France 4-1 Belgium: Stats, xG & Lineups – Oct 5, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. France 4-1 Belgium.

90+1'

M. Olise

Goal! France 4-1 Belgium. M. Olise (France) scores, assisted by D. Doué.

90'

3 minutes of added time.

88'

M. Olise

Goal! France 3-1 Belgium. M. Olise (France) scores, assisted by D. Doué.

88'

E. Camavinga

Substitution, France: A. Rabiot comes on for E. Camavinga.

87'

R. Lavia

Substitution, Belgium: M. Keita comes on for R. Lavia.

87'

D. Moreira

Substitution, Belgium: L. Openda comes on for D. Moreira.

87'

H. Vanaken

Substitution, Belgium: L. Trossard comes on for H. Vanaken.

85'

N. Ngoy

Attempt missed. N. Ngoy (Belgium), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.04.

85'

Belgium

Corner, Belgium.

81'

R. Cherki

Goal! France 2-1 Belgium. R. Cherki (France) scores, assisted by M. Olise.

77'

D. Doué

Goal! France 1-1 Belgium. D. Doué (France) scores, assisted by L. Da Cunha.

75'

J. Seys

Yellow card for J. Seys (Belgium) for foul.

73'

M. v. B.

Yellow card for M. v. B. (Belgium) for argument.

72'

B. Barcola

Attempt missed. B. Barcola (France), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

72'

B. Barcola

Substitution, France: D. Doué comes on for B. Barcola.

70'

D. Lukebakio

Substitution, Belgium: M. Godts comes on for D. Lukebakio.

70'

R. Lukaku

Substitution, Belgium: C. De Ketelaere comes on for R. Lukaku.

69'

M. Lacroix

Yellow card for M. Lacroix (France) for foul.

68'

France

Corner, France.

67'

R. Cherki

Attempt saved. R. Cherki (France), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

67'

France

Corner, France.

65'

M. Olise

Attempt blocked. M. Olise (France), left-footed shot. xG 0.09.

63'

M. Olise

Attempt saved. M. Olise (France), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.01.

62'

France

Corner, France.

61'

M. Koné

Substitution, France: L. Da Cunha comes on for M. Koné.

60'

O. Dembélé

Substitution, France: M. Olise comes on for O. Dembélé.

60'

M. Akliouche

Substitution, France: R. Cherki comes on for M. Akliouche.

59'

France

Corner, France.

57'

R. Lavia

Yellow card for R. Lavia (Belgium) for foul.

55'

J. Koundé

Attempt missed. J. Koundé (France), header. xG 0.03.

55'

M. Lacroix

Attempt missed. M. Lacroix (France), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

53'

M. Koné

Attempt blocked. M. Koné (France), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

53'

O. Dembélé

Attempt missed. O. Dembélé (France), left-footed shot. xG 0.11.

48'

M. Akliouche

Attempt blocked. M. Akliouche (France), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. France 0-1 Belgium.

45'

1 minute of added time.

43'

France

Corner, France.

42'

O. Dembélé

Attempt blocked. O. Dembélé (France), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

35'

D. Lukebakio

Goal! France 0-1 Belgium. D. Lukebakio (Belgium) scores, assisted by R. Lavia.

33'

E. Lepaul

Attempt missed. E. Lepaul (France), right-footed shot. xG 0.16.

32'

O. Dembélé

Attempt blocked. O. Dembélé (France), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

29'

D. Lukebakio

Attempt missed. D. Lukebakio (Belgium), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.04.

28'

Belgium

Corner, Belgium.

23'

E. Lepaul

Attempt saved. E. Lepaul (France), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

22'

N. Raskin

Attempt missed. N. Raskin (Belgium), header. xG 0.23.

20'

E. Camavinga

Attempt blocked. E. Camavinga (France), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

19'

Belgium

Offside, Belgium.

16'

France

Corner, France.

16'

B. Barcola

Attempt saved. B. Barcola (France), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

16'

France

Corner, France.

12'

France

Corner, France.

11'

R. Lukaku

Attempt saved. R. Lukaku (Belgium), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

9'

E. Lepaul

Attempt blocked. E. Lepaul (France), header. xG 0.14.

9'

France

Corner, France.

8'

France

Corner, France.

7'

O. Dembélé

Attempt blocked. O. Dembélé (France), right-footed shot. xG 0.01.

6'

M. Akliouche

Attempt blocked. M. Akliouche (France), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

1'

O. Dembélé

Attempt missed. O. Dembélé (France), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

1'

Kick-off: France vs Belgium.

Where the money is

6973717 EUR matched · captured 1 month, 1 week ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 5085727 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

62.6%

-36.4 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

32.2%

+32.0 vs price

Draw 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

5.2%

+5.1 vs price

Half time 28189 EUR · live

Home 60.0 · implied 1.7%

43.5%

+41.8 vs price

Away 1.22 · implied 82.0%

43.1%

-38.9 vs price

Draw 6.2 · implied 16.1%

13.5%

-2.7 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 495803 EUR · live

Under 2.0 · implied 50.0%

56.9%

+6.9 vs price

Over 2.02 · implied 49.5%

43.1%

-6.4 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 28767 EUR · live

Under 1.02 · implied 98.0%

96.0%

-2.0 vs price

Over 42.0 · implied 2.4%

4.0%

+1.6 vs price

19 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 4 clips

Player of the match

Match events

35' ⚽ D. Lukebakio · assist R. Lavia0–1

Half-time · 0–1

57' R. Lavia · Foul

60' 🔁 R. Cherki ◂ M. Akliouche

60' 🔁 M. Olise ◂ O. Dembélé

61' 🔁 L. Da Cunha ◂ M. Koné

69' M. Lacroix · Foul

70' 🔁 C. De Ketelaere ◂ R. Lukaku

70' 🔁 M. Godts ◂ D. Lukebakio

72' 🔁 D. Doué ◂ B. Barcola

73' M. v. B. · Argument

75' J. Seys · Foul

77' ⚽ D. Doué · assist L. Da Cunha1–1

81' ⚽ R. Cherki · assist M. Olise2–1

87' 🔁 L. Trossard ◂ H. Vanaken

87' 🔁 L. Openda ◂ D. Moreira

87' 🔁 M. Keita ◂ R. Lavia

88' ⚽ M. Olise · assist D. Doué3–1

88' 🔁 A. Rabiot ◂ E. Camavinga

Full-time · 4–1

90'⁺¹ ⚽ M. Olise · assist D. Doué4–1

Coaches

Zinédine Zidane

Mark van Bommel

Recent form

France

DHItaly1-1

WABelgium1-0

WATürkiye1-0

LHEngland4-6

LHSpain0-2

Belgium

WHTürkiye3-0

LHFrance0-1

WAItaly2-0

LASpain1-2

WAUSA4-1

About this match

**France's looking to complete the double over Belgium**, and they're hosting this Nations League clash at the Stade de France — but missing a *brutal* injury list that includes Mbappé and Zaïre-Emery. Belgium just hammered Türkiye 3-0 at home, so they're clicking right now. 🔥

France sit on 2W-1D-2L form; Belgium are 3W-0D-2L. The head-to-head is a total mismatch (France 9 wins, Belgium 1 in 12), though Les Bleus' recent win in Brussels shows they can't take this for granted even without their stars.

Key storylines:

- **France's attack is undermanned** without Mbappé and Mateta, leaning hard on young wing talent like R. Cherki and B. Barcola to carry the load
- **Courtois anchoring Belgium's shape** — T. Courtois has had solid form, and the Belgians won't roll over after their 3-0 thrashing of Türkiye
- **Rabiot and Koné's midfield** will need to control tempo and protect a France back line missing key depth with Saliba out

Expected lineups:

- **France**: M. Maignan, L. Digne, D. Upamecano, M. Lacroix, J. Koundé, A. Rabiot, M. Koné, B. Barcola, R. Cherki, M. Olise, O. Dembélé
- **Belgium**: T. Courtois, M. De Cuyper, B. Mechele, N. Ngoy, T. Castagne, Y. Tielemans, N. Raskin, L. Trossard, C. De Ketelaere, D. Lukebakio, R. Lukaku

Prediction:

**France 2–1 Belgium** — home advantage and that brutal H2H record should tell, but Belgium's form keeps this tight. 🇫🇷

Where to watch

DStv NowSuperSport MaximoSuperSport Maximo 2SuperSport Premier League

Match facts

Stadium

Stade de France

City

Paris

Referee

Nick Walsh

4.10 yellows/match · 67 matches

Kickoff

05 Oct, 18:45 UTC

Competition

UEFA Nations League

Highlights & clips

France 4-3-3 · 4-3-3 Belgium

1 G. Restes 6.2 5 J. Koundé 6.8 15 L. Yoro 7.9 17 M. Lacroix 6.6 13 A. Diouf 6.8 9 R. Cherki 8.1 ↑ 60' 14 A. Rabiot ↑ 88' 21 L. Da Cunha 7.0 ↑ 61' 11 M. Olise 10.0 ↑ 60' 19 E. Lepaul 6.4 20 D. Doué 8.9 ↑ 72' 12 M. Vandevoordt 4.6 21 T. Castagne 6.3 15 N. Ngoy 5.9 4 B. Mechele 7.2 18 J. Seys 5.9 23 N. Raskin 6.4 8 M. Keita ↑ 87' 10 L. Trossard ↑ 87' 7 M. Godts 6.9 ↑ 70' 17 C. De Ketelaere 6.6 ↑ 70' 11 L. Openda ↑ 87'

Substitutes

16GM. Maignan 23GJ. Butez 2DP. Kalulu 3DA. Truffert 8MM. Koné↓ 61'7.1 6ME. Camavinga↓ 88'7.0 18MM. Akliouche↓ 60'6.6 7FO. Dembélé↓ 60'7.9 12FB. Barcola↓ 72'6.7

Coach: Zinédine Zidane

Substitutes

1GS. Lammens 13GM. Penders 2DZ. Debast 3DA. Theate 5DM. De Cuyper 16DK. Sabbe 14MD. Lukebakio↓ 70'8.2 6MR. Lavia↓ 87'7.1 20MH. Vanaken↓ 87'6.7 19MD. Moreira↓ 87'6.6 9FR. Lukaku↓ 70'6.8 22FM. Fernández-Pardo

Coach: Mark van Bommel

Top stats

66%Possession34%

2.0Expected goals (xG)0.59

23Total shots5

8Shots on target2

3Big chances1

9Corners2

Shots

6Shots off target3

9Blocked shots0

14Shots inside box3

9Shots outside box2

3Big chances scored1

-0.24Goals prevented-2.22

Attack

76Touches in box8

75Final third entries36

0Offsides1

8Free kicks4

1Fouled in final third1

Passing

692Passes363

625Accurate passes287

24/39 (62%)Long balls26/62 (42%)

1/28 (4%)Crosses2/10 (20%)

11Throw-ins9

Duels

48Duels52

28/63 (44%)Ground duels35/63 (56%)

10/16 (63%)Aerial duels6/16 (38%)

4/18 (22%)Dribbles10/17 (59%)

7Dispossessed9

Defending

16Tackles21

50Tackles won38

12Interceptions7

14Clearances33

53Recoveries46

Discipline

4Fouls8

1Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

1Saves5

0Big saves1

5Goal kicks11

0Punches1

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

France 63%

20%

Belgium 16%

1X2France to win 63% · 1.91 @ William Hill

Who winsBelgium to win (DNB) 59% · 4.75 @ 10bet

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 63% · 3.30 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 83% · 1.75 @ William Hill

BTTSBoth teams to score 57% · 2.80 @ William Hill

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 68% · 1.44 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 56% · 1.80 @ 1xBet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 55% · 1.61 @ Pinnacle

1X2Draw 20% · 3.05 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 60% · 1.70 @ 1xBet

1X2Belgium to win 16% · 5.15 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.50

France

4.60

Draw

5.75

Belgium

Double Chanceconsensus

1.14

France or Draw

1.16

France or Belgium

2.54

Draw or Belgium

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.67

Yes

2.10

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

2.90

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

12.00

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

18.50

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.13

Over 1.50

5.75

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.47

Over 2.50

2.60

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.25

Over 3.50

1.65

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

3.80

Over 4.50

1.25

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.18

France

4.50

Belgium

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.32

Over 7.50

2.85

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.60

Over 8.50

2.20

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.02

Over 9.50

1.78

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.57

Over 10.50

1.42

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

3.41

Over 11.50

1.23

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

France to win or draw

✓

84% confidence

Over 1.5 goals

✓

83% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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