Belarus 1-0 Finland: Stats, xG & Lineups – Oct 6, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Belarus 1-0 Finland.

90+2'

S. Miettinen

Yellow card for S. Miettinen (Finland) for foul.

90'

2 minutes of added time.

87'

J. Pohjanpalo

Attempt missed. J. Pohjanpalo (Finland), header. xG 0.06.

85'

A. Markhiev

Attempt missed. A. Markhiev (Finland), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.01.

85'

A. Markhiev

Attempt missed. A. Markhiev (Finland), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.02.

84'

A. Selyava

Substitution, Belarus: E. Yablonskiy comes on for A. Selyava.

83'

K. Pechenin

Yellow card for K. Pechenin (Belarus) for foul.

81'

S. Väänänen

Attempt blocked. S. Väänänen (Finland), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

80'

T. Melnichenko

Attempt missed. T. Melnichenko (Belarus), header from a corner. xG 0.04.

80'

Belarus

Corner, Belarus.

79'

K. Pechenin

Attempt blocked. K. Pechenin (Belarus), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.06.

79'

O. Jukkola

Attempt saved. O. Jukkola (Finland), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

75'

B. Källman

Yellow card for B. Källman (Finland) for foul.

74'

R. Mahuta

Substitution, Finland: D. Håkans comes on for R. Mahuta.

70'

Finland

Corner, Finland.

68'

O. Jukkola

Attempt blocked. O. Jukkola (Finland), header from a set piece. xG 0.02.

67'

M. Peltola

Substitution, Finland: S. Väänänen comes on for M. Peltola.

67'

J. Lähteenmäki

Substitution, Finland: B. Källman comes on for J. Lähteenmäki.

66'

L. Walta

Attempt blocked. L. Walta (Finland), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

65'

T. Keskinen

Attempt blocked. T. Keskinen (Finland), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

62'

G. Barkovskiy

Substitution, Belarus: T. Melnichenko comes on for G. Barkovskiy.

58'

A. Svanbäck

Substitution, Finland: J. Pohjanpalo comes on for A. Svanbäck.

58'

O. Valakari

Substitution, Finland: O. Jukkola comes on for O. Valakari.

57'

T. Keskinen

Attempt blocked. T. Keskinen (Finland), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

53'

T. Keskinen

Attempt missed. T. Keskinen (Finland), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

47'

M. Ebong

Attempt blocked. M. Ebong (Belarus), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

46'

V. Bocherov

Substitution, Belarus: V. Lisakovich comes on for V. Bocherov.

46'

A. Shumansky

Substitution, Belarus: A. Kovalev comes on for A. Shumansky.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Belarus 1-0 Finland.

45'

2 minutes of added time.

38'

V. Bocherov

Yellow card for V. Bocherov (Belarus) for foul.

29'

Finland

Corner, Finland.

27'

A. Shumansky

Yellow card for A. Shumansky (Belarus) for time wasting.

27'

G. Barkovskiy

Yellow card for G. Barkovskiy (Belarus) for argument.

19'

L. Walta

Attempt blocked. L. Walta (Finland), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.04.

18'

M. Tenho

Attempt missed. M. Tenho (Finland), header from a corner. xG 0.07.

18'

A. Svanbäck

Off the woodwork! A. Svanbäck (Finland), header from a corner. xG 0.13.

17'

Finland

Corner, Finland.

16'

Belarus

Offside, Belarus.

15'

Z. Volkov

Penalty missed! Z. Volkov (Belarus), saved.

13'

Finland

Corner, Finland.

11'

M. Ebong

Attempt blocked. M. Ebong (Belarus), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

9'

M. Peltola

Attempt saved. M. Peltola (Finland), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

6'

Finland

Corner, Finland.

3'

Belarus

Corner, Belarus.

2'

Finland

Offside, Finland.

1'

A. Shumansky

Goal! Belarus 1-0 Finland. A. Shumansky (Belarus) scores.

1'

Kick-off: Belarus vs Finland.

Where the money is

673551 EUR matched · captured 1 month, 1 week ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 406240 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

44.4%

-54.6 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

31.8%

+31.6 vs price

Draw 27.0 · implied 3.7%

23.8%

+20.1 vs price

Half time 2203 EUR · live

Draw 8.4 · implied 11.9%

48.0%

+36.1 vs price

Home 1.14 · implied 87.7%

27.9%

-59.8 vs price

Away 120.0 · implied 0.8%

24.1%

+23.2 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 106916 EUR · live

Under 1.01 · implied 99.0%

64.1%

-34.9 vs price

Over 50.0 · implied 2.0%

36.2%

+34.2 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 1139 EUR · live

Under 1.01 · implied 99.0%

88.6%

-10.4 vs price

Over 21.0 · implied 4.8%

11.3%

+6.6 vs price

15 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

1' ⚽ A. Shumansky1–0

15' 🚫 Penalty missed · Z. Volkov

27' G. Barkovskiy · Argument

27' A. Shumansky · Time wasting

38' V. Bocherov · Foul

Half-time · 1–0

46' 🔁 A. Kovalev ◂ A. Shumansky

46' 🔁 V. Lisakovich ◂ V. Bocherov

58' 🔁 O. Jukkola ◂ O. Valakari

58' 🔁 J. Pohjanpalo ◂ A. Svanbäck

62' 🔁 T. Melnichenko ◂ G. Barkovskiy

67' 🔁 B. Källman ◂ J. Lähteenmäki

67' 🔁 S. Väänänen ◂ M. Peltola

74' 🔁 D. Håkans ◂ R. Mahuta

75' B. Källman · Foul

83' K. Pechenin · Foul

84' 🔁 E. Yablonskiy ◂ A. Selyava

Full-time · 1–0

90'⁺² S. Miettinen · Foul

Coaches

Viktor Gancharenko

Jacob Friis

Recent form

Belarus

WHSan Marino4-0

DAFinland0-0

LAAlbania0-2

DHBurkina Faso2-2

WHSyria4-1

Finland

WHAlbania2-1

DHBelarus0-0

WASan Marino7-0

LAHungary1-2

LAGermany0-4

About this match

**Both teams are coming off a draw** — the exact same scoreline when they met just days ago — so this rematch feels like a genuine toss-up with revenge energy on tap. 🔄

Belarus mixed it up with a win and two losses in their last run, while **Finland hit 7 past San Marino but then flatlined** against tougher competition. Head-to-head, neither side has dominated: two draws and a Finland win apiece in recent memory.

Key storylines:

- **Belarus need to breakthrough** after blanking Finland away; their 4-0 demolition of San Marino shows they've got firepower when it clicks
- **Finland's defense has some cracks** — conceding 2 to Albania and drawing 0-0 at home suggests vulnerability on the road
- **J. Pohjanpalo** will be Finland's main outlet up top, with K. Kairinen and B. Källman flanking to stretch the Belarus backline

Expected lineups:

- **Belarus**: F. Lapoukhov, K. Pechenin, Z. Volkov, V. Kalinin, K. Gomanov, M. Ebong, V. Gromyko, G. Barkovskiy, E. Yablonskiy
- **Finland**: L. Hrádecký, T. Miettinen, A. Stahl, S. Miettinen, R. Mahuta, L. Walta, A. Markhiev, J. Pohjanpalo

Prediction:

**1-1** — both sides have just enough grit to snatch a goal but not enough finish to seal it; expect another stalemate theater. 🎭

Where to watch

DStv Now

Match facts

Stadium

Stadion Rudolf Illovszky

City

Budapest

Referee

Sascha Stegemann

3.59 yellows/match · 56 matches

Kickoff

06 Oct, 18:45 UTC

Competition

UEFA Nations League

Highlights & clips

Belarus 4-2-3-1 · 4-3-3 Finland

21 F. Lapoukhov 7.3 5 V. Kalinin 6.5 20 Z. Volkov 7.7 13 K. Gomanov 7.2 2 K. Pechenin 7.9 16 A. Kovalev 6.5 ↑ 46' 14 E. Yablonskiy 6.6 ↑ 84' 19 A. Lukashov 6.5 9 M. Ebong 6.7 17 V. Lisakovich 6.3 ↑ 46' 23 T. Melnichenko 6.6 ↑ 62' 1 L. Hrádecký 7.3 7 S. Väänänen 6.7 ↑ 67' 15 M. Tenho 7.3 5 S. Miettinen 7.0 22 D. Håkans 6.6 ↑ 74' 19 B. Källman 6.1 ↑ 67' 11 A. Markhiev 7.8 10 L. Walta 7.0 14 O. Jukkola 6.7 ↑ 58' 18 T. Keskinen 6.5 20 J. Pohjanpalo 6.5 ↑ 58'

Top stats

26%Possession74%

1.02Expected goals (xG)0.65

6Total shots14

2Shots on target2

1Big chances1

1Corners5

Shots

1Shots off target6

3Blocked shots6

2Shots inside box8

4Shots outside box6

0Hit woodwork1

1Big chances missed1

0.47Goals prevented0.23

Attack

7Touches in box25

56Final third entries65

1Offsides1

10Free kicks17

2Fouled in final third3

Passing

228Passes644

147Accurate passes563

24/57 (42%)Long balls20/40 (50%)

3/14 (21%)Crosses4/33 (12%)

26Throw-ins26

Duels

45Duels55

29/64 (45%)Ground duels35/64 (55%)

14/31 (45%)Aerial duels17/31 (55%)

5/14 (36%)Dribbles7/13 (54%)

3Dispossessed7

Defending

13Tackles12

54Tackles won75

14Interceptions5

39Clearances28

45Recoveries39

Discipline

17Fouls11

4Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

6Goal kicks2

1Punches0

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Belarus 23%

29%

Finland 48%

1X2Finland to win 48% · 2.40 @ William Hill

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 61% · 1.11 @ William Hill

Who winsFinland to win (DNB) 50% · 1.40 @ Unibet

BTTSBTTS: No 56% · 1.20 @ Bet365

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 79% · 1.18 @ Pinnacle

1X2Draw 29% · 2.26 @ 1xBet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 58% · 1.64 @ Pinnacle

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 66% · 1.47 @ Pinnacle

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 54% · 1.76 @ Pinnacle

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 65% · 2.65 @ 1xBet

1X2Belarus to win 23% · 4.50 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

4.20

Belarus

3.20

Draw

1.95

Finland

Double Chanceconsensus

1.80

Belarus or Draw

1.30

Belarus or Finland

1.22

Draw or Finland

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

2.20

Yes

1.62

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

5.80

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

3.10

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.06

Over 0.50

7.55

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.46

Over 1.50

2.62

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

2.40

Over 2.50

1.53

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

4.92

Over 3.50

1.15

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

11.00

Over 4.50

1.02

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

2.95

Belarus

1.36

Finland

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.32

Over 7.50

2.80

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.62

Over 8.50

2.17

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.00

Over 9.50

1.73

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.52

Over 10.50

1.44

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

3.17

Over 11.50

1.22

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.3%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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