Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Italy rolls into Bursa as heavy favorites** — the Azzurri have won three of the last four head-to-heads and are on a strong run, while Türkiye's been stuttering despite a home crowd. 🇮🇹
Türkiye have won just two of their last five and are badly hamstrung: **Çalhanoğlu, Yıldız, Müldür, and Kökçü** are all sidelined. Italy aren't injury-free either (Cristante, Dimarco, Mané out), but their depth is sharper. The visitors' form has them clicking — three wins in five is nothing to sniff at.
Key storylines:
- **Türkiye's creative void**: Without Çalhanoğlu's midfield genius, the hosts will struggle to control tempo against a disciplined Italian side.
- **Italy's wing-backs**: Calafiori and Chiarodia will be crucial to Italy's 3-5-2; they need to stretch Türkiye's flanks and relieve pressure.
- **Home hunger vs. visitor class**: Türkiye will lean on crowd support and direct play, but Italy's technical superiority in midfield should prevail.
Expected lineups:
- **Türkiye**: U. Çakır, F. Kadıoğlu, A. Bardakcı, M. Demiral, K. Ayhan, Z. Çelik, İ. Yüksek, B. A. Yılmaz, A. Güler, O. Aydın, D. Gül
- **Italy**: G. Donnarumma, G. Mancini, A. Bastoni, F. Chiarodia, R. Calafiori, G. Di Lorenzo, M. Locatelli, S. Tonali, N. Barella, M. Retegui, F. P. Esposito
Prediction:
**Türkiye 1–2 Italy** — Italy have the edge in midfield and a habit of grinding out wins on the road. Türkiye will work hard but lack the craft to break through. 🎯
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.
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