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Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
Nagoya Grampus
Mihailo Petrovic
Nagoya Grampus
Cerezo Osaka
Nagoya Grampus
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1
Cerezo Osaka
Commentary
90'
Full-time. Nagoya Grampus 1-1 Cerezo Osaka.
90+2'
Attempt blocked. R. Izumi (Nagoya Grampus), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.10.
90'
5 minutes of added time.
82'
Attempt missed. Y. Yamagishi (Nagoya Grampus), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.08.
81'
Nagoya Grampus
Corner, Nagoya Grampus.
80'
Cerezo Osaka
Offside, Cerezo Osaka.
65'
Attempt blocked. S. Inagaki (Nagoya Grampus), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.
64'
Nagoya Grampus
Corner, Nagoya Grampus.
62'
Goal! Nagoya Grampus 1-1 Cerezo Osaka. P. Sabbag (Cerezo Osaka) scores, assisted by L. Fernandes.
56'
Cerezo Osaka
Offside, Cerezo Osaka.
47'
Cerezo Osaka
Corner, Cerezo Osaka.
46'
Nagoya Grampus
Offside, Nagoya Grampus.
46'
The second half is under way.
45'
Half-time. Nagoya Grampus 1-0 Cerezo Osaka.
45+2'
Attempt saved. T. Takamine (Nagoya Grampus), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.02.
45+2'
Attempt missed. R. Izumi (Nagoya Grampus), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.04.
45'
3 minutes of added time.
45'
Attempt saved. J. Hernández (Cerezo Osaka), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.06.
41'
Attempt missed. T. Morishima (Nagoya Grampus), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.06.
37'
Nagoya Grampus
Offside, Nagoya Grampus.
17'
Nagoya Grampus
Offside, Nagoya Grampus.
3'
Goal! Nagoya Grampus 1-0 Cerezo Osaka. K. Nakayama (Nagoya Grampus) scores, assisted by T. Uchida.
1'
Kick-off: Nagoya Grampus vs Cerezo Osaka.
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
66823 EUR · live
Home
60.0 · implied 1.7%
55.6%
+54.0 vs price
Draw
1.05 · implied 95.2%
33.4%
-61.9 vs price
Away
13.5 · implied 7.4%
12.0%
+4.6 vs price
Half time
22 EUR
Draw
2.4 · implied 41.7%
98.0%
+56.3 vs price
Away
3.5 · implied 28.6%
1.6%
-27.0 vs price
Home
2.9 · implied 34.5%
0.6%
-33.9 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
45627 EUR · live
Over
12.5 · implied 8.0%
80.6%
+72.6 vs price
Under
1.05 · implied 95.2%
19.6%
-75.6 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
594 EUR
Under
1.16 · implied 86.2%
61.6%
-24.6 vs price
Over
7.4 · implied 13.5%
38.4%
+24.9 vs price
15 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
3'
⚽
K. Nakayama · assist T. Uchida1–0
26'
D. Cools · Foul
Half-time · 1–0
46'
Y. Sato · Foul
49'
S. Kagawa · Foul
59'
🔁
H. Koda ◂ T. Morishima
60'
🔁
Y. Yamagishi ◂ K. Nagai
60'
🔁
T. Koyamatsu ◂ K. Nakayama
62'
⚽
P. Sabbag · assist L. Fernandes1–1
66'
L. Fernandes · Foul
69'
🔁
S. Uejo ◂ Y. Komi
70'
🔁
M. Ono ◂ T. Uchida
81'
🔁
S. Sakuragawa ◂ P. Sabbag
Full-time · 1–1
90'
🔁
R. Sakata ◂ L. Fernandes
90'+4
H. Okuda · Foul
Coaches
Mihailo PetrovicPablo Machin 
Recent form
Nagoya GrampusWAKashiwa Reysol3-1
WAKawasaki Frontale2-1
LAFC Tokyo0-1
LAV-Varen Nagasaki0-2
LHMachida Zelvia1-3
Cerezo OsakaLHKawasaki Frontale2-4
DHYokohama F. Marinos0-0
WHKagoshima United2-0
DAV-Varen Nagasaki1-1
LASanfrecce Hiroshima1-6
About this match
**Nagoya's hosting a wounded Cerezo side, and their home record suggests they're ready to pounce.** 🔥 This is the kind of matchup where recent form becomes destiny.
Nagoya's grabbed back-to-back wins and look sharp at home, while Cerezo just shipped four goals to Kawasaki and haven't found rhythm. The Grampus also own a commanding h2h edge — **17 wins to 11** in their last 31 meetings.
Key storylines:
- **Nagoya's attacking thrust** through K. Nakayama and Y. Kimura will test Cerezo's shaky defense
- **Cerezo's inconsistency** (1W in five) gives Nagoya every reason to believe they can exploit gaps on the road
- **Home advantage at Toyota Stadium** has been Nagoya's fortress — expect them to press early
Expected lineups:
- **Nagoya Grampus**: D. Schmidt, H. Fujii, T. Hara, Y. Nogami, S. Inagaki, T. Takamine, K. Nakayama, Y. Kimura, R. Izumi, Y. Yamagishi
- **Cerezo Osaka**: K. Nakamura, R. Inoue, D. Cools, A. Ohata, S. Tanaka, J. Irvine, L. Fernandes, T. Andrade, S. Sakuragawa, P. Sabbag
Prediction:
**Nagoya 2-0 Cerezo.** The Grampus have the form, the head-to-head edge, and Cerezo's leaky defense makes this a lean toward the hosts. 💪
Match facts
Stadium
Toyota Stadium
City
Toyota
Kickoff
21 Oct, 10:00 UTC
Competition
J1 League
Highlights & clips
Nagoya Grampus
3-4-2-1 · 3-4-2-1
Cerezo Osaka
1
D. Schmidt
6.8
70
T. Hara
6.7
3
Y. Sato
8.1
31
T. Takamine
7.1
7
R. Izumi
6.4
15
S. Inagaki
6.7
19
H. Koda
6.6
↑ 59'
58
T. Koyamatsu
6.4
↑ 60'
41
M. Ono
7.1
↑ 70'
22
Y. Kimura
6.1
11
Y. Yamagishi
6.3
↑ 60'
23
K. Nakamura
7.1
27
D. Cools
6.9
97
T. Takahashi
6.8
4
R. Inoue
6.9
16
H. Okuda
6.7
10
S. Tanaka
7.4
8
S. Kagawa
6.9
15
J. Hernández
6.8
17
R. Sakata
↑ 90'
7
S. Uejo
6.7
↑ 69'
9
S. Sakuragawa
6.4
↑ 81'
Substitutes
35GA. Pisano
2DY. Nogami
55DS. Tokumoto
27MK. Nakayama↓ 60'7.8
17MT. Uchida↓ 70'7.4
14MT. Morishima↓ 59'7.0
33MT. Kikuchi
30MS. Sugiura
18FK. Nagai↓ 60'6.2
Coach: Mihailo Petrovic
Substitutes
31GK. Abe
2DT. Nakamura
6DK. Noborizato
77ML. Fernandes↓ 90'7.4
41MY. Komi↓ 69'6.5
28MK. Okazawa
14MY. Yokoyama
19FP. Sabbag↓ 81'7.4
45FK. Nagasoe
Coach: Pablo Machin
Top stats
59%Possession41%
1.7Expected goals (xG)1.42
14Total shots9
3Shots on target4
2Big chances2
2Corners1
Shots
7Shots off target3
4Blocked shots2
9Shots inside box6
5Shots outside box3
1Big chances scored0
1Big chances missed2
Attack
21Touches in box16
87Final third entries47
4Offsides2
10Free kicks13
3Fouled in final third1
Passing
598Passes425
517Accurate passes329
21/54 (39%)Long balls29/67 (43%)
4/23 (17%)Crosses6/15 (40%)
17Throw-ins21
Duels
45Duels55
21/47 (45%)Ground duels26/47 (55%)
15/33 (45%)Aerial duels18/33 (55%)
4/13 (31%)Dribbles1/5 (20%)
4Dispossessed5
Defending
9Tackles13
56Tackles won69
8Interceptions14
24Clearances30
51Recoveries46
Discipline
13Fouls10
1Yellow cards4
0Red cards0
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
0Big saves1
4Goal kicks9
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers
BTTSBoth teams to score 61% · 2.75 @ Bet365
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 57% · 3.70 @ William Hill
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 79% · 1.85 @ 1xBet
CornersOver 8.5 corners 61% · 1.43 @ 1xBet
1X2Cerezo Osaka to win 33% · 3.00 @ Bet365
1X2Draw 26% · 2.62 @ 1xBet
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 62% · 1.76 @ Pinnacle
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 51% · 2.20 @ Pinnacle
1X2Nagoya to win 40% · 2.70 @ William Hill
Who winsNagoya to win (DNB) 52% · 1.62 @ Betano
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 62% · 1.50 @ Pinnacle
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.30
Nagoya Grampus
3.50
Draw
2.80
Cerezo Osaka
Double Chanceconsensus
1.40
Nagoya Grampus or Draw
1.29
Nagoya Grampus or Cerezo Osaka
1.55
Draw or Cerezo Osaka
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.55
Yes
2.30
No
Home Win to Nilconsensus
4.80
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
5.00
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.02
Over 0.50
13.60
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.19
Over 1.50
4.45
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.66
Over 2.50
2.20
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.56
Over 3.50
1.46
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
4.91
Over 4.50
1.15
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.61
Nagoya Grampus
2.20
Cerezo Osaka
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.22
Over 7.50
3.60
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.43
Over 8.50
2.55
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.69
Over 9.50
2.10
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.08
Over 10.50
1.69
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
2.70
Over 11.50
1.39
Under 11.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
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