Lithuania 1-1 Azerbaijan: Stats, xG & Lineups

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Lithuania 1-1 Azerbaijan.

90+3'

A. Khaybulaev

Substitution, Azerbaijan: C. Huseinov comes on for A. Khaybulaev.

90'

3 minutes of added time.

90'

M. Emreli

Attempt blocked. M. Emreli (Azerbaijan), left-footed shot. xG 0.10.

87'

T. Mutallimov

Substitution, Azerbaijan: V. İsgändärli comes on for T. Mutallimov.

84'

M. Burba

Attempt saved. M. Burba (Lithuania), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

80'

A. Isayev

Attempt blocked. A. Isayev (Azerbaijan), right-footed shot. xG 0.10.

78'

M. Qurbanlı

Attempt saved. M. Qurbanlı (Azerbaijan), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

77'

A. Dolznikov

Substitution, Lithuania: E. Jankauskas comes on for A. Dolznikov.

77'

A. Kučys

Substitution, Lithuania: I. Venckus comes on for A. Kučys.

76'

G. Gineitis

Attempt blocked. G. Gineitis (Lithuania), left-footed shot. xG 0.05.

75'

R. Abdullazada

Attempt missed. R. Abdullazada (Azerbaijan), header. xG 0.10.

73'

G. Gineitis

Attempt missed. G. Gineitis (Lithuania), left-footed shot. xG 0.01.

68'

A. Kučys

Attempt missed. A. Kučys (Lithuania), header. xG 0.02.

66'

L. Michelbrink

Substitution, Lithuania: M. Vorobjovas comes on for L. Michelbrink.

66'

A. Lickunas

Substitution, Lithuania: M. Burba comes on for A. Lickunas.

60'

R. Dadaşov

Substitution, Azerbaijan: M. Qurbanlı comes on for R. Dadaşov.

60'

R. Abbasov

Substitution, Azerbaijan: T. Bayramov comes on for R. Abbasov.

57'

V. Slivka

Substitution, Lithuania: D. Šluta comes on for V. Slivka.

56'

A. Isayev

Yellow card for A. Isayev (Azerbaijan) for foul.

52'

G. Gineitis

Yellow card for G. Gineitis (Lithuania) for foul.

51'

Azerbaijan

Corner, Azerbaijan.

51'

L. Michelbrink

Attempt blocked. L. Michelbrink (Lithuania), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

51'

R. Dadaşov

Attempt saved. R. Dadaşov (Azerbaijan), left-footed shot. xG 0.23.

50'

Azerbaijan

Corner, Azerbaijan.

46'

E. Safarov

Substitution, Azerbaijan: R. Abdullazada comes on for E. Safarov.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Lithuania 1-1 Azerbaijan.

45'

2 minutes of added time.

44'

A. Khaybulaev

Attempt missed. A. Khaybulaev (Azerbaijan), right-footed shot. xG 0.09.

41'

Lithuania

Offside, Lithuania.

40'

E. Utkus

Attempt blocked. E. Utkus (Lithuania), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.04.

39'

T. Mutallimov

Yellow card for T. Mutallimov (Azerbaijan) for foul.

28'

G. Gineitis

Attempt saved. G. Gineitis (Lithuania), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.03.

27'

R. Mammadov

Yellow card for R. Mammadov (Azerbaijan) for foul.

26'

J. Lasickas

Attempt missed. J. Lasickas (Lithuania), right-footed shot. xG 0.10.

21'

R. Dadaşov

Attempt saved. R. Dadaşov (Azerbaijan), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

17'

T. Mutallimov

Attempt missed. T. Mutallimov (Azerbaijan), right-footed shot. xG 0.09.

14'

M. Emreli

Goal! Lithuania 1-1 Azerbaijan. M. Emreli (Azerbaijan) scores, assisted by T. Mutallimov.

13'

Lithuania

Offside, Lithuania.

12'

Lithuania

Offside, Lithuania.

9'

A. Kučys

Goal! Lithuania 1-0 Azerbaijan. A. Kučys (Lithuania) converts the penalty.

1'

Kick-off: Lithuania vs Azerbaijan.

Where the money is

1190824 EUR matched · captured 1 month, 2 weeks ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 571528 EUR · live

Draw 1.03 · implied 97.1%

41.8%

-55.2 vs price

Home 60.0 · implied 1.7%

40.2%

+38.6 vs price

Away 50.0 · implied 2.0%

17.9%

+15.9 vs price

Half time 6097 EUR · live

Draw 1.63 · implied 61.3%

53.1%

-8.3 vs price

Home 3.65 · implied 27.4%

30.1%

+2.7 vs price

Away 6.0 · implied 16.7%

16.8%

+0.1 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 273932 EUR · live

Under 1.06 · implied 94.3%

74.9%

-19.5 vs price

Over 15.0 · implied 6.7%

25.1%

+18.5 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 15218 EUR · live

Under 1.63 · implied 61.3%

77.1%

+15.7 vs price

Over 2.6 · implied 38.5%

22.9%

-15.6 vs price

14 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

9' ⚽ A. Kučys (pen)1–0

14' ⚽ M. Emreli · assist T. Mutallimov1–1

27' R. Mammadov · Foul

39' T. Mutallimov · Foul

Half-time · 1–1

46' 🔁 R. Abdullazada ◂ E. Safarov

52' G. Gineitis · Foul

56' A. Isayev · Foul

57' 🔁 D. Šluta ◂ V. Slivka

60' 🔁 T. Bayramov ◂ R. Abbasov

60' 🔁 M. Qurbanlı ◂ R. Dadaşov

66' 🔁 M. Burba ◂ A. Lickunas

66' 🔁 M. Vorobjovas ◂ L. Michelbrink

77' 🔁 I. Venckus ◂ A. Kučys

77' 🔁 E. Jankauskas ◂ A. Dolznikov

87' 🔁 V. İsgändärli ◂ T. Mutallimov

Full-time · 1–1

90'⁺³ 🔁 C. Huseinov ◂ A. Khaybulaev

Coaches

Edgaras Jankauskas

Aykhan Abbasov

Recent form

Lithuania

WALiechtenstein2-0

LHGeorgia0-2

WAMoldova2-0

LANetherlands0-4

DHIsrael0-0

Azerbaijan

WHTajikistan1-0

WASan Marino2-1

LHMalta0-2

LHFrance1-3

LHIceland0-2

About this match

**Lithuania hosting Azerbaijan in a dead-rubber Nations League clash** — both sides chasing late momentum before the window closes. 🇱🇹

Lithuania's been streaky: two wins, two losses, one draw in their last five. Azerbaijan's identical W-L spread (2W, 3L) hides a shakier defensive record. The hosts have the home advantage and a recent clean sheet over Moldova to build on.

Key storylines:

- **Lithuania's defense** has looked solid at home lately, but **Azerbaijan's inconsistency** could offer chances on the counter if the Lithuanians overcommit
- **G. Gineitis** and **V. Slivka** will anchor Lithuania's midfield in a 5-4-1 that prioritizes shape over flair
- Both teams are experimenting with shape and personnel — expect a cautious, low-scoring affair typical of UEFA Nations League dead rubber matchups

Expected lineups:

- **Lithuania**: E. Gertmonas, A. Tutyškinas, V. Armalas, E. Girdvainis, J. Lasickas, A. Dolznikov, V. Slivka, G. Gineitis, M. Vorobjovas, P. Golubickas, G. Paulauskas

- **Azerbaijan**: A. Bayramov, E. Badalov, T. Bayramov, R. Dashdamirov, R. Mammadov, M. Khachayev, E. Mahmudov, A. Khaybulaev, R. Abbasov, R. Abdullazada, M. Emreli

Prediction:

**Lithuania 1–0 Azerbaijan** — slight edge to the hosts at home with better defensive cohesion. 🎯

Where to watch

DStv NowSuperSport Maximo 2SuperSport Premier League

Match facts

Stadium

Steponas Darius and Stasys Girenas

City

Kaunas

Referee

Menelaos Antoniou

4.00 yellows/match · 13 matches

Kickoff

27 Sep, 13:00 UTC

Competition

UEFA Nations League

Highlights & clips

Lithuania 3-4-3 · 5-4-1 Azerbaijan

23 D. Bartkus 5.9 18 V. Armalas 6.7 3 E. Utkus 7.5 2 A. Tutyškinas 6.4 6 M. Vorobjovas 6.4 ↑ 66' 22 M. Burba 6.5 ↑ 66' 15 G. Gineitis 7.2 13 J. Lasickas 7.6 8 D. Šluta 6.8 ↑ 57' 11 E. Jankauskas 6.4 ↑ 77' 19 I. Venckus 6.6 ↑ 77' 1 E. Balayev 6.8 17 V. İsgändärli ↑ 87' 4 R. Mammadov 6.0 15 B. Huseynov 6.5 2 R. Dashdamirov 6.0 7 T. Bayramov 6.7 ↑ 60' 10 M. Emreli 8.2 18 C. Huseinov ↑ 90' 21 R. Abdullazada 6.8 ↑ 46' 20 A. Isayev 7.1 22 M. Qurbanlı 6.4 ↑ 60'

Top stats

51%Possession49%

1.26Expected goals (xG)0.83

9Total shots9

3Shots on target4

2Big chances2

0Corners2

Shots

3Shots off target3

3Blocked shots2

4Shots inside box7

5Shots outside box2

1Big chances scored0

1Big chances missed2

-0.69Goals prevented0.02

Attack

13Touches in box17

48Final third entries42

3Offsides0

15Free kicks15

4Fouled in final third2

Passing

428Passes416

322Accurate passes309

34/67 (51%)Long balls12/59 (20%)

2/10 (20%)Crosses4/14 (29%)

31Throw-ins24

Duels

55Duels45

42/84 (50%)Ground duels42/84 (50%)

21/30 (70%)Aerial duels9/30 (30%)

9/15 (60%)Dribbles6/18 (33%)

17Dispossessed6

Defending

18Tackles23

89Tackles won52

7Interceptions5

20Clearances18

61Recoveries62

Discipline

15Fouls16

1Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

4Goal kicks7

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 33 bookmakers

Lithuania 41%

31%

Azerbaijan 28%

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 62% · 1.10 @ William Hill

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 80% · 1.18 @ granmadrid

BTTSBTTS: No 55% · 1.20 @ Bet365

1X2Draw 31% · 2.28 @ betcity

1X2Azerbaijan to win 28% · 3.85 @ 1xBet

1X2Lithuania to win 41% · 3.12 @ efbet.net

Who winsLithuania to win (DNB) 50% · 1.90 @ granmadrid

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 64% · 2.72 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.65

Lithuania

3.01

Draw ▼

2.74

Azerbaijan ▲

Double Chanceconsensus

1.42

Lithuania or Draw ▼

1.35

Lithuania or Azerbaijan

1.44

Draw or Azerbaijan

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

2.03

Yes

1.69

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

3.50

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

5.00

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.08

Over 0.50

6.79

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.48

Over 1.50

2.51

Under 1.50 ▼

Total Goals 2.50consensus

2.44

Over 2.50 ▼

1.51

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

4.70

Over 3.50

1.16

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

11.00

Over 4.50

1.02

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.86

Lithuania

1.86

Azerbaijan

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.44

Over 7.50

2.52

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.81

Over 8.50

1.96

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.28

Over 9.50

1.56

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.87

Over 10.50

1.31

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

3.62

Over 11.50

1.16

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

Under 3.5 goals

✓

80% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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