Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-0 Poland: Stats & xG – Oct 5, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-0 Poland.

90+2'

I. Bašić

Attempt blocked. I. Bašić (Bosnia & Herzegovina), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.05.

90+2'

I. Bašić

Attempt blocked. I. Bašić (Bosnia & Herzegovina), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.02.

90+1'

N. Wojtuszek

Yellow card for N. Wojtuszek (Poland) for foul.

90'

7 minutes of added time.

90'

Poland

Offside, Poland.

89'

W. Nowak

Substitution, Poland: K. Urbański comes on for W. Nowak.

89'

M. Żukowski

Substitution, Poland: O. Pietuszewski comes on for M. Żukowski.

89'

A. Gigović

Substitution, Bosnia & Herzegovina: S. Radeljić comes on for A. Gigović.

87'

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Offside, Bosnia & Herzegovina.

86'

P. Zieliński

Attempt missed. P. Zieliński (Poland), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.

86'

Poland

Corner, Poland.

84'

I. Bašić

Goal! Bosnia & Herzegovina 1-0 Poland. I. Bašić (Bosnia & Herzegovina) converts the penalty.

83'

J. Bednarek

Yellow card for J. Bednarek (Poland) for foul.

83'

J. Lukić

VAR: no penalty for Bosnia & Herzegovina.

78'

H. Tabaković

Substitution, Bosnia & Herzegovina: S. Baždar comes on for H. Tabaković.

78'

E. Demirović

Substitution, Bosnia & Herzegovina: J. Lukić comes on for E. Demirović.

78'

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Offside, Bosnia & Herzegovina.

76'

E. Demirović

VAR: no penalty for Bosnia & Herzegovina.

76'

N. Katić

Yellow card for N. Katić (Bosnia & Herzegovina) for argument.

74'

M. Żukowski

Attempt missed. M. Żukowski (Poland), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

73'

J. Kiwior

Attempt blocked. J. Kiwior (Poland), header from a corner. xG 0.03.

72'

Poland

Corner, Poland.

72'

M. Żukowski

Attempt blocked. M. Żukowski (Poland), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

72'

Poland

Corner, Poland.

70'

Poland

Corner, Poland.

70'

P. Frankowski

Attempt blocked. P. Frankowski (Poland), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

67'

B. Tahirović

Attempt missed. B. Tahirović (Bosnia & Herzegovina), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

63'

M. Cash

Substitution, Poland: N. Wojtuszek comes on for M. Cash.

63'

K. Świderski

Substitution, Poland: M. Regula comes on for K. Świderski.

63'

Z. Smajlović

Substitution, Bosnia & Herzegovina: E. Bajraktarević comes on for Z. Smajlović.

63'

E. Mahmić

Substitution, Bosnia & Herzegovina: B. Tahirović comes on for E. Mahmić.

54'

P. Frankowski

Attempt missed. P. Frankowski (Poland), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.04.

53'

Poland

Corner, Poland.

51'

K. Świderski

Attempt missed. K. Świderski (Poland), header. xG 0.07.

50'

P. Zieliński

Attempt blocked. P. Zieliński (Poland), left-footed shot. xG 0.11.

49'

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Offside, Bosnia & Herzegovina.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Bosnia & Herzegovina 0-0 Poland.

45+1'

P. Zieliński

Attempt missed. P. Zieliński (Poland), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

45+1'

P. Frankowski

Attempt blocked. P. Frankowski (Poland), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

45'

1 minute of added time.

45'

K. Świderski

Attempt saved. K. Świderski (Poland), left-footed shot. xG 0.51.

45'

S. Szymański

Cleared off the line! S. Szymański (Poland), right-footed shot. xG 0.17.

43'

W. Nowak

Attempt saved. W. Nowak (Poland), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.13.

42'

E. Demirović

Yellow card for E. Demirović (Bosnia & Herzegovina) for argument.

39'

E. Mahmić

Attempt missed. E. Mahmić (Bosnia & Herzegovina), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.04.

38'

N. Zalewski

Yellow card for N. Zalewski (Poland) for foul.

32'

A. Gigović

Yellow card for A. Gigović (Bosnia & Herzegovina) for foul.

27'

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Corner, Bosnia & Herzegovina.

26'

P. Frankowski

Attempt saved. P. Frankowski (Poland), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

24'

T. Muharemović

Attempt missed. T. Muharemović (Bosnia & Herzegovina), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.03.

21'

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Offside, Bosnia & Herzegovina.

18'

Poland

Corner, Poland.

16'

Poland

Corner, Poland.

16'

J. Bednarek

Attempt missed. J. Bednarek (Poland), header from a corner. xG 0.04.

15'

Z. Smajlović

Attempt missed. Z. Smajlović (Bosnia & Herzegovina), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

8'

J. Kiwior

Attempt blocked. J. Kiwior (Poland), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.15.

8'

M. Żukowski

Attempt blocked. M. Żukowski (Poland), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.01.

8'

Poland

Corner, Poland.

7'

M. Cash

Attempt missed. M. Cash (Poland), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

3'

E. Demirović

Attempt blocked. E. Demirović (Bosnia & Herzegovina), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

3'

Bosnia & Herzegovina

Corner, Bosnia & Herzegovina.

2'

S. Kolašinac

Attempt blocked. S. Kolašinac (Bosnia & Herzegovina), left-footed shot. xG 0.17.

1'

Kick-off: Bosnia & Herzegovina vs Poland.

Where the money is

1071681 EUR matched · captured 1 month ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 555390 EUR · live

Home 1.02 · implied 98.0%

41.3%

-56.8 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

40.7%

+40.6 vs price

Draw 38.0 · implied 2.6%

18.6%

+15.9 vs price

Half time 4909 EUR · live

Draw 1.02 · implied 98.0%

82.6%

-15.5 vs price

Home 32.0 · implied 3.1%

12.6%

+9.5 vs price

Away 300.0 · implied 0.3%

4.8%

+4.4 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 95127 EUR · live

Under 1.01 · implied 99.0%

80.3%

-18.7 vs price

Over 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

19.7%

+19.6 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 4131 EUR · live

Under 1.01 · implied 99.0%

91.7%

-7.4 vs price

Over 110.0 · implied 0.9%

8.3%

+7.4 vs price

17 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 3 clips

Player of the match

Match events

32' A. Gigović · Foul

38' N. Zalewski · Foul

42' E. Demirović · Argument

Half-time · 0–0

63' 🔁 B. Tahirović ◂ E. Mahmić

63' 🔁 E. Bajraktarević ◂ Z. Smajlović

63' 🔁 M. Regula ◂ K. Świderski

63' 🔁 N. Wojtuszek ◂ M. Cash

76' N. Katić · Argument

76' VAR Penalty check · E. Demirović

78' 🔁 J. Lukić ◂ E. Demirović

78' 🔁 S. Baždar ◂ H. Tabaković

83' J. Bednarek · Foul

83' VAR No penalty · J. Lukić

84' ⚽ I. Bašić (pen)1–0

89' 🔁 S. Radeljić ◂ A. Gigović

89' 🔁 O. Pietuszewski ◂ M. Żukowski

89' 🔁 K. Urbański ◂ W. Nowak

Full-time · 1–0

90'⁺¹ N. Wojtuszek · Foul

Coaches

Sergej Barbarez

Jan Urban

Recent form

Bosnia & Herzegovina

DHSweden1-1

WARomania4-2

DAPoland0-0

LAUSA0-2

WHQatar3-1

Poland

WHRomania6-0

LASweden1-3

DHBosnia & Herzegovina0-0

DHNigeria2-2

LHUkraine0-2

About this match

**Bosnia's home turf could be the difference** — Poland are reeling from injuries and inconsistency, while the hosts have found some teeth at Bilino Polje lately. 🏟️

Bosnia sit 2W-2D-1L over their last five; Poland's record is shakier at 1W-2D-2L. The first meeting this campaign was a forgettable 0-0 stalemate, but Bosnia showed more bite in Romania (4-2 away). Poland's attack is hamstrung without key personnel and just got thumped 3-1 in Sweden.

Key storylines:

- **E. Džeko** leading the line at home with **E. Demirović** — Bosnia's attacking pair have chemistry on home soil
- **R. Lewandowski** and **M. Skóraś** tasked with carrying a depleted Poland forward line missing four first-team options
- **S. Kolašinac** anchoring Bosnia's left flank against a creaky visiting midfield

Expected lineups:

- **Bosnia & Herzegovina**: N. Vasilj, S. Kolašinac, N. Katić, T. Muharemović, A. Dedić, K. Alajbegović, I. Bašić, B. Tahirović, A. Memić, E. Demirović, E. Džeko
- **Poland**: M. Bułka, J. Kiwior, J. Bednarek, P. Wiśniewski, N. Zalewski, M. Cash, P. Zieliński, B. Slisz, O. Pietuszewski, R. Lewandowski, M. Skóraś

Prediction:

**Bosnia 2-1 Poland.** Home edge, injury crisis, and recent form all lean Bosnia's way. 📍

Where to watch

DStv NowSuperSport Action

Match facts

Stadium

Bilino Polje

City

Zenica

Referee

Jeremie Pignard

4.12 yellows/match · 43 matches

Kickoff

05 Oct, 18:45 UTC

Competition

UEFA Nations League

Highlights & clips

Bosnia & Herzegovina 4-4-2 · 4-1-4-1 Poland

22 M. Zlomislić 7.8 6 B. Tahirović 6.6 ↑ 63' 18 N. Katić 7.9 4 T. Muharemović 7.8 5 S. Kolašinac 6.6 15 A. Memić 7.1 21 S. Radeljić 6.8 ↑ 89' 13 I. Bašić 8.0 11 E. Bajraktarević 6.6 ↑ 63' 9 S. Baždar 6.3 ↑ 78' 19 J. Lukić 7.1 ↑ 78' 1 M. Bułka 6.5 13 N. Wojtuszek 6.4 ↑ 63' 5 J. Bednarek 6.2 14 J. Kiwior 7.3 19 P. Frankowski 7.1 8 K. Urbański 6.6 ↑ 89' 18 M. Regula 6.3 ↑ 63' 20 S. Szymański 7.0 10 P. Zieliński 6.8 21 N. Zalewski 6.7 7 O. Pietuszewski 6.6 ↑ 89'

Top stats

44%Possession56%

1.17Expected goals (xG)1.57

9Total shots18

1Shots on target4

1Big chances2

2Corners8

Shots

4Shots off target7

4Blocked shots7

5Shots inside box10

4Shots outside box8

1Big chances scored0

0Big chances missed2

0.83Goals prevented-0.01

Attack

22Touches in box27

51Final third entries49

4Offsides1

6Free kicks12

3Fouled in final third1

Passing

359Passes443

303Accurate passes374

20/44 (45%)Long balls28/49 (57%)

5/17 (29%)Crosses5/21 (24%)

12Throw-ins27

Duels

46Duels54

23/51 (45%)Ground duels28/51 (55%)

7/14 (50%)Aerial duels7/14 (50%)

6/13 (46%)Dribbles5/12 (42%)

6Dispossessed3

Defending

10Tackles13

80Tackles won77

13Interceptions10

34Clearances24

42Recoveries34

Discipline

12Fouls7

3Yellow cards3

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

9Goal kicks7

1Punches1

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Bosnia & Herzegovina 32%

28%

Poland 40%

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 76% · 1.25 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 8.5 corners 52% · 1.84 @ 1xBet

1X2Poland to win 40% · 2.70 @ William Hill

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 64% · 1.51 @ Pinnacle

BTTSBoth teams to score 55% · 3.25 @ Bet365

1X2Draw 28% · 2.50 @ Bet365

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 72% · 1.38 @ Pinnacle

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 50% · 4.65 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 74% · 2.16 @ 1xBet

Who winsBosnia & Herzegovina to win (DNB) 54% · 2.15 @ Betsson

1X2Bosnia & Herzegovina to win 32% · 3.30 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.90

Bosnia & Herzegovina

3.40

Draw

2.37

Poland

Double Chanceconsensus

1.57

Bosnia & Herzegovina or Draw

1.30

Bosnia & Herzegovina or Poland

1.36

Draw or Poland

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.73

Yes

2.00

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

5.00

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

4.00

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.03

Over 0.50

11.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.27

Over 1.50

3.62

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.89

Over 2.50

1.94

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

3.20

Over 3.50

1.33

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

6.23

Over 4.50

1.09

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

2.08

Bosnia & Herzegovina

1.68

Poland

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.57

Over 7.50

2.30

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

2.00

Over 8.50

1.83

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.55

Over 9.50

1.46

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

3.45

Over 10.50

1.23

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

4.99

Over 11.50

1.10

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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