Latvia 1-2 Montenegro: Stats, xG & Lineups – Oct 2, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Latvia 1-2 Montenegro.

90+4'

A. Latković

Yellow card for A. Latković (Montenegro).

90+2'

D. Cirkin

Attempt missed. D. Cirkin (Latvia), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.06.

90'

4 minutes of added time.

90'

M. Strods

Attempt blocked. M. Strods (Latvia), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

89'

Latvia

Corner, Latvia.

86'

A. Cigaņiks

Attempt blocked. A. Cigaņiks (Latvia), right-footed shot. xG 0.09.

82'

M. Strods

Goal! Latvia 1-2 Montenegro. M. Strods (Latvia) scores, assisted by K. Cudars.

82'

Latvia

Corner, Latvia.

81'

M. Strods

Attempt missed. M. Strods (Latvia), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

80'

M. Strods

Attempt blocked. M. Strods (Latvia), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

79'

V. Gutkovskis

Attempt missed. V. Gutkovskis (Latvia), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

78'

S. Jovetić

Substitution, Montenegro: D. Vuković comes on for S. Jovetić.

78'

D. Zelenkovs

Substitution, Latvia: K. Cudars comes on for D. Zelenkovs.

78'

D. Patijčuks

Substitution, Latvia: M. Strods comes on for D. Patijčuks.

77'

S. Jovetić

Attempt missed. S. Jovetić (Montenegro), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

73'

M. Brnović

Attempt blocked. M. Brnović (Montenegro), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

72'

Montenegro

Corner, Montenegro.

71'

M. Perović

Attempt saved. M. Perović (Montenegro), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

69'

V. Đukanović

Attempt missed. V. Đukanović (Montenegro), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.27.

68'

N. Krstović

Substitution, Montenegro: A. Latković comes on for N. Krstović.

65'

A. Černomordijs

Substitution, Latvia: E. Daskevics comes on for A. Černomordijs.

65'

R. Uldriķis

Substitution, Latvia: V. Gutkovskis comes on for R. Uldriķis.

64'

N. Krstović

Attempt saved. N. Krstović (Montenegro), right-footed shot. xG 0.12.

61'

M. Janković

Substitution, Montenegro: V. Đukanović comes on for M. Janković.

61'

M. Osmajić

Substitution, Montenegro: M. Brnović comes on for M. Osmajić.

60'

R. Radunović

Substitution, Montenegro: M. Perović comes on for R. Radunović.

59'

S. Jovetić

Off the woodwork! S. Jovetić (Montenegro), right-footed shot. xG 0.52.

56'

V. Adžić

Goal! Latvia 0-2 Montenegro. V. Adžić (Montenegro) scores.

53'

D. Zelenkovs

Attempt blocked. D. Zelenkovs (Latvia), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

53'

R. Uldriķis

Off the woodwork! R. Uldriķis (Latvia), right-footed shot. xG 0.19.

50'

Montenegro

Corner, Montenegro.

49'

Latvia

Corner, Latvia.

46'

Latvia

Corner, Latvia.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Latvia 0-1 Montenegro.

45'

1 minute of added time.

45'

N. Krstović

Attempt saved. N. Krstović (Montenegro), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.22.

43'

R. Uldriķis

Off the woodwork! R. Uldriķis (Latvia), header. xG 0.10.

39'

A. Černomordijs

Yellow card for A. Černomordijs (Latvia) for handball.

38'

D. Patijčuks

Attempt blocked. D. Patijčuks (Latvia), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

34'

Montenegro

Offside, Montenegro.

31'

M. Vešović

Attempt saved. M. Vešović (Montenegro), right-footed shot. xG 0.16.

31'

S. Jovetić

Attempt missed. S. Jovetić (Montenegro), header. xG 0.08.

28'

R. Savaļnieks

Substitution, Latvia: R. Jurkovskis comes on for R. Savaļnieks.

22'

N. Krstović

Attempt missed. N. Krstović (Montenegro), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.05.

20'

A. Cigaņiks

Attempt blocked. A. Cigaņiks (Latvia), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.06.

19'

Latvia

Corner, Latvia.

17'

L. Vapne

Attempt missed. L. Vapne (Latvia), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

15'

M. Osmajić

Attempt missed. M. Osmajić (Montenegro), header. xG 0.06.

15'

S. Jovetić

Attempt missed. S. Jovetić (Montenegro), right-footed shot. xG 0.25.

13'

Montenegro

Corner, Montenegro.

5'

D. Cirkin

Attempt saved. D. Cirkin (Latvia), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

3'

V. Adžić

Goal! Latvia 0-1 Montenegro. V. Adžić (Montenegro) scores, assisted by R. Radunović.

1'

Kick-off: Latvia vs Montenegro.

Where the money is

913808 EUR matched · captured 1 month, 1 week ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 433549 EUR · live

Away 1.04 · implied 96.2%

93.1%

-3.1 vs price

Draw 26.0 · implied 3.8%

4.6%

+0.7 vs price

Home 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

2.3%

+2.2 vs price

Half time 6567 EUR · live

Away 1.19 · implied 84.0%

84.4%

+0.4 vs price

Draw 7.0 · implied 14.3%

8.3%

-6.0 vs price

Home 42.0 · implied 2.4%

7.3%

+4.9 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 261568 EUR · live

Over 2.64 · implied 37.9%

70.6%

+32.7 vs price

Under 1.61 · implied 62.1%

29.5%

-32.7 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 7797 EUR · live

Under 1.15 · implied 87.0%

94.3%

+7.4 vs price

Over 6.4 · implied 15.6%

5.7%

-10.0 vs price

14 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

3' ⚽ V. Adžić · assist R. Radunović0–1

28' 🔁 R. Jurkovskis ◂ R. Savaļnieks

39' A. Černomordijs · Handball

Half-time · 0–1

56' ⚽ V. Adžić0–2

60' 🔁 M. Perović ◂ R. Radunović

61' 🔁 M. Brnović ◂ M. Osmajić

61' 🔁 V. Đukanović ◂ M. Janković

65' 🔁 V. Gutkovskis ◂ R. Uldriķis

65' 🔁 E. Daskevics ◂ A. Černomordijs

68' 🔁 A. Latković ◂ N. Krstović

78' 🔁 M. Strods ◂ D. Patijčuks

78' 🔁 K. Cudars ◂ D. Zelenkovs

78' 🔁 D. Vuković ◂ S. Jovetić

82' ⚽ M. Strods · assist K. Cudars1–2

Full-time · 1–2

90'⁺⁴ A. Latković

Coaches

Paolo Nicolato

Mirko Vučinić

Recent form

Latvia

DHCyprus0-0

LAArmenia0-2

WHGibraltar1-0

WAGibraltar1-0

LASerbia1-2

Montenegro

WAArmenia3-2

WHCyprus2-1

DASlovakia2-2

WABulgaria1-0

LHSlovenia2-3

About this match

**Montenegro rolls in as serious favorites** — they're in far sharper form and have owned this fixture historically, while Latvia's been grinding out narrow home results. 🔥

Latvia are scrappy at Skonto but vulnerable to pace; Montenegro just demolished Armenia 3-2 away and haven't lost in their last four. The Montenegrin midfield will likely control tempo here if Latvia can't press early.

Key storylines:

- **Montenegro's attacking depth** — N. Krstović and M. Osmajić offer directness that Latvia's backline (R. Jurkovskis, A. Černomordijs) will struggle to handle on the counter
- **Latvia lean on home fortress** — V. Gutkovskis and E. Daskevics have been their creative spark, but they'll need early intensity to stay in this
- **Midfield battle shapes it** — A. Duric and M. Janković have been Montenegro's engine; if they settle, Latvia could nab a draw

Expected lineups:

- **Latvia**: R. Matrevics, A. Cigaņiks, A. Černomordijs, R. Jurkovskis, D. Balodis, R. Savaļnieks, D. Zelenkovs, L. Vapne, E. Daskevics, A. Saveljevs, V. Gutkovskis
- **Montenegro**: I. Nikić, S. Savić, M. Roganović, O. Gašević, A. Duric, M. Janković, A. Bulatović, V. Adžić, S. Lončar, N. Krstović, M. Osmajić

Prediction:

**Montenegro 2–0 Latvia.** Montenegro's form and head-to-head edge is just too much for a Latvia side playing catchup. ⚫

Where to watch

DStv NowSuperSport Maximo 2SuperSport Premier League

Match facts

Stadium

Skonto

City

Rīga

Referee

Radoslav Gidzhenov

5.30 yellows/match · 47 matches

Kickoff

02 Oct, 16:00 UTC

Competition

UEFA Nations League

Highlights & clips

Latvia 5-4-1 · 4-3-3 Montenegro

23 R. Matrevics 6.3 13 R. Jurkovskis 6.7 ↑ 28' 21 D. Melniks 6.5 7 E. Daskevics 6.6 ↑ 65' 4 O. Vientiess 7.1 3 D. Cirkin 6.6 16 K. Cudars 6.8 ↑ 78' 10 L. Vapne 6.4 17 M. Strods 7.8 ↑ 78' 14 A. Cigaņiks 6.9 9 V. Gutkovskis 6.4 ↑ 65' 1 B. Popović 6.5 7 M. Vešović 6.6 6 S. Rubežić 6.9 5 I. Vujačić 7.2 16 M. Perović 7.2 ↑ 60' 4 M. Brnović 6.7 ↑ 61' 22 S. Lončar 7.7 17 V. Adžić 9.1 19 V. Đukanović 6.8 ↑ 61' 18 A. Latković 6.1 ↑ 68' 23 D. Vuković 6.4 ↑ 78'

Top stats

51%Possession49%

0.97Expected goals (xG)2.41

14Total shots14

2Shots on target6

2Big chances6

5Corners2

Shots

6Shots off target7

6Blocked shots1

7Shots inside box12

7Shots outside box2

2Hit woodwork1

1Big chances scored1

1Big chances missed5

-0.93Goals prevented-0.31

Attack

22Touches in box22

65Final third entries44

0Offsides1

7Free kicks10

Passing

509Passes508

440Accurate passes450

24/44 (55%)Long balls35/58 (60%)

3/34 (9%)Crosses5/12 (42%)

27Throw-ins18

Duels

49Duels51

26/52 (50%)Ground duels26/52 (50%)

9/20 (45%)Aerial duels11/20 (55%)

6/11 (55%)Dribbles7/17 (41%)

5Dispossessed3

Defending

13Tackles10

85Tackles won60

9Interceptions8

16Clearances59

47Recoveries46

Discipline

10Fouls7

1Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

1Big saves0

7Goal kicks4

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Latvia 20%

27%

Montenegro 53%

1X2Montenegro to win 53% · 2.30 @ William Hill

Who winsMontenegro to win (DNB) 62% · 1.30 @ Novibet

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 58% · 1.11 @ William Hill

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 79% · 1.22 @ Pinnacle

BTTSBTTS: No 53% · 1.22 @ William Hill

1X2Draw 27% · 2.37 @ Bet365

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 67% · 1.33 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 56% · 1.63 @ Pinnacle

CornersOver 8.5 corners 56% · 1.76 @ Pinnacle

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 67% · 2.50 @ 1xBet

1X2Latvia to win 20% · 4.90 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

4.72

Latvia

3.45

Draw

1.77

Montenegro

Double Chanceconsensus

2.00

Latvia or Draw

1.25

Latvia or Montenegro

1.18

Draw or Montenegro

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.95

Yes

1.80

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

6.50

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

2.80

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.05

Over 0.50

8.10

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.40

Over 1.50

2.82

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

2.27

Over 2.50

1.61

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

4.34

Over 3.50

1.19

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

9.00

Over 4.50

1.04

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

3.40

Latvia

1.27

Montenegro

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.39

Over 7.50

2.57

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.73

Over 8.50

2.00

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.19

Over 9.50

1.61

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.77

Over 10.50

1.33

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

3.50

Over 11.50

1.18

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

Montenegro to win or draw

✓

80% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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