Romania 2-4 Bosnia & Herzegovina: Stats & xG – Sep 28, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Romania 2-4 Bosnia & Herzegovina.

90+1'

N. Katić

Attempt saved. N. Katić (Bosnia & Herzegovina), header from a corner. xG 0.06.

90'

3 minutes of added time.

90'

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Corner, Bosnia & Herzegovina.

89'

Romania

Offside, Romania.

87'

L. Munteanu

Attempt blocked. L. Munteanu (Romania), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

81'

A. Burcă

Substitution, Romania: T. Strata comes on for A. Burcă.

81'

A. Gigović

Substitution, Bosnia & Herzegovina: B. Tahirović comes on for A. Gigović.

81'

S. Kolašinac

Substitution, Bosnia & Herzegovina: N. Mujakić comes on for S. Kolašinac.

80'

T. Muharemović

Yellow card for T. Muharemović (Bosnia & Herzegovina) for foul.

80'

E. Demirović

Attempt missed. E. Demirović (Bosnia & Herzegovina), right-footed shot. xG 0.18.

78'

D. Bîrligea

Attempt blocked. D. Bîrligea (Romania), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

78'

J. Lukić

Attempt missed. J. Lukić (Bosnia & Herzegovina), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

74'

H. Tabaković

Substitution, Bosnia & Herzegovina: J. Lukić comes on for H. Tabaković.

66'

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Corner, Bosnia & Herzegovina.

65'

D. Bîrligea

Attempt missed. D. Bîrligea (Romania), header from a corner. xG 0.10.

65'

V. Screciu

Substitution, Romania: D. Matei comes on for V. Screciu.

65'

N. Stanciu

Substitution, Romania: O. Moruțan comes on for N. Stanciu.

64'

Romania

Corner, Romania.

63'

E. Bajraktarević

Substitution, Bosnia & Herzegovina: A. Hasić comes on for E. Bajraktarević.

63'

E. Mahmić

Substitution, Bosnia & Herzegovina: E. Demirović comes on for E. Mahmić.

62'

A. Cicâldău

Goal! Romania 2-4 Bosnia & Herzegovina. A. Cicâldău (Romania) scores.

60'

Romania

Corner, Romania.

59'

Romania

Corner, Romania.

59'

A. Coubiș

Attempt blocked. A. Coubiș (Romania), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

58'

E. Bajraktarević

Attempt saved. E. Bajraktarević (Bosnia & Herzegovina), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

55'

E. Mahmić

Goal! Romania 1-4 Bosnia & Herzegovina. E. Mahmić (Bosnia & Herzegovina) scores, assisted by E. Bajraktarević.

54'

Romania

Offside, Romania.

52'

D. Bîrligea

Attempt blocked. D. Bîrligea (Romania), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

52'

V. Dragomir

Attempt missed. V. Dragomir (Romania), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

49'

V. Dragomir

Attempt missed. V. Dragomir (Romania), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

47'

K. Alajbegović

Attempt missed. K. Alajbegović (Bosnia & Herzegovina), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

46'

V. Mihăilă

Substitution, Romania: L. Munteanu comes on for V. Mihăilă.

46'

D. Olaru

Substitution, Romania: A. Cicâldău comes on for D. Olaru.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Romania 1-3 Bosnia & Herzegovina.

45'

1 minute of added time.

44'

V. Mihăilă

Attempt blocked. V. Mihăilă (Romania), right-footed shot. xG 0.10.

44'

E. Mahmić

Attempt missed. E. Mahmić (Bosnia & Herzegovina), header. xG 0.13.

42'

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Offside, Bosnia & Herzegovina.

40'

H. Tabaković

Goal! Romania 1-3 Bosnia & Herzegovina. H. Tabaković (Bosnia & Herzegovina) scores.

40'

K. Alajbegović

Attempt saved. K. Alajbegović (Bosnia & Herzegovina), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

35'

I. Bašić

Attempt blocked. I. Bašić (Bosnia & Herzegovina), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.02.

31'

E. Mahmić

Attempt blocked. E. Mahmić (Bosnia & Herzegovina), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

28'

D. Bîrligea

Goal! Romania 1-2 Bosnia & Herzegovina. D. Bîrligea (Romania) scores, assisted by L. N. Eissat.

23'

D. Bîrligea

Attempt saved. D. Bîrligea (Romania), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.09.

22'

Romania

Corner, Romania.

22'

N. Stanciu

Attempt saved. N. Stanciu (Romania), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

19'

T. Muharemović

Goal! Romania 0-2 Bosnia & Herzegovina. T. Muharemović (Bosnia & Herzegovina) scores, assisted by I. Bašić.

18'

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Corner, Bosnia & Herzegovina.

16'

E. Mahmić

Yellow card for E. Mahmić (Bosnia & Herzegovina) for foul.

12'

A. Gigović

Goal! Romania 0-1 Bosnia & Herzegovina. A. Gigović (Bosnia & Herzegovina) scores, assisted by E. Bajraktarević.

8'

H. Tabaković

Attempt missed. H. Tabaković (Bosnia & Herzegovina), right-footed shot. xG 0.46.

2'

T. Muharemović

Attempt blocked. T. Muharemović (Bosnia & Herzegovina), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.01.

2'

D. Bîrligea

Attempt blocked. D. Bîrligea (Romania), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

1'

Kick-off: Romania vs Bosnia & Herzegovina.

Where the money is

996728 EUR matched · captured 1 month, 1 week ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 533139 EUR · live

Away 1.01 · implied 99.0%

68.1%

-30.9 vs price

Home 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

20.8%

+20.7 vs price

Draw 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

11.1%

+11.0 vs price

Half time 4124 EUR · live

Away 1.02 · implied 98.0%

57.8%

-40.2 vs price

Draw 790.0 · implied 0.1%

36.7%

+36.6 vs price

Home 50.0 · implied 2.0%

5.4%

+3.4 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 50093 EUR · live

Over 1.14 · implied 87.7%

65.9%

-21.9 vs price

Under 8.6 · implied 11.6%

34.1%

+22.5 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 211 EUR

Under 1.11 · implied 90.1%

63.6%

-26.5 vs price

Over 10.5 · implied 9.5%

36.1%

+26.6 vs price

15 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 9 clips

Player of the match

Match events

12' ⚽ A. Gigović · assist E. Bajraktarević0–1

16' E. Mahmić · Foul

19' ⚽ T. Muharemović · assist I. Bašić0–2

28' ⚽ D. Bîrligea · assist L. N. Eissat1–2

40' ⚽ H. Tabaković1–3

Half-time · 1–3

46' 🔁 A. Cicâldău ◂ D. Olaru

46' 🔁 L. Munteanu ◂ V. Mihăilă

55' ⚽ E. Mahmić · assist E. Bajraktarević1–4

62' ⚽ A. Cicâldău2–4

63' 🔁 E. Demirović ◂ E. Mahmić

63' 🔁 A. Hasić ◂ E. Bajraktarević

65' 🔁 O. Moruțan ◂ N. Stanciu

65' 🔁 D. Matei ◂ V. Screciu

74' 🔁 J. Lukić ◂ H. Tabaković

80' T. Muharemović · Foul

81' 🔁 N. Mujakić ◂ S. Kolašinac

81' 🔁 B. Tahirović ◂ A. Gigović

81' 🔁 T. Strata ◂ A. Burcă

Full-time · 2–4

Coaches

Gheorghe Hagi

Sergej Barbarez

Recent form

Romania

LASweden1-2

WHWales2-1

DAGeorgia1-1

LASlovakia0-2

LATürkiye0-1

Bosnia & Herzegovina

DAPoland0-0

LAUSA0-2

WHQatar3-1

LASwitzerland1-4

DACanada1-1

About this match

**Romania's home fortress gets tested by Bosnia's bogey side** — the hosts have won just once in five, but Bosnia have dominated the head-to-head lately and rarely lose away. 🔥

Romania's form is shaky (1W-1D-3L), though that Wales win at home showed some fight. Bosnia come off the back of a wild 3-1 romp over Qatar but also got hammered 2-0 in the States, so consistency isn't their thing either. This is a proper toss-up.

Key storylines:

- **Romania's home advantage** in Bucharest could be the decider — they beat Wales at the National Arena, but need to tighten up defensively after recent lapses

- **Bosnia's head-to-head edge** is real (three wins in the last four meetings) and their away record here is genuinely awkward for the hosts to break

- **Midfield battle** between Romania's R. Marin and V. Dragomir against Bosnia's B. Tahirović and K. Alajbegović will decide tempo and control

Expected lineups:

- **Romania**: I. Radu, N. Bancu, A. Burcă, V. Ghiță, A. Rațiu, V. Dragomir, M. Marin, R. Marin, V. Mihăilă, D. Bîrligea, D. Man

- **Bosnia & Herzegovina**: N. Vasilj, S. Kolašinac, T. Muharemović, N. Katić, A. Dedić, K. Alajbegović, B. Tahirović, I. Bašić, A. Memić, E. Džeko, E. Demirović

Prediction:

**1-1 draw** leans most likely — both sides can score but neither's firing on all cylinders, and Bosnia's road resilience against Romania's home struggles feels like a stalemate waiting to happen.

Where to watch

DStv NowSuperSport Football Plus

Match facts

Stadium

Arena Națională

City

Bucharest

Referee

Luís Godinho

4.64 yellows/match · 67 matches

Kickoff

28 Sep, 18:45 UTC

Competition

UEFA Nations League

Highlights & clips

Romania 4-3-1-2 · 4-2-3-1 Bosnia & Herzegovina

1 I. Radu 4.8 4 A. Coubiș 6.0 2 T. Strata 6.8 ↑ 81' 3 M. Ilie 6.0 23 L. N. Eissat 6.0 19 D. Matei 6.5 ↑ 65' 21 O. Moruțan 6.9 ↑ 65' 22 V. Dragomir 7.1 8 A. Cicâldău 7.8 ↑ 46' 11 D. Bîrligea 7.1 9 L. Munteanu 6.1 ↑ 46' 22 M. Zlomislić 6.1 15 A. Memić 7.6 18 N. Katić 6.8 4 T. Muharemović 7.7 2 N. Mujakić 6.7 ↑ 81' 13 I. Bašić 7.6 6 B. Tahirović 6.5 ↑ 81' 10 E. Demirović 6.5 ↑ 63' 17 A. Hasić 6.4 ↑ 63' 19 K. Alajbegović 7.8 11 J. Lukić 6.7 ↑ 74'

Top stats

56%Possession44%

0.96Expected goals (xG)2.41

13Total shots15

4Shots on target7

2Big chances6

4Corners3

Shots

3Shots off target5

6Blocked shots3

5Shots inside box9

8Shots outside box6

1Big chances scored4

1Big chances missed2

-0.89Goals prevented-0.79

Attack

15Touches in box23

61Final third entries41

3Offsides1

9Free kicks15

2Fouled in final third0

Passing

591Passes462

519Accurate passes391

40/70 (57%)Long balls43/68 (63%)

3/16 (19%)Crosses5/8 (63%)

16Throw-ins15

Duels

38Duels62

20/56 (36%)Ground duels36/56 (64%)

10/24 (42%)Aerial duels14/24 (58%)

5/12 (42%)Dribbles8/11 (73%)

6Dispossessed3

Defending

6Tackles13

100Tackles won54

7Interceptions17

14Clearances22

44Recoveries45

Discipline

15Fouls9

0Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

7Goal kicks5

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers

Romania 43%

28%

Bosnia & Herzegovina 29%

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 54% · 1.15 @ 1xBet

1X2Draw 28% · 2.45 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 75% · 1.30 @ Pinnacle

CornersOver 8.5 corners 60% · 1.87 @ betfair

BTTSBoth teams to score 52% · 3.50 @ Bet365

1X2Romania to win 43% · 2.62 @ William Hill

1X2Bosnia & Herzegovina to win 29% · 3.64 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 64% · 1.33 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 52% · 1.62 @ Pinnacle

Who winsRomania to win (DNB) 55% · 1.75 @ Betano

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 71% · 2.25 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.20

Romania

3.33

Draw

3.27

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Double Chanceconsensus

1.30

Romania or Draw

1.31

Romania or Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.69

Draw or Bosnia & Herzegovina

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.80

Yes

1.94

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

3.60

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

5.50

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.04

Over 0.50

9.50

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.33

Over 1.50

3.25

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

2.05

Over 2.50

1.77

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

3.50

Over 3.50

1.29

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

7.17

Over 4.50

1.07

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.73

Romania

2.02

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.48

Over 7.50

2.57

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.83

Over 8.50

1.98

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.29

Over 9.50

1.59

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

3.24

Over 10.50

1.27

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

4.51

Over 11.50

1.14

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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