Czechia 1-2 Croatia: Stats, xG & Lineups – Sep 26, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Czechia 1-2 Croatia.

90+5'

A. Král

Yellow card for A. Král (Czechia) for foul.

90+4'

L. Vušković

Attempt blocked. L. Vušković (Croatia), header from a corner. xG 0.14.

90+4'

Croatia

Corner, Croatia.

90+3'

A. Budimir

Attempt saved. A. Budimir (Croatia), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

90'

5 minutes of added time.

90'

Czechia

Corner, Czechia.

88'

P. Sučić

Substitution, Croatia: N. Vlašić comes on for P. Sučić.

83'

J. Sláma

Substitution, Czechia: O. Zmrzlý comes on for J. Sláma.

83'

P. Šulc

Substitution, Czechia: V. Sejk comes on for P. Šulc.

83'

Czechia

Offside, Czechia.

83'

Czechia

Offside, Czechia.

81'

Czechia

Offside, Czechia.

79'

M. Radosta

VAR check complete: the goal for Czechia stands.

77'

M. Pašalić

Goal! Czechia 1-2 Croatia. M. Pašalić (Croatia) scores, assisted by I. Perišić.

76'

L. Modrić

Substitution, Croatia: J. Mišić comes on for L. Modrić.

74'

A. Karabec

Substitution, Czechia: M. Šubert comes on for A. Karabec.

71'

M. Radosta

Attempt missed. M. Radosta (Czechia), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.59.

68'

Czechia

Offside, Czechia.

67'

L. Červ

Substitution, Czechia: A. Král comes on for L. Červ.

67'

L. Ambros

Substitution, Czechia: M. Radosta comes on for L. Ambros.

66'

L. Vušković

Yellow card for L. Vušković (Croatia) for foul.

66'

A. Budimir

Attempt missed. A. Budimir (Croatia), header. xG 0.05.

63'

I. Matanović

Substitution, Croatia: A. Budimir comes on for I. Matanović.

63'

L. Sučić

Substitution, Croatia: M. Pašalić comes on for L. Sučić.

62'

M. Kovačić

Attempt blocked. M. Kovačić (Croatia), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

61'

A. Hložek

Attempt missed. A. Hložek (Czechia), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

60'

Czechia

Offside, Czechia.

58'

M. Sadílek

Attempt blocked. M. Sadílek (Czechia), left-footed shot. xG 0.18.

57'

I. Matanović

Attempt saved. I. Matanović (Croatia), left-footed shot. xG 0.09.

54'

A. Karabec

Goal! Czechia 1-1 Croatia. A. Karabec (Czechia) scores, assisted by A. Hložek.

52'

R. Hranáč

Attempt saved. R. Hranáč (Czechia), header from a throw-in. xG 0.06.

47'

L. Modrić

Goal! Czechia 0-1 Croatia. L. Modrić (Croatia) scores, assisted by I. Matanović.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Czechia 0-0 Croatia.

45+1'

L. Vušković

Attempt missed. L. Vušković (Croatia), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

45'

1 minute of added time.

45'

P. Sučić

Attempt blocked. P. Sučić (Croatia), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.01.

45'

I. Matanović

Attempt missed. I. Matanović (Croatia), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

44'

Croatia

Corner, Croatia.

42'

P. Sučić

Attempt saved. P. Sučić (Croatia), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.32.

40'

I. Matanović

Attempt blocked. I. Matanović (Croatia), header. xG 0.12.

38'

Czechia

Offside, Czechia.

36'

L. Červ

Yellow card for L. Červ (Czechia) for foul.

31'

I. Matanović

Attempt missed. I. Matanović (Croatia), header. xG 0.12.

23'

L. Sučić

Attempt missed. L. Sučić (Croatia), left-footed shot. xG 0.11.

23'

Czechia

Offside, Czechia.

13'

Croatia

Corner, Croatia.

13'

Croatia

Corner, Croatia.

12'

I. Perišić

Attempt missed. I. Perišić (Croatia), header from a corner. xG 0.01.

12'

Croatia

Corner, Croatia.

11'

F. Ivanović

Attempt blocked. F. Ivanović (Croatia), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

1'

Kick-off: Czechia vs Croatia.

Where the money is

2015498 EUR matched · captured 1 month, 1 week ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 1445353 EUR · live

Away 1.03 · implied 97.1%

82.3%

-14.8 vs price

Draw 50.0 · implied 2.0%

12.5%

+10.5 vs price

Home 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

5.3%

+5.2 vs price

Half time 5481 EUR · live

Draw 1.29 · implied 77.5%

65.1%

-12.5 vs price

Away 6.0 · implied 16.7%

23.9%

+7.3 vs price

Home 13.0 · implied 7.7%

11.0%

+3.3 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 170013 EUR · live

Under 1.85 · implied 54.1%

61.1%

+7.0 vs price

Over 2.18 · implied 45.9%

39.0%

-6.9 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 9636 EUR · live

Under 1.01 · implied 99.0%

89.9%

-9.1 vs price

Over 310.0 · implied 0.3%

10.1%

+9.8 vs price

18 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 2 clips

Player of the match

Match events

36' L. Červ · Foul

Half-time · 0–0

47' ⚽ L. Modrić · assist I. Matanović0–1

54' ⚽ A. Karabec · assist A. Hložek1–1

63' 🔁 M. Pašalić ◂ L. Sučić

63' 🔁 M. Pašalić ◂ F. Ivanović

63' 🔁 A. Budimir ◂ I. Matanović

66' L. Vušković · Foul

67' 🔁 M. Radosta ◂ L. Ambros

67' 🔁 A. Král ◂ L. Červ

74' 🔁 M. Šubert ◂ A. Karabec

76' 🔁 J. Mišić ◂ L. Modrić

77' ⚽ M. Pašalić · assist I. Perišić1–2

79' VAR Goal not given after review · M. Radosta

83' 🔁 V. Sejk ◂ P. Šulc

83' 🔁 O. Zmrzlý ◂ J. Sláma

88' 🔁 N. Vlašić ◂ P. Sučić

Full-time · 1–2

90'⁺⁵ A. Král · Foul

Coaches

Santi Denia

Slaven Bilić

Recent form

Czechia

LHMexico0-3

DHSouth Africa1-1

LASouth Korea1-2

WHGuatemala3-1

WHKosovo2-1

Croatia

LAPortugal1-2

WHGhana2-1

WAPanama1-0

LAEngland2-4

WHSlovenia2-1

About this match

**Czechia's home fortress meets a battle-hardened Croatia in a Nations League showdown.** Both teams are hunting momentum, but the hosts have the crowd advantage at Fortuna Arena. 🏟️

Czechia's recent form is choppy—two wins sandwiched around defeats to South Korea and Mexico—while Croatia's steadier 3W-2L record shows resilience. The head-to-head is a dead heat: three draws and one Croatian win in their last four.

Key storylines:

- **Luka Modrić** leads Croatia's midfield against a Czechia side anchored by **Tomáš Souček**—a battle of old guard vs. grinding work rate
- **Patrik Schick** in attack will test **Joško Gvardiol** and **Marin Pongračić** on the break; Croatia's back line has shown vulnerability
- Home advantage matters: Czechia plays 3-4-2-1 with width from **Vladimír Coufal**, while Croatia's 4-2-3-1 is more compact

Expected lineups:

- **Czechia**: Kovář, Krejčí, Hranáč, Coufal, Sadílek, Souček, Schick, Šulc
- **Croatia**: Livaković, Gvardiol, Pongračić, Stanišić, Modrić, Sučić, Budimir

Prediction:

**1-1 draw.** Both sides have the shape and resolve to keep it tight, but neither looks clinical enough to break the deadlock. ⚽

Where to watch

A Spor

Match facts

Stadium

Fortuna Arena

City

Prague

Referee

Simone Sozza

3.15 yellows/match · 54 matches

Kickoff

26 Sep, 18:45 UTC

Competition

UEFA Nations League

Highlights & clips

Czechia 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1 Croatia

16 L. Horníček 6.9 5 V. Coufal 6.8 4 R. Hranáč 7.6 6 S. Chaloupek 7.4 3 O. Zmrzlý 6.8 ↑ 83' 8 M. Sadílek 6.3 18 M. Radosta 6.2 ↑ 67' 21 A. Král 6.5 ↑ 67' 11 V. Sejk 6.4 ↑ 83' 7 M. Šubert 6.5 ↑ 74' 10 A. Hložek 7.0 1 D. Livaković 6.8 2 J. Stanišić 6.4 5 L. Vušković 6.0 4 J. Gvardiol 7.0 14 I. Perišić 7.7 22 J. Mišić 6.7 ↑ 76' 8 M. Kovačić 7.3 15 M. Pašalić 7.3 ↑ 63' 13 N. Vlašić 6.5 ↑ 88' 19 M. Pašalić 7.3 ↑ 63' 11 A. Budimir 6.7 ↑ 63'

Top stats

44%Possession56%

0.92Expected goals (xG)1.84

5Total shots16

2Shots on target5

1Big chances3

1Corners6

Shots

2Shots off target6

1Blocked shots5

4Shots inside box12

1Shots outside box4

1Big chances scored1

1Big chances missed2

0.98Goals prevented0.45

Attack

8Touches in box27

32Final third entries73

6Offsides0

9Free kicks6

Passing

450Passes564

380Accurate passes489

22/52 (42%)Long balls20/45 (44%)

3/6 (50%)Crosses8/28 (29%)

25Throw-ins24

Duels

54Duels46

23/45 (51%)Ground duels22/45 (49%)

11/18 (61%)Aerial duels7/18 (39%)

9/11 (82%)Dribbles5/9 (56%)

9Dispossessed1

Defending

5Tackles11

80Tackles won45

6Interceptions11

42Clearances10

42Recoveries47

Discipline

6Fouls9

2Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

1Big saves0

7Goal kicks4

2Punches0

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 38 bookmakers

Czechia 29%

27%

Croatia 44%

Who winsCroatia to win (DNB) 61% · 1.55 @ granmadrid

1X2Croatia to win 44% · 2.50 @ efbet.net

BTTSBoth teams to score 56% · 3.30 @ 1xBet

1X2Draw 27% · 2.75 @ betcity

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 52% · 4.60 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 76% · 2.16 @ 1xBet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 58% · 1.65 @ betfair

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 66% · 1.49 @ Pinnacle

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 54% · 1.81 @ Pinnacle

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 69% · 1.38 @ betcity

1X2Czechia to win 29% · 4.00 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

3.05

Czechia ▼

3.43

Draw ▲

2.03

Croatia

Double Chanceconsensus

1.69

Czechia or Draw ▼

1.28

Czechia or Croatia

1.33

Draw or Croatia

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.64

Yes ▼

2.12

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

6.50

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

3.40

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

11.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.24

Over 1.50

3.76

Under 1.50 ▼

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.77

Over 2.50

2.00

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.90

Over 3.50

1.37

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

6.50

Over 4.50

1.08

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

2.36

Czechia

1.53

Croatia

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.32

Over 7.50

2.85

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.61

Over 8.50

2.19

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.02

Over 9.50

1.79

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.55

Over 10.50

1.44

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

3.51

Over 11.50

1.22

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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