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Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
V-Varen Nagasaki
V-Varen Nagasaki
Tokyo Verdy
Tokyo Verdy
V-Varen Nagasaki
V-Varen Nagasaki
V-Varen Nagasaki
Takuya Takagi
V-Varen Nagasaki
Tokyo Verdy
V-Varen Nagasaki
3-4-2-1 · 4-4-2
Tokyo Verdy
Commentary
90'
Full-time. V-Varen Nagasaki 1-2 Tokyo Verdy.
90+3'
Attempt saved. H. Nabeshima (V-Varen Nagasaki), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.05.
90'
5 minutes of added time.
81'
Goal! V-Varen Nagasaki 1-2 Tokyo Verdy. K. Ichimi (Tokyo Verdy) scores, assisted by S. Mizoguchi.
76'
Goal! V-Varen Nagasaki 1-1 Tokyo Verdy. T. Santana (V-Varen Nagasaki) scores, assisted by I. Yuto.
64'
Tokyo Verdy
Corner, Tokyo Verdy.
63'
Tokyo Verdy
Corner, Tokyo Verdy.
62'
Attempt missed. E. Deocleciano (V-Varen Nagasaki), header from a corner. xG 0.07.
61'
V-Varen Nagasaki
Corner, V-Varen Nagasaki.
55'
V-Varen Nagasaki
Corner, V-Varen Nagasaki.
46'
The second half is under way.
45'
Half-time. V-Varen Nagasaki 0-1 Tokyo Verdy.
45+12'
Goal! V-Varen Nagasaki 0-1 Tokyo Verdy. I. Someno (Tokyo Verdy) scores, assisted by K. Fujimoto.
45'
6 minutes of added time.
43'
Attempt missed. J. Junior (V-Varen Nagasaki), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.16.
40'
Tokyo Verdy
Corner, Tokyo Verdy.
27'
Tokyo Verdy
Corner, Tokyo Verdy.
23'
V-Varen Nagasaki
Corner, V-Varen Nagasaki.
14'
Attempt saved. M. Jesus (V-Varen Nagasaki), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.04.
12'
V-Varen Nagasaki
Corner, V-Varen Nagasaki.
5'
V-Varen Nagasaki
Corner, V-Varen Nagasaki.
2'
Attempt missed. Y. Hotaru (V-Varen Nagasaki), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.02.
1'
Kick-off: V-Varen Nagasaki vs Tokyo Verdy.
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
39954 EUR · live
Away
1.01 · implied 99.0%
54.5%
-44.5 vs price
Home
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
38.3%
+38.2 vs price
Draw
50.0 · implied 2.0%
8.0%
+6.0 vs price
Half time
1 EUR
Draw
2.18 · implied 45.9%
64.4%
+18.6 vs price
Away
3.8 · implied 26.3%
23.3%
-3.0 vs price
Home
3.3 · implied 30.3%
12.2%
-18.1 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
22459 EUR · live
Under
1.6 · implied 62.5%
70.2%
+7.7 vs price
Over
2.6 · implied 38.5%
30.1%
-8.4 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
244 EUR
Under
1.1 · implied 90.9%
100.0%
+9.1 vs price
Over
11.0 · implied 9.1%
4.7%
-4.4 vs price
12 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG (estimated)
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
15'
Y. Shunya · Foul
Half-time · 0–1
45'+1
VAR
No penalty · K. Saito
45'+10
🔁
K. Morita ◂ K. Saito
45'+12
⚽
I. Someno · assist K. Fujimoto0–1
46'
🔁
A. Masuyama ◂ S. Ryosuke
46'
🔁
K. Yasuda ◂ J. Junior
66'
🔁
I. Yuto ◂ Y. Shunya
66'
🔁
T. Santana ◂ E. Deocleciano
72'
🔁
I. Kumatoriya ◂ I. Someno
72'
🔁
Y. Matsuhashi ◂ K. Fujimoto
76'
⚽
T. Santana · assist I. Yuto1–1
81'
⚽
K. Ichimi · assist S. Mizoguchi1–2
83'
🔁
S. Teranuma ◂ K. Ichimi
83'
🔁
M. Sako ◂ Y. M. Jo
84'
🔁
H. Nabeshima ◂ Y. Hotaru
Full-time · 1–2
90'+3
H. Nabeshima · Foul
90'+5
🔁
G. Yamada ◂ Y. Arai
Coaches
Takuya TakagiNaoki Soma 
Recent form
V-Varen NagasakiLAUrawa Red Diamonds0-1
WHSanfrecce Hiroshima4-0
LAKashima Antlers0-2
DAJEF United Chiba1-1
LAShimizu S-Pulse1-2
Tokyo VerdyWHAvispa Fukuoka3-1
DAYokohama F. Marinos2-2
LHFC Tokyo0-4
LHSanfrecce Hiroshima0-2
DAGainare Tottori0-0
About this match
**Nagasaki's home fortress meets a Tokyo side riding momentum** — but one of these teams is about to hit the ground hard. 🏟️
V-Varen have been wildly inconsistent, sandwiching a stunning 4-0 demolition of Hiroshima between back-to-back defeats. Tokyo Verdy, meanwhile, bounced back from a hiding vs FC Tokyo with wins and draws, but their road form and defensive reliability remain question marks.
Key storylines:
- **M. Jesus and S. Takashi** anchor Nagasaki's attack and will need to exploit home turf after recent misfires on the road
- Tokyo Verdy's **K. Fujimoto** leads the line for visitors who've shown they can score but leak goals just as easily
- **Peace Stadium advantage** could swing a coin-flip contest — Nagasaki won 4-0 at home last time out, while Tokyo's road record is shaky
Expected lineups:
- **V-Varen Nagasaki**: G. Masaaki, Y. Shunya, A. Ikki, K. Doi, R. Yamada, Y. Hotaru, M. Jesus, S. Takashi, M. Hasegawa
- **Tokyo Verdy**: M. Vidotto, S. Mizoguchi, K. Suzuki, N. Hayashi, R. Hirakawa, Y. Arai, K. Fujimoto, I. Someno
Prediction:
**Nagasaki 2-1 Tokyo Verdy**. Home form gives the slight edge; Verdy's leaky defence gets punished. 🎯
Match facts
Stadium
Peace Stadium
City
Nagasaki
Kickoff
01 Nov, 05:00 UTC
Competition
J1 League
Highlights & clips
V-Varen Nagasaki
3-4-2-1 · 4-4-2
Tokyo Verdy
1
G. Masaaki
6.0
7
K. Yasuda
6.4
↑ 46'
31
K. Doi
6.4
6
Y. Egawa
6.6
22
O. Hijiri
7.1
44
H. Nabeshima
6.5
↑ 84'
41
M. Hasegawa
7.1
8
I. Yuto
7.0
↑ 66'
10
M. Jesus
7.2
9
T. Santana
7.3
↑ 66'
88
A. Masuyama
6.5
↑ 46'
1
M. Vidotto
6.4
22
Y. Uchida
6.3
4
N. Hayashi
6.8
29
M. Sako
6.7
↑ 83'
18
S. Mizoguchi
8.7
7
Y. Matsuhashi
6.5
↑ 72'
10
K. Morita
6.5
↑ 45'
16
R. Hirakawa
7.1
13
G. Yamada
↑ 90'
45
S. Teranuma
6.6
↑ 83'
25
I. Kumatoriya
6.4
↑ 72'
Substitutes
13GH. Go
50DS. Ryosuke↓ 46'6.8
16ME. Deocleciano↓ 66'7.3
5MY. Hotaru↓ 84'7.3
23MY. Shunya↓ 66'6.9
34MT. Matsumoto
21MD. Pituca
99FJ. Junior↓ 46'6.4
18FY. Ryogo
Coach: Takuya Takagi
Top stats
49%Possession51%
2.46Expected goals (xG)1.18
19Total shots15
4Shots on target3
1Big chances1
5Corners4
Shots
10Shots off target6
5Blocked shots6
16Shots inside box8
3Shots outside box7
0Big chances scored1
1Big chances missed0
Attack
34Touches in box39
40Final third entries77
0Offsides2
15Free kicks11
2Fouled in final third1
Passing
427Passes453
325Accurate passes361
27/67 (40%)Long balls18/51 (35%)
8/23 (35%)Crosses4/17 (24%)
23Throw-ins27
Duels
54Duels46
36/60 (60%)Ground duels24/60 (40%)
18/40 (45%)Aerial duels22/40 (55%)
9/12 (75%)Dribbles6/16 (38%)
4Dispossessed6
Defending
16Tackles7
63Tackles won57
11Interceptions13
26Clearances32
46Recoveries46
Discipline
11Fouls15
2Yellow cards0
0Red cards0
Goalkeeping
1Saves3
4Goal kicks10
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 24 bookmakers
Who winsNagasaki to win (DNB) 67% · 1.75 @ Betano
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 55% · 1.14 @ William Hill
1X2Draw 29% · 2.33 @ 1xBet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 74% · 1.27 @ Pinnacle
1X2Tokyo Verdy to win 32% · 3.24 @ 1xBet
CornersOver 8.5 corners 58% · 1.65 @ Pinnacle
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 66% · 1.48 @ Pinnacle
BTTSBoth teams to score 51% · 3.75 @ Bet365
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 54% · 1.71 @ Pinnacle
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 70% · 2.31 @ 1xBet
1X2Nagasaki to win 38% · 2.80 @ William Hill
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.40
V-Varen Nagasaki
3.20
Draw
2.90
Tokyo Verdy
Double Chanceconsensus
1.40
V-Varen Nagasaki or Draw
1.33
V-Varen Nagasaki or Tokyo Verdy
1.50
Draw or Tokyo Verdy
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.83
Yes
1.88
No
Home Win to Nilconsensus
3.80
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
5.00
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.04
Over 0.50
8.25
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.36
Over 1.50
2.98
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
2.10
Over 2.50
1.70
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
3.92
Over 3.50
1.23
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
8.00
Over 4.50
1.05
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.72
V-Varen Nagasaki
2.02
Tokyo Verdy
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.35
Over 7.50
2.85
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.63
Over 8.50
2.17
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
2.04
Over 9.50
1.71
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.52
Over 10.50
1.46
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
3.40
Over 11.50
1.24
Under 11.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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