Wales 2-1 Norway: Stats, xG & Lineups – Oct 1, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Wales 2-1 Norway.

90+3'

S. Thomas

Yellow card for S. Thomas (Wales) for argument.

90+3'

M. Ødegaard

Yellow card for M. Ødegaard (Norway) for argument.

90+3'

E. Ampadu

Yellow card for E. Ampadu (Wales) for foul.

90'

3 minutes of added time.

89'

L. Østigård

Attempt blocked. L. Østigård (Norway), header from a set piece. xG 0.04.

87'

J. Larsen

Attempt missed. J. Larsen (Norway), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

86'

M. Harris

Attempt saved. M. Harris (Wales), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

85'

L. Koumas

Substitution, Wales: M. Harris comes on for L. Koumas.

83'

A. Nusa

Attempt blocked. A. Nusa (Norway), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

82'

Wales

Offside, Wales.

81'

M. Ødegaard

Attempt blocked. M. Ødegaard (Norway), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

81'

E. Haaland

Attempt saved. E. Haaland (Norway), header. xG 0.11.

77'

J. Sheehan

Attempt saved. J. Sheehan (Wales), right-footed shot. xG 0.19.

76'

L. Cullen

Substitution, Wales: J. Colwill comes on for L. Cullen.

76'

D. James

Substitution, Wales: B. Johnson comes on for D. James.

75'

D. M. Wolfe

Substitution, Norway: J. Larsen comes on for D. M. Wolfe.

75'

A. Schjelderup

Substitution, Norway: A. Nusa comes on for A. Schjelderup.

75'

J. James

Substitution, Wales: J. Sheehan comes on for J. James.

75'

Wales

Offside, Wales.

71'

S. Thomas

Attempt missed. S. Thomas (Wales), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.01.

70'

Wales

Corner, Wales.

68'

D. James

Attempt saved. D. James (Wales), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.21.

58'

E. Haaland

Attempt missed. E. Haaland (Norway), header. xG 0.24.

55'

Wales

Offside, Wales.

54'

J. James

Attempt missed. J. James (Wales), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

51'

T. Aasgaard

Attempt blocked. T. Aasgaard (Norway), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.05.

51'

S. Berge

Attempt blocked. S. Berge (Norway), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

50'

A. Schjelderup

Attempt blocked. A. Schjelderup (Norway), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.07.

50'

Norway

Corner, Norway.

49'

O. Bobb

Substitution, Norway: L. Østigård comes on for O. Bobb.

48'

N. Williams

Goal! Wales 2-1 Norway. N. Williams (Wales) scores.

46'

F. Aursnes

Substitution, Norway: T. Aasgaard comes on for F. Aursnes.

46'

T. Heggem

Red card! T. Heggem (Norway) is sent off for professional foul last man.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Wales 1-1 Norway.

45+2'

A. Schjelderup

Attempt missed. A. Schjelderup (Norway), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.03.

45+1'

Norway

Corner, Norway.

45'

2 minutes of added time.

38'

D. James

Goal! Wales 1-1 Norway. D. James (Wales) scores, assisted by S. Thomas.

37'

J. James

Yellow card for J. James (Wales) for foul.

34'

E. Ampadu

Attempt missed. E. Ampadu (Wales), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

33'

N. Williams

Attempt missed. N. Williams (Wales), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

33'

L. Cullen

Attempt saved. L. Cullen (Wales), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

29'

B. Davies

Attempt missed. B. Davies (Wales), header. xG 0.03.

28'

Wales

Corner, Wales.

21'

M. Ødegaard

Attempt saved. M. Ødegaard (Norway), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

16'

J. Ryerson

Substitution, Norway: M. Pedersen comes on for J. Ryerson.

13'

J. James

Attempt blocked. J. James (Wales), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

11'

O. Bobb

Goal! Wales 0-1 Norway. O. Bobb (Norway) scores, assisted by M. Ødegaard.

10'

D. M. Wolfe

Attempt saved. D. M. Wolfe (Norway), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

7'

Norway

Corner, Norway.

1'

Wales

Corner, Wales.

1'

Kick-off: Wales vs Norway.

Where the money is

5268390 EUR matched · captured 1 month, 1 week ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 4372316 EUR · live

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

72.6%

+72.5 vs price

Home 1.03 · implied 97.1%

23.1%

-74.0 vs price

Draw 36.0 · implied 2.8%

4.5%

+1.7 vs price

Half time 19611 EUR · live

Away 6.8 · implied 14.7%

87.7%

+73.0 vs price

Draw 1.33 · implied 75.2%

9.1%

-66.1 vs price

Home 11.5 · implied 8.7%

3.2%

-5.5 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 121180 EUR · live

Over 1.2 · implied 83.3%

75.2%

-8.1 vs price

Under 6.0 · implied 16.7%

24.8%

+8.1 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 20790 EUR · live

Under 1.27 · implied 78.7%

88.1%

+9.3 vs price

Over 4.6 · implied 21.7%

11.9%

-9.8 vs price

20 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

11' ⚽ O. Bobb · assist M. Ødegaard0–1

16' 🔁 M. Pedersen ◂ J. Ryerson

37' J. James · Foul

38' ⚽ D. James · assist S. Thomas1–1

Half-time · 1–1

46' T. Heggem · Professional foul last man

46' 🔁 T. Aasgaard ◂ F. Aursnes

48' ⚽ N. Williams2–1

49' 🔁 L. Østigård ◂ O. Bobb

75' 🔁 J. Sheehan ◂ J. James

75' 🔁 A. Nusa ◂ A. Schjelderup

75' 🔁 J. Larsen ◂ D. M. Wolfe

76' 🔁 B. Johnson ◂ D. James

76' 🔁 J. Colwill ◂ L. Cullen

85' 🔁 M. Harris ◂ L. Koumas

Full-time · 2–1

90'⁺³ E. Ampadu · Foul

90'⁺³ M. Ødegaard · Argument

90'⁺³ S. Thomas · Argument

Coaches

Craig Bellamy

Ståle Solbakken

Recent form

Wales

LADenmark0-2

LAPortugal0-1

LARomania1-2

DHGhana1-1

DHNorthern Ireland1-1

Norway

LHPortugal1-2

WHDenmark3-2

LHEngland1-2

WABrazil2-1

WACôte d'Ivoire2-1

About this match

**Wales are desperate, Norway are hot** — the hosts haven't won in five matches, while the visitors have picked up three Ws in their last five outings. 🔥

Wales have shipped goals for fun (conceded 5 in three away losses), but they do have a home fortress vibe and beat Norway last time. Norway, meanwhile, are riding momentum — they've turned it on in League A with wins over Denmark and England at home, even if they lost to Portugal twice.

Key storylines:

- **Wales** desperately need a W to avoid the Nations League basement, and home advantage at Cardiff could be the spark they've lacked
- **Norway's** attacking threat** has been lethal — Sørloth and Haaland have been clinical — but Norway have also shown vulnerability defensively in tight matches
- **Set-piece battles** could swing it; both teams' defenses look a touch fragile, so corners and free-kicks matter here

Expected lineups:

- **Wales**: D. Ward, N. Williams, J. DaSilva, B. Davies, B. Cabango, E. Ampadu, D. James, B. Johnson, J. Sheehan, K. Moore, L. Koumas
- **Norway**: Ø. Nyland, D. M. Wolfe, K. Ajer, H. S. Falchener, T. Heggem, S. Berge, J. Ryerson, F. Aursnes, E. Haaland, A. Sørloth, A. Nusa

Prediction:

**Wales 1–1 Norway**. Home draw feels right — Wales scrappy but gritty, Norway wasteful in the final third when it counts. 🤝

Where to watch

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Match facts

Stadium

Cardiff City Stadium

City

Cardiff

Referee

Alejandro Hernandez

4.67 yellows/match · 69 matches

Kickoff

01 Oct, 18:45 UTC

Competition

UEFA Nations League

Highlights & clips

Wales 4-2-3-1 · 4-3-3 Norway

12 D. Ward 6.7 3 N. Williams 7.9 6 B. Cabango 7.7 4 B. Davies 7.0 15 J. DaSilva 7.2 22 J. Sheehan 6.8 ↑ 75' 5 E. Ampadu 7.4 23 J. Colwill 6.5 ↑ 76' 11 B. Johnson 6.6 ↑ 76' 19 S. Thomas 7.4 18 M. Harris 6.7 ↑ 85' 1 Ø. Nyland 7.0 16 M. Pedersen 6.4 ↑ 16' 3 K. Ajer 6.5 17 T. Heggem 5.6 20 A. Nusa 7.1 ↑ 75' 10 M. Ødegaard 7.6 8 S. Berge 7.2 19 T. Aasgaard 6.3 ↑ 46' 4 L. Østigård 7.0 ↑ 49' 9 E. Haaland 6.5 11 J. Larsen 6.5 ↑ 75'

Substitutes

1GD. Cornell 21GT. King 2DC. Mepham 16DR. Norrington-Davies 14DC. Roberts 20MD. James↓ 76'7.8 17MJ. James↓ 75'6.5 7MC. Ashford 8MW. Burns 9FL. Koumas↓ 85'6.6 10FL. Cullen↓ 76'6.5 13FK. Moore

Coach: Craig Bellamy

Substitutes

13GE. Selvik 12GS. Tangvik 5DD. M. Wolfe↓ 75'6.2 5DF. Sjøvold 2DO. L. Bjørtuft 22MO. Bobb↓ 49'7.4 21MA. Schjelderup↓ 75'7.0 14MJ. Ryerson↓ 16'6.7 7MF. Aursnes↓ 46'6.5 6MP. Berg 23FE. Botheim 15FO. Blomberg

Coach: Ståle Solbakken

Top stats

50%Possession50%

1.05Expected goals (xG)1.3

12Total shots12

6Shots on target4

2Big chances2

3Corners3

Shots

5Shots off target3

1Blocked shots5

7Shots inside box7

5Shots outside box5

1Big chances scored1

1Big chances missed1

-0.02Goals prevented0.06

Attack

21Touches in box23

51Final third entries62

3Offsides0

7Free kicks11

1Fouled in final third1

Passing

520Passes516

466Accurate passes456

23/45 (51%)Long balls23/48 (48%)

3/20 (15%)Crosses3/15 (20%)

10Throw-ins13

Duels

47Duels53

20/42 (48%)Ground duels22/42 (52%)

9/20 (45%)Aerial duels11/20 (55%)

4/9 (44%)Dribbles4/11 (36%)

3Dispossessed3

Defending

10Tackles8

60Tackles won63

5Interceptions18

22Clearances19

44Recoveries36

Discipline

11Fouls7

3Yellow cards1

0Red cards1

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

0Big saves1

4Goal kicks10

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Wales 15%

20%

Norway 66%

1X2Norway to win 66% · 1.75 @ William Hill

Who winsNorway to win (DNB) 70% · 1.18 @ Bet365

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 61% · 3.30 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 82% · 1.80 @ William Hill

BTTSBoth teams to score 56% · 2.93 @ 1xBet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 58% · 1.73 @ betfair

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 65% · 1.40 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 54% · 1.72 @ Pinnacle

1X2Draw 20% · 3.08 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 62% · 1.66 @ 1xBet

1X2Wales to win 15% · 5.60 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

6.50

Wales

4.80

Draw

1.44

Norway

Double Chanceconsensus

2.71

Wales or Draw

1.15

Wales or Norway

1.11

Draw or Norway

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.65

Yes

2.15

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

13.00

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

2.70

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

17.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.13

Over 1.50

5.50

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.50

Over 2.50

2.50

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.31

Over 3.50

1.62

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

4.00

Over 4.50

1.22

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

4.75

Wales

1.16

Norway

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.40

Over 7.50

2.75

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.69

Over 8.50

2.14

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.10

Over 9.50

1.69

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.76

Over 10.50

1.36

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

3.58

Over 11.50

1.21

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

Norway to win or draw

✗

85% confidence

Over 1.5 goals

✓

82% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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