Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**San Marino rolls out the welcome mat, but Finland are desperate to avoid another dead-rubber loss.** 🔴 Nations League Group A vibes, and both teams are limping in with rough recent form.
San Marino have won zero of their last five, while Finland's sole win came against Andorra — hardly a bellwether. Finland lost 4-0 to Germany and 1-2 to Hungary, so expectations are modest despite being favorites here. San Marino scraped a draw with Andorra but otherwise got punished at home.
Key storylines:
- **Finland's attacking edge**: Pohjanpalo and Antman need to convert early chances; San Marino's defense has leaked goals at home
- **Goalkeeper question mark**: Hrádecký inherits the Finland armband with **Joronen and Bergström out**; any wobble and San Marino sniffs an upset
- **San Marino's draw curse**: One draw in five games suggests they're either getting steamrolled or scrappy—little in between
Expected lineups:
- **San Marino**: E. Colombo, A. Riccardi, M. Cevoli, F. Fabbri, M. V. Casadei, L. Capicchioni, A. Golinucci, N. Nanni, S. Zannoni, N. Giacopetti
- **Finland**: L. Hrádecký, J. Lähteenmäki, V. Koski, M. Tenho, N. Alho, K. Kairinen, A. Markhiev, L. Walta, J. Pohjanpalo, O. Antman
Prediction:
**Finland 2–0 San Marino** — Finland have enough class to break through at home, even with injuries. San Marino stay scoreless in the Nations League opener.
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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