Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedTap a player for their full match card.
**These sides know each other way too well** — they've drawn twice in a row, and this third meeting screams "deadlock incoming" with both teams in identical 5-4-1 setups. 🔒
**Azerbaijan** are riding two wins in their last five, but they've dropped points to **Lithuania** twice already this window. **Lithuania** actually look sharper in form (3W in their last 5), and they're the ones who've been putting goals past decent defenses.
Key storylines:
- **Azerbaijan** playing at home in Baku where they beat Tajikistan, but that same venue didn't stop **Lithuania** from scraping a draw on the road
- **Lithuania's** attack (led by **A. Kučys** and **A. Lickunas**) has momentum; they hammered Andorra 3-0 just before the first Azerbaijan clash
- Both defenses locked down tight in round 2 (1-1); expect another cagey affair with set-piece opportunities the main threat
Expected lineups:
- **Azerbaijan**: E. Balayev, A. Kryvotsiuk, E. Badalov, T. Bayramov, R. Abbasov, T. Mutallimov, A. Khaybulaev, E. Mahmudov, A. Isayev, R. Abdullazada, M. Emreli
- **Lithuania**: D. Bartkus, A. Tutyškinas, V. Armalas, E. Utkus, J. Lasickas, A. Dolznikov, L. Michelbrink, G. Gineitis, M. Vorobjovas, A. Lickunas, A. Kučys
Prediction:
**1-1 draw.** These teams have found their level twice already — expect the same script. 📋
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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