsides1
12Free kicks10
2Fouled in final third1
Passing
362Passes521
268Accurate passes410
17/40 (43%)Long balls25/69 (36%)
6/18 (33%)Crosses4/11 (36%)
36Throw-ins19
Duels
52Duels48
29/61 (48%)Ground duels32/61 (52%)
24/41 (59%)Aerial duels17/41 (41%)
5/13 (38%)Dribbles6/14 (43%)
8Dispossessed6
Defending
14Tackles16
71Tackles won69
14Interceptions14
11Clearances31
51Recoveries50
Discipline
10Fouls12
1Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
Goalkeeping
3Saves4
2Big saves0
6Goal kicks11
0Punches1
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers
Who winsOkayama to win (DNB) 67% · 1.31 @ Betano
1X2Okayama to win 53% · 2.15 @ William Hill
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 53% · 1.15 @ William Hill
CornersOver 8.5 corners 60% · 1.53 @ Pinnacle
1X2Draw 26% · 2.50 @ Bet365
BTTSBoth teams to score 50% · 3.75 @ Bet365
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 70% · 1.31 @ Pinnacle
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 63% · 1.52 @ Pinnacle
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 72% · 2.21 @ 1xBet
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 52% · 1.88 @ Pinnacle
1X2Mito to win 21% · 4.55 @ 1xBet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
1.75
Fagiano Okayama
3.60
Draw
4.50
Mito Hollyhock
Double Chanceconsensus
1.18
Fagiano Okayama or Draw
1.27
Fagiano Okayama or Mito Hollyhock
2.04
Draw or Mito Hollyhock
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
2.05
Yes
1.72
No
Home Win to Nilconsensus
2.80
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
7.50
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.04
Over 0.50
9.00
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.33
Over 1.50
3.25
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
2.05
Over 2.50
1.77
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
3.50
Over 3.50
1.29
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
7.30
Over 4.50
1.08
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.23
Fagiano Okayama
3.75
Mito Hollyhock
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.25
Over 7.50
2.98
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.50
Over 8.50
2.34
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.89
Over 9.50
1.88
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.33
Over 10.50
1.50
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
2.85
Over 11.50
1.27
Under 11.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.1%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.1%.
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