Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Northern Ireland's home fortress meets a wounded Ukraine side in a Nations League clash where recent history heavily favors the hosts.** 🏴 Shades of that 3-0 demolition in Kyiv loom large — Ukraine come to Windsor Park fresh off a 1-2 home loss to Hungary, while the Irish have steadied the ship with two wins in their last five.
**Northern Ireland** are riding momentum on their own patch and have the head-to-head edge in this rivalry. **Ukraine** arrive without key attacking depth — Zubkov (broken leg) and Tsygankov (unknown) are both absent, leaving the forward line stretched thin.
Key storylines:
- **Northern Ireland's home form** is the real story here: unbeaten in recent fixtures at Windsor Park, they've got confidence and familiarity working for them.
- **Sudakov and Yarmolenko** will need to carry Ukraine's creative burden without their usual supporting cast, a tall order against a well-organized home defense.
- The **3-0 result in Kyiv** still echoes — if Northern Ireland's midfield can control the tempo early, they could suffocate Ukraine's attacking rhythm.
Expected lineups:
- **Northern Ireland**: P. Charles, I. Price, R. McConville, C. Brown, T. Hume, E. Galbraith, J. Devenny, K. Morrison
- **Ukraine**: A. Trubin, V. Mykolenko, I. Zabarnyi, M. Matvienko, O. Ocheretko, Y. Yarmoliuk, G. Sudakov, A. Yarmolenko, R. Yaremchuk
Prediction:
**Northern Ireland 2-0 Ukraine** — home advantage and Ukraine's injury woes tip the scale decisively.
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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