Greece 2-2 Netherlands: Stats, xG & Lineups – Oct 1, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Greece 2-2 Netherlands.

90+3'

G. Zechiël

Attempt saved. G. Zechiël (Netherlands), header. xG 0.04.

90'

5 minutes of added time.

89'

T. Reijnders

Goal! Greece 2-2 Netherlands. T. Reijnders (Netherlands) scores.

89'

G. Zechiël

Attempt blocked. G. Zechiël (Netherlands), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

88'

J. Zirkzee

Attempt saved. J. Zirkzee (Netherlands), header. xG 0.11.

88'

Netherlands

Corner, Netherlands.

85'

Netherlands

Corner, Netherlands.

84'

J. Veerman

Attempt missed. J. Veerman (Netherlands), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

83'

D. Dumfries

Attempt missed. D. Dumfries (Netherlands), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

83'

A. Androutsos

Substitution, Greece: A. Douvikas comes on for A. Androutsos.

83'

K. Karetsas

Substitution, Greece: G. Michailidis comes on for K. Karetsas.

78'

J. Timber

Substitution, Netherlands: G. Zechiël comes on for J. Timber.

76'

N. Lang

Yellow card for N. Lang (Netherlands) for argument.

76'

M. Saliakas

Yellow card for M. Saliakas (Greece) for foul.

75'

Greece

Corner, Greece.

73'

Netherlands

Offside, Netherlands.

73'

V. van Dijk

Attempt missed. V. van Dijk (Netherlands), header from a corner. xG 0.03.

72'

Netherlands

Corner, Netherlands.

72'

R. Gravenberch

Attempt blocked. R. Gravenberch (Netherlands), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

71'

F. Ioannidis

Substitution, Greece: A. Tetteh comes on for F. Ioannidis.

71'

V. Pavlidis

Substitution, Greece: C. Zafeiris comes on for V. Pavlidis.

70'

Greece

Offside, Greece.

70'

M. Meerdink

Substitution, Netherlands: J. Zirkzee comes on for M. Meerdink.

67'

K. Tzolakis

Yellow card for K. Tzolakis (Greece) for time wasting.

66'

D. Dumfries

VAR check complete: the goal for Netherlands stands.

65'

M. Meerdink

Attempt blocked. M. Meerdink (Netherlands), header. xG 0.12.

64'

N. Lang

Attempt blocked. N. Lang (Netherlands), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

63'

V. Pavlidis

Attempt missed. V. Pavlidis (Greece), header from a corner. xG 0.01.

62'

Greece

Corner, Greece.

59'

V. van Dijk

Goal! Greece 2-1 Netherlands. V. van Dijk (Netherlands) scores, assisted by J. Veerman.

59'

R. Gravenberch

Attempt blocked. R. Gravenberch (Netherlands), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

59'

Netherlands

Corner, Netherlands.

56'

Netherlands

Corner, Netherlands.

56'

C. Summerville

Attempt blocked. C. Summerville (Netherlands), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

53'

Netherlands

Corner, Netherlands.

53'

J. Veerman

Attempt blocked. J. Veerman (Netherlands), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.04.

46'

R. van Bommel

Substitution, Netherlands: N. Lang comes on for R. van Bommel.

46'

G. Til

Substitution, Netherlands: T. Reijnders comes on for G. Til.

46'

Q. Timber

Substitution, Netherlands: R. Gravenberch comes on for Q. Timber.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Greece 2-0 Netherlands.

45+2'

G. Masouras

Goal! Greece 2-0 Netherlands. G. Masouras (Greece) scores, assisted by F. Ioannidis.

45'

2 minutes of added time.

40'

R. van Bommel

Attempt blocked. R. van Bommel (Netherlands), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

38'

K. Mavropanos

Attempt saved. K. Mavropanos (Greece), header from a corner. xG 0.02.

37'

Greece

Corner, Greece.

37'

K. Karetsas

Attempt saved. K. Karetsas (Greece), right-footed shot. xG 0.13.

23'

F. Ioannidis

Goal! Greece 1-0 Netherlands. F. Ioannidis (Greece) scores, assisted by G. Masouras.

18'

C. Tzolis

Substitution, Greece: G. Masouras comes on for C. Tzolis.

18'

Netherlands

Corner, Netherlands.

17'

Greece

Corner, Greece.

15'

A. Androutsos

Attempt blocked. A. Androutsos (Greece), right-footed shot. xG 0.12.

15'

K. Tsimikas

Attempt blocked. K. Tsimikas (Greece), left-footed shot. xG 0.09.

15'

Greece

Corner, Greece.

12'

C. Summerville

Attempt missed. C. Summerville (Netherlands), right-footed shot. xG 0.16.

10'

C. Summerville

Attempt saved. C. Summerville (Netherlands), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

8'

J. Timber

Attempt missed. J. Timber (Netherlands), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.05.

7'

Netherlands

Corner, Netherlands.

7'

G. Til

Attempt blocked. G. Til (Netherlands), left-footed shot. xG 0.09.

6'

M. Saliakas

Attempt missed. M. Saliakas (Greece), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

2'

Greece

Offside, Greece.

1'

Kick-off: Greece vs Netherlands.

Where the money is

3288290 EUR matched · captured 1 month, 1 week ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 2355441 EUR · live

Home 90.0 · implied 1.1%

57.3%

+56.1 vs price

Away 24.0 · implied 4.2%

23.2%

+19.1 vs price

Draw 1.04 · implied 96.2%

19.5%

-76.7 vs price

Half time 14277 EUR · live

Home 1.2 · implied 83.3%

70.0%

-13.4 vs price

Draw 6.4 · implied 15.6%

17.4%

+1.7 vs price

Away 65.0 · implied 1.5%

12.7%

+11.2 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 216574 EUR · live

Over 1.36 · implied 73.5%

56.7%

-16.8 vs price

Under 3.75 · implied 26.7%

43.3%

+16.6 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 29683 EUR · live

Under 1.03 · implied 97.1%

96.1%

-1.0 vs price

Over 30.0 · implied 3.3%

3.9%

+0.6 vs price

19 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

18' 🔁 G. Masouras ◂ C. Tzolis

23' ⚽ F. Ioannidis · assist G. Masouras1–0

Half-time · 2–0

45'⁺² ⚽ G. Masouras · assist F. Ioannidis2–0

46' 🔁 R. Gravenberch ◂ Q. Timber

46' 🔁 T. Reijnders ◂ G. Til

46' 🔁 N. Lang ◂ R. van Bommel

59' ⚽ V. van Dijk · assist J. Veerman2–1

66' VAR Goal not given after review · D. Dumfries

67' K. Tzolakis · Time wasting

70' 🔁 J. Zirkzee ◂ M. Meerdink

71' 🔁 C. Zafeiris ◂ V. Pavlidis

71' 🔁 A. Tetteh ◂ F. Ioannidis

76' N. Lang · Argument

76' M. Saliakas · Foul

78' 🔁 G. Zechiël ◂ J. Timber

83' 🔁 G. Michailidis ◂ K. Karetsas

83' 🔁 A. Douvikas ◂ A. Androutsos

89' ⚽ T. Reijnders2–2

Full-time · 2–2

Coaches

Ivan Jovanović

Xavi

Recent form

Greece

WAGermany1-0

WASerbia2-1

LHItaly0-1

DASweden2-2

DAHungary0-0

Netherlands

WASerbia2-1

DHGermany1-1

DHMorocco1-1

WATunisia3-1

WHSweden5-1

About this match

**Greece hosts the Netherlands in a Nations League clash where the hosts fancy their chances** — the Greeks are riding a sharp streak and won't fear anyone at home. 🔥

Greece have been quietly impressive on their travels, grabbing wins in Germany and Serbia. The Dutch arrive without their star attackers but are still unbeaten in this window, which tells you something about their depth.

Key storylines:

- **V. van Dijk** anchors a Netherlands defence that's held firm despite injury chaos in attack — Greece's **A. Douvikas** will test that resilience
- Greece's midfield has been a proper engine; **D. Kourbelis** and **C. Tzolis** will need to control the tempo or the Dutch transition game takes over
- **M. Depay** and **W. Weghorst** inherit a bigger workload with half the attack sidelined — clinical finishing becomes everything

Expected lineups:

- **Greece**: K. Tzolakis, K. Tsimikas, P. Retsos, K. Mavropanos, G. Vagiannidis, C. Tzolis, D. Kourbelis, V. Pavlidis, C. Zafeiris, A. Tetteh, A. Douvikas
- **Netherlands**: B. Verbruggen, J. P. van Hecke, V. van Dijk, M. van de Ven, L. Geertruida, R. Gravenberch, D. Dumfries, T. Reijnders, J. Kluivert, M. Depay, W. Weghorst

Prediction:

**Greece 1-1 Netherlands**. Slight edge to Greece at home, but the Dutch have enough craft to get out of Thessaloniki unbeaten.

Where to watch

A Spor

Match facts

Stadium

Toumba Stadium

City

Thessaloniki

Referee

Marco Guida

3.36 yellows/match · 50 matches

Kickoff

01 Oct, 18:45 UTC

Competition

UEFA Nations League

Highlights & clips

Greece 4-4-2 · 4-2-3-1 Netherlands

12 K. Tzolakis 5.6 17 M. Saliakas 6.7 4 K. Mavropanos 7.6 5 P. Retsos 6.8 21 K. Tsimikas 6.3 18 G. Michailidis 6.3 ↑ 83' 6 D. Kourbelis 6.8 9 A. Douvikas 6.5 ↑ 83' 7 G. Masouras 8.0 ↑ 18' 20 C. Zafeiris 6.4 ↑ 71' 16 A. Tetteh 6.5 ↑ 71' 1 B. Verbruggen 6.3 22 D. Dumfries 6.2 21 G. Zechiël 6.7 ↑ 78' 4 V. van Dijk 8.1 15 M. van de Ven 6.7 18 J. Veerman 7.8 8 R. Gravenberch 6.7 ↑ 46' 7 C. Summerville 6.8 14 T. Reijnders 7.7 ↑ 46' 10 N. Lang 7.5 ↑ 46' 9 J. Zirkzee 6.6 ↑ 70'

Top stats

29%Possession71%

0.96Expected goals (xG)1.18

8Total shots19

4Shots on target5

3Big chances1

6Corners8

Shots

2Shots off target5

2Blocked shots9

8Shots inside box14

0Shots outside box5

2Big chances scored1

1Big chances missed0

-1.22Goals prevented-0.18

Attack

13Touches in box37

34Final third entries80

3Offsides4

7Free kicks6

0Fouled in final third3

Passing

250Passes619

181Accurate passes551

25/54 (46%)Long balls9/22 (41%)

2/10 (20%)Crosses8/26 (31%)

17Throw-ins24

Duels

46Duels54

26/62 (42%)Ground duels36/62 (58%)

12/21 (57%)Aerial duels9/21 (43%)

1/9 (11%)Dribbles13/25 (52%)

9Dispossessed6

Defending

18Tackles17

61Tackles won71

6Interceptions3

44Clearances10

36Recoveries45

Discipline

6Fouls7

2Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

1Big saves0

12Goal kicks3

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Greece 28%

26%

Netherlands 46%

Who winsNetherlands to win (DNB) 59% · 1.58 @ Unibet

1X2Netherlands to win 46% · 2.39 @ 1xBet

BTTSBoth teams to score 60% · 2.80 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 56% · 3.90 @ William Hill

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 71% · 1.38 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 59% · 1.67 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 78% · 1.91 @ William Hill

1X2Draw 26% · 2.68 @ 1xBet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 53% · 1.75 @ betfair

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 66% · 1.48 @ Pinnacle

1X2Greece to win 28% · 3.50 @ William Hill

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

3.27

Greece

3.60

Draw

2.10

Netherlands

Double Chanceconsensus

1.70

Greece or Draw

1.25

Greece or Netherlands

1.30

Draw or Netherlands

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.53

Yes

2.37

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

6.50

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

3.80

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

13.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.18

Over 1.50

4.50

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.65

Over 2.50

2.21

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.58

Over 3.50

1.46

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

5.00

Over 4.50

1.14

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

2.30

Greece

1.53

Netherlands

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.44

Over 7.50

2.60

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.74

Over 8.50

2.09

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.20

Over 9.50

1.66

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.88

Over 10.50

1.34

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

4.03

Over 11.50

1.17

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.3%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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