Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
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Craig Bellamy
Wales
Denmark**Denmark's road fortress meets Wales' home hopes** — but the Danes arrive as clear favorites after absolutely schooling the Welsh just days ago in Copenhagen. 🔴
Wales scraped a 2-1 win over Norway to spark some life, but form is messy: three losses in the last five. Denmark are wobblier than their record suggests (1W-2D-2L), yet own a brutal 4-1 head-to-head edge and just hammered Wales 2-0 at home. The rematch vibes are different though—this time it's in Cardiff.
Key storylines:
- **Wales need a reaction after the 2-0 shellacking**, but missing defenders I. Davies and N. Broadhead leaves the backline stretched
- **Denmark's depth gets tested** with A. Grønbæk, A. Bah, A. Christensen, K. Dolberg, and P. Dorgu all unavailable—that's a lot of muscle
- **P. Højbjerg and M. Hjulmand** anchor the Danish midfield, crucial for controlling pace against a desperate home crowd
Expected lineups:
- **Wales**: D. Ward, N. Williams, B. Davies, B. Cabango, C. Roberts, E. Ampadu, J. Sheehan, S. Thomas, H. Wilson, D. James, K. Moore
- **Denmark**: F. Jørgensen, J. Mæhle, J. Andersen, O. Provstgaard, R. Kristensen, P. Højbjerg, M. Hjulmand, M. Daramy, M. Damsgaard, G. Isaksen, R. Højlund
Prediction:
**Denmark 2–1 Wales**. Danes have the edge despite injuries—Wales scrappy but not enough. 📍
Wales
4-2-3-1 · 4-4-2
Denmark
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
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