Spain 4-1 Croatia: Stats, xG & Lineups – Sep 29, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Spain 4-1 Croatia.

90+1'

M. Oyarzabal

Attempt missed. M. Oyarzabal (Spain), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

90'

2 minutes of added time.

90'

L. Modrić

Attempt saved. L. Modrić (Croatia), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

89'

N. Williams

Goal! Spain 4-1 Croatia. N. Williams (Spain) scores, assisted by M. Merino.

83'

Croatia

Corner, Croatia.

82'

Spain

Offside, Spain.

81'

P. Sučić

Substitution, Croatia: L. Modrić comes on for P. Sučić.

79'

Pedri

Attempt saved. Pedri (Spain), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

79'

Spain

Corner, Spain.

77'

F. Ivanović

Attempt missed. F. Ivanović (Croatia), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

76'

N. Williams

Attempt missed. N. Williams (Spain), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

73'

V. Muñoz

Attempt missed. V. Muñoz (Spain), header. xG 0.14.

72'

I. Perišić

Substitution, Croatia: F. Ivanović comes on for I. Perišić.

72'

M. Zubimendi

Substitution, Spain: Rodri comes on for M. Zubimendi.

68'

A. Baena

Substitution, Spain: N. Williams comes on for A. Baena.

68'

L. Yamal

Substitution, Spain: V. Muñoz comes on for L. Yamal.

67'

Spain

Corner, Spain.

63'

L. Yamal

Goal! Spain 3-1 Croatia. L. Yamal (Spain) scores, assisted by Pedri.

60'

D. D. Beljo

Substitution, Croatia: A. Budimir comes on for D. D. Beljo.

60'

M. Kovačić

Substitution, Croatia: M. Pašalić comes on for M. Kovačić.

58'

J. Mišić

Yellow card for J. Mišić (Croatia) for foul.

57'

F. López

Substitution, Spain: M. Merino comes on for F. López.

57'

F. Ruiz

Substitution, Spain: Pedri comes on for F. Ruiz.

57'

Spain

Corner, Spain.

54'

M. Pašalić

Yellow card for M. Pašalić (Croatia) for foul.

52'

D. D. Beljo

Attempt blocked. D. D. Beljo (Croatia), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.02.

50'

M. Pašalić

Attempt blocked. M. Pašalić (Croatia), left-footed shot. xG 0.01.

50'

Croatia

Corner, Croatia.

49'

A. Baena

Yellow card for A. Baena (Spain) for persistent fouling.

47'

Spain

Corner, Spain.

46'

M. Pongračić

Substitution, Croatia: L. Vušković comes on for M. Pongračić.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Spain 2-1 Croatia.

45'

1 minute of added time.

45'

F. López

Off the woodwork! F. López (Spain), left-footed shot. xG 0.05.

44'

F. López

Attempt blocked. F. López (Spain), left-footed shot. xG 0.10.

37'

P. Sučić

Yellow card for P. Sučić (Croatia) for foul.

36'

F. López

Attempt saved. F. López (Spain), left-footed shot. xG 0.13.

36'

Spain

Offside, Spain.

35'

F. López

Attempt missed. F. López (Spain), left-footed shot. xG 0.10.

31'

Pubill

Goal! Spain 2-1 Croatia. Pubill (Spain) scores, assisted by L. Yamal.

31'

Spain

Corner, Spain.

28'

D. D. Beljo

Goal! Spain 1-1 Croatia. D. D. Beljo (Croatia) scores, assisted by I. Perišić.

27'

Spain

Offside, Spain.

20'

M. Zubimendi

Attempt blocked. M. Zubimendi (Spain), left-footed shot. xG 0.10.

20'

P. Cubarsí

Attempt missed. P. Cubarsí (Spain), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

18'

M. Pongračić

Yellow card for M. Pongračić (Croatia) for foul.

16'

Spain

Offside, Spain.

9'

Spain

Offside, Spain.

4'

A. Baena

Attempt saved. A. Baena (Spain), right-footed shot. xG 0.26.

4'

M. Cucurella

Attempt blocked. M. Cucurella (Spain), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

4'

Spain

Corner, Spain.

2'

L. Yamal

Goal! Spain 1-0 Croatia. L. Yamal (Spain) scores, assisted by A. Baena.

1'

Kick-off: Spain vs Croatia.

Where the money is

2925572 EUR matched · captured 1 month, 2 weeks ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 2052320 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

91.5%

-7.5 vs price

Draw 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

4.6%

+4.5 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

3.8%

+3.7 vs price

Half time 18607 EUR · live

Home 1.07 · implied 93.5%

76.0%

-17.4 vs price

Draw 16.5 · implied 6.1%

22.0%

+16.0 vs price

Away 90.0 · implied 1.1%

2.0%

+0.9 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 64085 EUR · live

Over 1.07 · implied 93.5%

76.3%

-17.2 vs price

Under 14.5 · implied 6.9%

23.7%

+16.8 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 10139 EUR · live

Under 1.9 · implied 52.6%

60.1%

+7.4 vs price

Over 2.1 · implied 47.6%

39.9%

-7.7 vs price

18 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 7 clips

Player of the match

Match events

2' ⚽ L. Yamal · assist A. Baena1–0

18' M. Pongračić · Foul

28' ⚽ D. D. Beljo · assist I. Perišić1–1

31' ⚽ Pubill · assist L. Yamal2–1

37' P. Sučić · Foul

Half-time · 2–1

46' 🔁 L. Vušković ◂ M. Pongračić

49' A. Baena · Persistent fouling

54' M. Pašalić · Foul

57' 🔁 Pedri ◂ F. Ruiz

57' 🔁 M. Merino ◂ F. López

58' J. Mišić · Foul

60' 🔁 M. Pašalić ◂ M. Kovačić

60' 🔁 A. Budimir ◂ D. D. Beljo

63' ⚽ L. Yamal · assist Pedri3–1

68' 🔁 V. Muñoz ◂ L. Yamal

68' 🔁 N. Williams ◂ A. Baena

72' 🔁 Rodri ◂ M. Zubimendi

72' 🔁 F. Ivanović ◂ I. Perišić

81' 🔁 L. Modrić ◂ P. Sučić

89' ⚽ N. Williams · assist M. Merino4–1

Full-time · 4–1

Coaches

Luis De La Fuente

Slaven Bilić

Recent form

Spain

WAEngland3-2

WHArgentina1-0

WAFrance2-0

WHBelgium2-1

WAPortugal1-0

Croatia

WACzechia2-1

LAPortugal1-2

WHGhana2-1

WAPanama1-0

LAEngland2-4

About this match

**Spain's rolling red-hot streak hits the crossroads** — fresh off dismantling France and England, La Roja are basically untouchable right now, while Croatia bring a wobblier résumé and the weight of recent defeats. 🔴

Spain's 5-0 run is legit; Croatia have been clunky (losses to Portugal, France lurking in the background). The home crowd at the Sánchez Pizjuán should needle Croatia's passing lanes even more.

Key storylines:

- **Rodri and Pedri** orchestrating Spain's midfield dominance — Croatia's **Modrić and Sučić** have to match that tempo or get overrun
- **Yamal and Williams** on the flanks hunting space; Croatia's backline (Gvardiol, Šutalo) tested early and often
- Spain's attack-minded shape with **Olmo and Oyarzabal** giving Croatia's full-backs nightmares

Expected lineups:

- **Spain**: Simón, Cucurella, Cubarsí, Laporte, Llorente, Rodri, Pedri, Williams, Olmo, Yamal, Oyarzabal
- **Croatia**: Livaković, Gvardiol, Šutalo, Pongračić, Stanišić, Sučić, Modrić, Perišić, Vlašić, Pašalić, Budimir

Prediction:

**Spain 2–0 Croatia**. Spain have the form, the home comfort, and the midfield edge; Croatia's defensive frailties get exposed. 🎯

Where to watch

RTVE PlayTVE La 1

Match facts

Stadium

Ramón Sánchez Pizjuán

City

Seville

Referee

Serdar Gozubuyuk

3.92 yellows/match · 83 matches

Kickoff

29 Sep, 18:45 UTC

Competition

UEFA Nations League

Highlights & clips

Spain 4-3-3 · 4-2-3-1 Croatia

23 U. Simón 7.0 12 Pubill 7.8 5 P. Cubarsí 7.3 2 D. Huijsen 7.1 22 M. Cucurella 6.9 20 Pedri 7.2 ↑ 57' 16 Rodri 7.0 ↑ 72' 6 M. Merino 6.8 ↑ 57' 17 N. Williams 7.6 ↑ 68' 21 M. Oyarzabal 6.3 11 V. Muñoz 6.3 ↑ 68' 1 D. Livaković 4.5 2 I. Smolčić 6.3 6 J. Šutalo 6.5 5 L. Vušković 6.9 ↑ 46' 4 J. Gvardiol 5.9 22 J. Mišić 6.7 15 M. Pašalić 6.3 ↑ 60' 19 M. Pašalić 6.3 10 L. Modrić 6.7 ↑ 81' 7 F. Ivanović 6.6 ↑ 72' 11 A. Budimir 6.4 ↑ 60'

Substitutes

1GD. Raya 13GJ. Martínez 4DI. Fresneda 14DA. Laporte 19ML. Yamal↓ 68'9.9 18MM. Zubimendi↓ 72'7.3 8MF. Ruiz↓ 57'7.2 9MF. López↓ 57'7.1 15MA. Baena↓ 68'6.7 10MD. Olmo 3MA. Grimaldo 7FF. Torres

Coach: Luis De La Fuente

Substitutes

12GI. Pandur 23GD. Kotarski 3DM. Pongračić↓ 46'6.0 14MI. Perišić↓ 72'7.0 8MM. Kovačić↓ 60'6.9 17MP. Sučić↓ 81'6.6 16MM. Baturina 13MN. Vlašić 18MK. Jakić 21ML. Sučić 20FD. D. Beljo↓ 60'7.1 9FA. Kramarić

Coach: Slaven Bilić

Top stats

64%Possession36%

1.81Expected goals (xG)0.47

16Total shots5

7Shots on target2

4Big chances1

6Corners2

Shots

6Shots off target1

3Blocked shots2

12Shots inside box4

4Shots outside box1

1Hit woodwork0

3Big chances scored1

1Big chances missed0

-0.13Goals prevented-1.51

Attack

38Touches in box12

58Final third entries34

5Offsides0

10Free kicks9

1Fouled in final third2

Passing

620Passes345

568Accurate passes296

17/27 (63%)Long balls20/38 (53%)

3/11 (27%)Crosses5/12 (42%)

12Throw-ins6

Duels

53Duels47

33/67 (49%)Ground duels34/67 (51%)

6/7 (86%)Aerial duels1/7 (14%)

9/23 (39%)Dribbles4/7 (57%)

7Dispossessed12

Defending

15Tackles21

40Tackles won67

8Interceptions9

14Clearances20

46Recoveries40

Discipline

9Fouls10

1Yellow cards4

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

1Saves3

0Big saves1

2Goal kicks6

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers

Spain 78%

14%

Croatia 8%

1X2Spain to win 78% · 1.44 @ Bet365

Who winsSpain to win (DNB) 77% · 1.07 @ Betano

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 65% · 3.25 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 83% · 1.73 @ William Hill

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 71% · 1.38 @ 1xBet

BTTSBTTS: No 53% · 1.28 @ Bet365

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 59% · 1.67 @ 1xBet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 52% · 1.73 @ betfair

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 61% · 1.76 @ 1xBet

1X2Draw 14% · 3.70 @ 1xBet

1X2Croatia to win 8% · 9.50 @ William Hill

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.21

Spain

7.00

Draw

11.95

Croatia

Double Chanceconsensus

1.05

Spain or Draw

1.09

Spain or Croatia

4.05

Draw or Croatia

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.91

Yes

1.82

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

2.05

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

21.00

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.01

Over 0.50

17.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.10

Over 1.50

5.85

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.43

Over 2.50

2.70

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.15

Over 3.50

1.71

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

3.55

Over 4.50

1.27

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.05

Spain

8.88

Croatia

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.37

Over 7.50

2.75

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.68

Over 8.50

2.06

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.14

Over 9.50

1.63

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.72

Over 10.50

1.37

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

3.62

Over 11.50

1.21

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

Spain to win or draw

✓

92% confidence

Over 1.5 goals

✓

83% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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