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Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
Machida Zelvia
Shimizu S-Pulse
Shimizu S-Pulse
Shimizu S-Pulse
Machida Zelvia
Shimizu S-Pulse
Shimizu S-Pulse
Shimizu S-Pulse
Takayuki Yoshida
Shimizu S-Pulse
Machida Zelvia
Shimizu S-Pulse
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1
Machida Zelvia
Commentary
90'
Full-time. Shimizu S-Pulse 0-5 Machida Zelvia.
90+4'
Machida Zelvia
Corner, Machida Zelvia.
90+2'
Machida Zelvia
Offside, Machida Zelvia.
90'
6 minutes of added time.
77'
Goal! Shimizu S-Pulse 0-4 Machida Zelvia. T. Nishimura (Machida Zelvia) scores, assisted by G. Shoji.
76'
Machida Zelvia
Corner, Machida Zelvia.
65'
Machida Zelvia
Corner, Machida Zelvia.
62'
Goal! Shimizu S-Pulse 0-3 Machida Zelvia. T. Nishimura (Machida Zelvia) scores, assisted by Y. Soma.
60'
Attempt blocked. T. Nishimura (Machida Zelvia), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.07.
60'
Machida Zelvia
Corner, Machida Zelvia.
50'
Goal! Shimizu S-Pulse 0-2 Machida Zelvia. K. Ogawa (Machida Zelvia) scores, assisted by T. Akimoto.
47'
Machida Zelvia
Corner, Machida Zelvia.
46'
The second half is under way.
45'
Half-time. Shimizu S-Pulse 0-1 Machida Zelvia.
45'
3 minutes of added time.
44'
Shimizu S-Pulse
Corner, Shimizu S-Pulse.
41'
Shimizu S-Pulse
Offside, Shimizu S-Pulse.
25'
Shimizu S-Pulse
Offside, Shimizu S-Pulse.
20'
Attempt missed. T. Ouwejan (Machida Zelvia), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.
19'
Machida Zelvia
Corner, Machida Zelvia.
8'
Shimizu S-Pulse
Corner, Shimizu S-Pulse.
8'
Shimizu S-Pulse
Corner, Shimizu S-Pulse.
5'
Shimizu S-Pulse
Corner, Shimizu S-Pulse.
1'
Kick-off: Shimizu S-Pulse vs Machida Zelvia.
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
37730 EUR · live
Away
1.01 · implied 99.0%
62.3%
-36.7 vs price
Home
160.0 · implied 0.6%
25.9%
+25.3 vs price
Draw
120.0 · implied 0.8%
13.7%
+12.9 vs price
Half time
156 EUR
Draw
2.08 · implied 48.1%
61.4%
+13.3 vs price
Home
5.0 · implied 20.0%
38.4%
+18.4 vs price
Away
2.94 · implied 34.0%
0.4%
-33.6 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
28765 EUR · live
Over
1.63 · implied 61.3%
56.0%
-5.3 vs price
Under
2.54 · implied 39.4%
44.0%
+4.6 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
66 EUR
Over
12.0 · implied 8.3%
96.4%
+88.0 vs price
Under
1.09 · implied 91.7%
3.6%
-88.1 vs price
13 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
17'
Y. Honda · Foul
31'
K. Matsuzaki · Foul
35'
⚽
N. Lavi0–1
Half-time · 0–1
50'
⚽
K. Ogawa · assist T. Akimoto0–2
57'
🔁
T. Fujii ◂ Capixaba
57'
🔁
K. Inoue ◂ K. Koizumi
62'
⚽
T. Nishimura · assist Y. Soma0–3
63'
K. Matsuzaki · Foul
69'
🔁
R. Germain ◂ O. Se-Hun
73'
🔁
H. Nakamura ◂ H. H. Mochizuki
73'
🔁
M. Duke ◂ Y. Soma
73'
🔁
R. Shirasaki ◂ N. Lavi
77'
⚽
T. Nishimura · assist G. Shoji0–4
79'
🔁
H. Shimoda ◂ H. Mae
79'
🔁
K. Kozuka ◂ M. Yumiba
79'
🔁
Y. Yoshida ◂ H. Sugai
82'
⚽
T. Nishimura0–5
86'
🔁
F. Tokumura ◂ T. Nishimura
Full-time · 0–5
Coaches
Takayuki YoshidaGo Kuroda 
Recent form
Shimizu S-PulseDHGamba Osaka2-2
WAMito Hollyhock2-1
WHV-Varen Nagasaki2-1
WHJEF United Chiba2-1
WHAvispa Fukuoka1-0
Machida ZelviaWHAvispa Fukuoka3-0
WAKyoto Sanga FC1-0
WHTochigi City FC2-1
LHKashiwa Reysol2-4
DHYokohama F. Marinos1-1
About this match
**Shimizu S-Pulse are on a roll and Machida Zelvia are coming to spoil the party.** One team's flying high at home; the other's hunting an upset after a solid road win. 🔥
S-Pulse are **4W-1D in their last five** — textbook form for a side that knows how to grind results at IAI Stadium. Zelvia aren't far behind at 3W-1D-1L, but they've only won once in their last two H2H clashes and that's a wound worth reopening.
Key storylines:
- **Dieguinho and R. Germain** lead S-Pulse's attack on a wing-heavy setup; Zelvia's **K. Ogawa** has to marshal the backline under pressure
- **D. J. Won** anchoring midfield vs **R. Shirasaki** in a classic tempo battle — who controls possession flow?
- S-Pulse's home record is **unbeaten in this stretch**; Zelvia chasing their first away win vs this opponent
Expected lineups:
- **Shimizu S-Pulse**: T. Umeda, H. Sugai, Y. Takahashi, J. R. Sumiyoshi, Y. Honda, D. J. Won, Dieguinho, R. Germain, K. Kitagawa
- **Machida Zelvia**: K. Tani, T. Akimoto, G. Shoji, D. Okamura, H. Nakamura, R. Shirasaki, N. Lavi, Y. Soma, K. Ogawa
Prediction:
**Shimizu S-Pulse 2–1 Machida Zelvia**. S-Pulse's home form is too strong to ignore; Zelvia will fight but won't have enough.
Match facts
Stadium
IAI Stadium Nihondaira
City
Shizuoka
Kickoff
21 Oct, 10:00 UTC
Competition
J1 League
Highlights & clips
Shimizu S-Pulse
4-2-3-1 · 3-4-2-1
Machida Zelvia
16
T. Umeda
6.0
28
Y. Yoshida
6.3
↑ 79'
4
S. Hasukawa
6.5
15
Y. Honda
4.9
25
M. Brunetti
6.0
50
T. Fujii
6.3
↑ 57'
81
K. Kozuka
6.4
↑ 79'
21
K. Matsuzaki
5.4
47
Y. Shimamoto
6.5
8
K. Inoue
6.2
↑ 57'
13
R. Germain
6.6
↑ 69'
1
K. Tani
6.8
3
G. Shoji
8.1
50
D. Okamura
6.6
2
T. Ouwejan
7.6
88
H. Nakamura
7.0
↑ 73'
18
H. Shimoda
7.4
↑ 79'
23
R. Shirasaki
7.0
↑ 73'
33
T. Akimoto
8.3
34
F. Tokumura
6.7
↑ 86'
15
M. Duke
7.0
↑ 73'
9
K. Ogawa
6.9
Substitutes
1GY. Oki
24DH. Sugai↓ 79'6.0
14DS. Park
17MM. Yumiba↓ 79'6.5
37MK. Koizumi↓ 57'6.4
7MCapixaba↓ 57'6.4
18MT. Hirato
9FO. Se-Hun↓ 69'6.7
19FK. Kosuke
Coach: Takayuki Yoshida
Substitutes
13GT. Morita
6DH. H. Mochizuki↓ 73'6.5
5DI. Drešević
31MN. Lavi↓ 73'8.5
16MH. Mae↓ 79'7.5
8MK. Sento
20FT. Nishimura↓ 86'10.0
7FY. Soma↓ 73'7.2
Coach: Go Kuroda
Top stats
33%Possession67%
0.28Expected goals (xG)3.53
6Total shots25
2Shots on target12
0Big chances12
4Corners5
Shots
3Shots off target9
1Blocked shots4
1Shots inside box19
5Shots outside box6
0Hit woodwork2
0Big chances scored4
0Big chances missed8
Attack
4Touches in box33
60Final third entries60
2Offsides1
12Free kicks18
1Fouled in final third2
Passing
274Passes553
195Accurate passes489
21/64 (33%)Long balls28/59 (47%)
3/11 (27%)Crosses8/29 (28%)
17Throw-ins16
Duels
50Duels50
27/66 (41%)Ground duels39/66 (59%)
31/50 (62%)Aerial duels19/50 (38%)
5/12 (42%)Dribbles6/13 (46%)
9Dispossessed5
Defending
12Tackles16
75Tackles won56
7Interceptions8
20Clearances13
39Recoveries43
Discipline
18Fouls12
3Yellow cards0
1Red cards0
Goalkeeping
7Saves2
0Big saves1
10Goal kicks5
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers
Who winsMachida to win (DNB) 69% · 1.47 @ Betano
1X2Machida to win 44% · 2.50 @ Bet365
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 55% · 1.14 @ William Hill
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 71% · 1.35 @ 1xBet
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 59% · 1.72 @ Pinnacle
1X2Draw 29% · 2.37 @ Bet365
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 72% · 1.29 @ Bet365
BTTSBoth teams to score 51% · 3.75 @ Bet365
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 71% · 2.30 @ William Hill
CornersOver 8.5 corners 53% · 1.75 @ 1xBet
1X2Shimizu to win 27% · 3.65 @ 1xBet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
3.41
Shimizu S-Pulse
3.27
Draw
2.10
Machida Zelvia
Double Chanceconsensus
1.69
Shimizu S-Pulse or Draw
1.30
Shimizu S-Pulse or Machida Zelvia
1.29
Draw or Machida Zelvia
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
2.15
Yes
1.61
No
Home Win to Nilconsensus
5.50
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
3.50
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.06
Over 0.50
8.85
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.36
Over 1.50
3.10
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
2.15
Over 2.50
1.70
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
4.00
Over 3.50
1.22
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
8.00
Over 4.50
1.06
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
2.70
Shimizu S-Pulse
1.42
Machida Zelvia
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.43
Over 7.50
2.60
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.69
Over 8.50
2.08
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
2.12
Over 9.50
1.65
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.85
Over 10.50
1.35
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
3.90
Over 11.50
1.18
Under 11.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.1%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.1%.
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