Finland 2-1 Albania: Stats, xG & Lineups – Oct 3, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Finland 2-1 Albania.

90+4'

A. Mehmeti

Attempt saved. A. Mehmeti (Albania), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.10.

90+1'

Albania

Corner, Albania.

90'

5 minutes of added time.

89'

A. Markhiev

Substitution, Finland: M. Peltola comes on for A. Markhiev.

88'

Albania

Corner, Albania.

87'

M. Daku

Attempt missed. M. Daku (Albania), header. xG 0.06.

86'

A. Svanbäck

Attempt missed. A. Svanbäck (Finland), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

85'

J. Pohjanpalo

Attempt blocked. J. Pohjanpalo (Finland), right-footed shot. xG 0.12.

85'

Finland

Corner, Finland.

84'

Albania

Offside, Albania.

82'

M. Daku

Attempt saved. M. Daku (Albania), right-footed shot. xG 0.30.

82'

M. Uzuni

Attempt missed. M. Uzuni (Albania), right-footed shot. xG 0.09.

82'

L. Walta

Substitution, Finland: O. Valakari comes on for L. Walta.

81'

R. Maran

Yellow card for R. Maran (Albania) for argument.

80'

M. Uzuni

Yellow card for M. Uzuni (Albania) for simulation.

80'

A. Mehmeti

Yellow card for A. Mehmeti (Albania) for argument.

77'

S. Pilios

Substitution, Albania: A. Mehmeti comes on for S. Pilios.

77'

K. Asllani

Substitution, Albania: J. Shehu comes on for K. Asllani.

75'

L. Walta

Attempt blocked. L. Walta (Finland), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.04.

74'

B. Djimsiti

Yellow card for B. Djimsiti (Albania) for foul.

73'

A. Markhiev

Attempt blocked. A. Markhiev (Finland), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

71'

L. Walta

Goal! Finland 2-1 Albania. L. Walta (Finland) scores.

67'

Finland

Corner, Finland.

65'

E. Muçi

Substitution, Albania: M. Uzuni comes on for E. Muçi.

64'

A. Stahl

Attempt missed. A. Stahl (Finland), header from a corner. xG 0.06.

64'

Finland

Corner, Finland.

62'

D. Håkans

Substitution, Finland: O. Jukkola comes on for D. Håkans.

62'

T. Miettinen

Substitution, Finland: L. Väisänen comes on for T. Miettinen.

61'

Finland

Offside, Finland.

61'

S. Pilios

Attempt missed. S. Pilios (Albania), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.05.

60'

S. Pilios

Attempt saved. S. Pilios (Albania), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.14.

59'

A. Ismajli

Attempt blocked. A. Ismajli (Albania), header from a corner. xG 0.01.

59'

B. Djimsiti

Attempt saved. B. Djimsiti (Albania), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.05.

59'

Albania

Corner, Albania.

54'

D. Håkans

Attempt missed. D. Håkans (Finland), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.04.

53'

Finland

Corner, Finland.

46'

K. Kairinen

Substitution, Finland: G. Kamara comes on for K. Kairinen.

46'

R. Manaj

Substitution, Albania: M. Daku comes on for R. Manaj.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Finland 1-1 Albania.

45+1'

J. Pohjanpalo

Attempt saved. J. Pohjanpalo (Finland), header. xG 0.05.

45'

3 minutes of added time.

43'

Finland

Corner, Finland.

42'

A. Ismajli

Attempt missed. A. Ismajli (Albania), header from a corner. xG 0.04.

42'

Y. Ramadani

Attempt missed. Y. Ramadani (Albania), header from a corner. xG 0.08.

41'

Albania

Corner, Albania.

40'

K. Kairinen

Yellow card for K. Kairinen (Finland) for foul.

38'

Albania

Offside, Albania.

37'

T. Miettinen

Attempt blocked. T. Miettinen (Finland), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

30'

Finland

Corner, Finland.

28'

Finland

Corner, Finland.

26'

A. Sherri

Yellow card for A. Sherri (Albania) for argument.

26'

L. Walta

Goal! Finland 1-1 Albania. L. Walta (Finland) scores.

25'

A. Hoxha

Substitution, Albania: A. Sherri comes on for A. Hoxha.

22'

E. Berisha

Red card! E. Berisha (Albania) is sent off for professional foul last man.

15'

A. Hoxha

Attempt missed. A. Hoxha (Albania), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

14'

Albania

Corner, Albania.

13'

R. Manaj

Attempt blocked. R. Manaj (Albania), left-footed shot. xG 0.14.

11'

E. Muçi

Attempt blocked. E. Muçi (Albania), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

6'

Albania

Offside, Albania.

4'

R. Manaj

Goal! Finland 0-1 Albania. R. Manaj (Albania) scores, assisted by K. Asllani.

4'

Albania

Corner, Albania.

3'

D. Håkans

Attempt missed. D. Håkans (Finland), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.01.

1'

Kick-off: Finland vs Albania.

Where the money is

1793055 EUR matched · captured 1 month, 1 week ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 1195850 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

67.1%

-31.9 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

24.9%

+24.8 vs price

Draw 80.0 · implied 1.2%

8.0%

+6.7 vs price

Half time 10100 EUR · live

Away 1.3 · implied 76.9%

87.4%

+10.4 vs price

Draw 5.0 · implied 20.0%

10.4%

-9.6 vs price

Home 32.0 · implied 3.1%

2.2%

-0.9 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 203432 EUR · live

Over 1.89 · implied 52.9%

66.9%

+13.9 vs price

Under 2.12 · implied 47.2%

33.2%

-14.0 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 7656 EUR · live

Under 1.13 · implied 88.5%

91.4%

+2.9 vs price

Over 9.0 · implied 11.1%

8.6%

-2.5 vs price

13 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

4' ⚽ R. Manaj · assist K. Asllani0–1

22' E. Berisha · Professional foul last man

25' 🔁 A. Sherri ◂ A. Hoxha

26' A. Sherri · Argument

26' ⚽ L. Walta1–1

40' K. Kairinen · Foul

Half-time · 1–1

46' 🔁 M. Daku ◂ R. Manaj

46' 🔁 G. Kamara ◂ K. Kairinen

62' 🔁 L. Väisänen ◂ T. Miettinen

62' 🔁 O. Jukkola ◂ D. Håkans

65' 🔁 M. Uzuni ◂ E. Muçi

71' ⚽ L. Walta2–1

74' B. Djimsiti · Foul

77' 🔁 J. Shehu ◂ K. Asllani

77' 🔁 A. Mehmeti ◂ S. Pilios

80' A. Mehmeti · Argument

80' M. Uzuni · Simulation

81' R. Maran · Argument

82' 🔁 O. Valakari ◂ L. Walta

89' 🔁 M. Peltola ◂ A. Markhiev

Full-time · 2–1

Coaches

Jacob Friis

Rolando Maran

Recent form

Finland

DHBelarus0-0

WASan Marino7-0

LAHungary1-2

LAGermany0-4

WHAndorra4-0

Albania

WASan Marino3-0

WHBelarus2-0

LHLuxembourg0-1

LHIsrael0-1

LAUkraine0-1

About this match

**Finland's bouncing back after a rough loss to Hungary, and they'll fancy their chances against a struggling Albania side at the Olympic Stadium.** Both teams need a confidence boost in this Nations League grind, but the hosts have the edge. 🏟️

Finland's shown they can turn up—that 7-0 demolition of San Marino is no joke—but the 1-2 defeat to Hungary stung. Albania won their last two but dropped one at home to Luxembourg, which is the kind of slip-up that haunts you in qualifying windows.

Key storylines:

- **J. Pohjanpalo** and **O. Antman** lead Finland's attack at home; they'll want to impose early and make it uncomfortable for Albania's back line
- **K. Asllani** and **Y. Ramadani** are the engines for Albania's midfield—disrupt them and the visitors could fall apart
- Finland's strength is their ability to grind out results at the Olympic Stadium; Albania's travels badly and lost to Luxembourg at home, a warning sign

Expected lineups:

- **Finland**: L. Hrádecký, J. Lähteenmäki, V. Koski, T. Miettinen, N. Alho, K. Kairinen, L. Walta, A. Markhiev, T. Keskinen, J. Pohjanpalo, O. Antman
- **Albania**: T. Strakosha, M. Mitaj, B. Djimsiti, A. Ismajli, E. Hysaj, K. Asllani, J. Shehu, Y. Ramadani, A. Hoxha, R. Manaj, M. Uzuni

Prediction:

**Finland 2-0 Albania.** Hosts lean on home advantage and form to seal three points. 🎯

Where to watch

Klani IMSuperSport 2 AlbaniaTV Klan

Match facts

Stadium

Helsinki Olympic Stadium

City

Helsinki

Referee

Robert Hennessy

5.06 yellows/match · 16 matches

Kickoff

03 Oct, 13:00 UTC

Competition

UEFA Nations League

Highlights & clips

Finland 4-3-3 · 3-4-3 Albania

1 L. Hrádecký 7.1 3 A. Stahl 6.4 15 L. Väisänen 7.0 ↑ 62' 5 S. Miettinen 6.6 13 J. Lähteenmäki 6.8 6 G. Kamara 7.0 ↑ 46' 2 M. Peltola 6.7 ↑ 89' 8 O. Valakari 6.6 ↑ 82' 9 A. Svanbäck 6.6 20 J. Pohjanpalo 6.5 21 O. Jukkola 6.8 ↑ 62' 1 E. Berisha 3.0 6 B. Djimsiti 7.6 18 A. Ismajli 6.6 3 M. Mitaj 6.9 4 E. Hysaj 7.0 20 Y. Ramadani 6.7 16 J. Shehu 6.6 ↑ 77' 9 A. Mehmeti 6.5 ↑ 77' 11 M. Uzuni 6.4 ↑ 65' 19 M. Daku 6.6 ↑ 46' 12 A. Sherri 6.2 ↑ 25'

Top stats

60%Possession40%

0.56Expected goals (xG)1.15

11Total shots14

3Shots on target5

0Big chances1

7Corners6

Shots

4Shots off target6

4Blocked shots3

3Shots inside box12

8Shots outside box2

0Big chances missed1

0.65Goals prevented-1.62

Attack

17Touches in box24

76Final third entries35

1Offsides3

10Free kicks13

4Fouled in final third2

Passing

605Passes397

543Accurate passes334

10/27 (37%)Long balls34/63 (54%)

5/29 (17%)Crosses4/17 (24%)

16Throw-ins14

Duels

49Duels51

26/49 (53%)Ground duels23/49 (47%)

7/19 (37%)Aerial duels12/19 (63%)

4/8 (50%)Dribbles3/8 (38%)

3Dispossessed8

Defending

13Tackles7

46Tackles won71

10Interceptions8

20Clearances36

41Recoveries37

Discipline

13Fouls10

1Yellow cards4

0Red cards1

Goalkeeping

4Saves1

5Goal kicks7

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Finland 39%

30%

Albania 30%

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 61% · 1.11 @ William Hill

Who winsAlbania to win (DNB) 52% · 2.20 @ 888Sport

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 80% · 1.22 @ Bet365

BTTSBTTS: No 54% · 1.22 @ Bet365

1X2Draw 30% · 2.25 @ Bet365

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 70% · 1.26 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 58% · 1.53 @ Pinnacle

1X2Albania to win 30% · 3.55 @ 1xBet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 54% · 1.89 @ Pinnacle

1X2Finland to win 39% · 2.80 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 65% · 2.68 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.37

Finland

3.10

Draw

3.10

Albania

Double Chanceconsensus

1.33

Finland or Draw

1.33

Finland or Albania

1.56

Draw or Albania

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

2.05

Yes

1.70

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

3.60

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

4.80

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.06

Over 0.50

8.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.44

Over 1.50

2.67

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

2.40

Over 2.50

1.53

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

4.92

Over 3.50

1.17

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

10.50

Over 4.50

1.03

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.65

Finland

2.15

Albania

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.48

Over 7.50

2.40

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.88

Over 8.50

1.89

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.35

Over 9.50

1.50

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.93

Over 10.50

1.26

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

3.89

Over 11.50

1.14

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

Under 3.5 goals

✓

80% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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