Derby County 1-2 Lincoln City: Stats, xG & Lineups

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Derby County 1-2 Lincoln City.

90+1'

B. Clark

Attempt blocked. B. Clark (Derby County), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

90'

4 minutes of added time.

88'

A. Reach

Substitution, Lincoln City: C. Elder comes on for A. Reach.

86'

J. Ward

Attempt saved. J. Ward (Derby County), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

84'

R. Hackett-Fairchild

Attempt missed. R. Hackett-Fairchild (Lincoln City), header. xG 0.10.

83'

R. Hackett-Fairchild

Attempt missed. R. Hackett-Fairchild (Lincoln City), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.04.

81'

Lincoln City

Corner, Lincoln City.

80'

S. Szmodics

Substitution, Derby County: L. Salvesen comes on for S. Szmodics.

79'

F. Draper

Substitution, Lincoln City: I. Olaofe comes on for F. Draper.

79'

R. Street

Substitution, Lincoln City: R. Hackett-Fairchild comes on for R. Street.

79'

B. House

Substitution, Lincoln City: M. Melia comes on for B. House.

76'

B. House

Attempt saved. B. House (Lincoln City), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

76'

Lincoln City

Corner, Lincoln City.

67'

D. Jefferies

Substitution, Lincoln City: R. Towler comes on for D. Jefferies.

64'

C. Morris

Attempt missed. C. Morris (Derby County), right-footed shot. xG 0.12.

63'

O. Fraulo

Substitution, Derby County: F. Bilbija comes on for O. Fraulo.

63'

C. Taylor

Substitution, Derby County: M. Johnston comes on for C. Taylor.

63'

C. Taylor

Substitution, Derby County: C. Forsyth comes on for C. Taylor.

60'

Derby County

Corner, Derby County.

60'

C. Morris

Attempt saved. C. Morris (Derby County), right-footed shot. xG 0.22.

52'

F. Draper

Attempt missed. F. Draper (Lincoln City), header from a corner. xG 0.03.

52'

Lincoln City

Corner, Lincoln City.

51'

D. Jefferies

Attempt missed. D. Jefferies (Lincoln City), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

50'

Lincoln City

Offside, Lincoln City.

50'

B. House

Attempt blocked. B. House (Lincoln City), right-footed shot. xG 0.15.

50'

D. Elerewe

Attempt missed. D. Elerewe (Lincoln City), header from a corner. xG 0.05.

48'

B. House

Yellow card for B. House (Lincoln City) for foul.

47'

Lincoln City

Offside, Lincoln City.

46'

M. Clarke

Substitution, Derby County: D. Sanderson comes on for M. Clarke.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Derby County 1-2 Lincoln City.

45+1'

S. Szmodics

Goal! Derby County 1-2 Lincoln City. S. Szmodics (Derby County) scores.

45'

3 minutes of added time.

44'

C. Morris

Attempt blocked. C. Morris (Derby County), left-footed shot. xG 0.07.

41'

Lincoln City

Offside, Lincoln City.

41'

B. House

Attempt blocked. B. House (Lincoln City), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.08.

41'

V. Ivan

Attempt blocked. V. Ivan (Lincoln City), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.03.

39'

Derby County

Corner, Derby County.

37'

A. Reach

Attempt blocked. A. Reach (Lincoln City), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.05.

35'

L. Travis

Yellow card for L. Travis (Derby County) for foul.

32'

A. Reach

Yellow card for A. Reach (Lincoln City) for foul.

23'

D. Jefferies

Goal! Derby County 0-2 Lincoln City. D. Jefferies (Lincoln City) scores, assisted by F. Draper.

20'

B. House

Attempt saved. B. House (Lincoln City), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

15'

T. Hamer

Attempt missed. T. Hamer (Lincoln City), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.10.

13'

J. Ward

Attempt blocked. J. Ward (Derby County), left-footed shot. xG 0.03.

10'

Lincoln City

Corner, Lincoln City.

7'

S. Szmodics

Attempt saved. S. Szmodics (Derby County), right-footed shot. xG 0.07.

7'

Derby County

Corner, Derby County.

3'

B. House

Goal! Derby County 0-1 Lincoln City. B. House (Lincoln City) scores, assisted by V. Ivan.

2'

Lincoln City

Corner, Lincoln City.

1'

Kick-off: Derby County vs Lincoln City.

Where the money is

110170 EUR matched · captured 2 months, 3 weeks ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 76943 EUR · live

Away 1.04 · implied 96.2%

75.1%

-21.0 vs price

Home 130.0 · implied 0.8%

19.0%

+18.2 vs price

Draw 11.0 · implied 9.1%

5.9%

-3.2 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 728 EUR

Under 2.22 · implied 45.0%

68.1%

+23.1 vs price

Over 1.82 · implied 54.9%

32.4%

-22.5 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 1994 EUR · live

Under 1.89 · implied 52.9%

92.8%

+39.9 vs price

Over 2.1 · implied 47.6%

7.2%

-40.4 vs price

11 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG (estimated)

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

3' ⚽ B. House · assist V. Ivan0–1

23' ⚽ D. Jefferies · assist F. Draper0–2

32' A. Reach · Foul

35' L. Travis · Foul

Half-time · 1–2

45'⁺¹ ⚽ S. Szmodics1–2

46' 🔁 D. Sanderson ◂ M. Clarke

48' B. House · Foul

63' 🔁 C. Forsyth ◂ C. Taylor

63' 🔁 M. Johnston ◂ C. Taylor

63' 🔁 F. Bilbija ◂ O. Fraulo

67' 🔁 R. Towler ◂ D. Jefferies

79' 🔁 M. Melia ◂ B. House

79' 🔁 R. Hackett-Fairchild ◂ R. Street

79' 🔁 I. Olaofe ◂ F. Draper

80' 🔁 L. Salvesen ◂ S. Szmodics

88' 🔁 C. Elder ◂ A. Reach

Full-time · 1–2

Coaches

John Eustace

Chris Cohen

Recent form

Derby County

DARotherham United1-1

LABurton Albion0-1

WAMansfield Town3-1

LHValencia1-2

LHSC Freiburg1-3

Lincoln City

LABarnsley0-3

WADoncaster Rovers1-0

LAGrimsby Town1-5

LALeyton Orient0-2

WABoston United1-0

Where to watch

Diema Sport 3 HDPlay Diema Xtra

Match facts

Stadium

Pride Park Stadium

City

Derby

Referee

Josh Smith

3.74 yellows/match · 47 matches

Kickoff

08 Aug, 14:00 UTC

Competition

Carabao Cup

Highlights & clips

Derby County 4-2-3-1 · 4-4-2 Lincoln City

1 J. W. Zetterström 7.3 23 J. Ward 5.9 6 S. K. Langås 6.3 28 D. Sanderson 6.8 ↑ 46' 3 C. Forsyth 6.9 ↑ 63' 22 M. Johnston 6.9 ↑ 63' 27 L. Travis 7.2 15 L. Salvesen 6.3 ↑ 80' 8 B. Clark 6.4 13 F. Bilbija 6.8 ↑ 63' 9 C. Morris 6.7 1 G. Wickens 6.7 2 T. Darikwa 6.9 22 T. Hamer 6.5 25 D. Elerewe 7.0 20 C. Elder ↑ 88' 6 R. Towler 6.8 ↑ 67' 14 C. McGrandles 7.1 24 V. Ivan 7.2 7 R. Hackett-Fairchild 6.8 ↑ 79' 19 I. Olaofe 6.5 ↑ 79' 10 M. Melia 6.4 ↑ 79'

Substitutes

31GJ. Vickers 5DM. Clarke↓ 46'6.5 11MS. Szmodics↓ 80'7.6 18MC. Taylor↓ 63'6.2 29MO. Fraulo↓ 63'6.2 33MC. Taylor↓ 63'6.2 40MC. Allen 41MC. Smith 37MO. Eames

Coach: John Eustace

Substitutes

46GJ. Gauci 21GJ. Pardington 3DA. Reach↓ 88'6.6 4DA. Coubiș 18MB. House↓ 79'8.5 16MD. Jefferies↓ 67'7.4 23MJ. Honohan 34FF. Draper↓ 79'6.6 17FR. Street↓ 79'6.3

Coach: Chris Cohen

Top stats

71%Possession29%

0.0Expected goals (xG)0.0

8Total shots14

4Shots on target4

0Big chances2

3Corners6

Shots

1Shots off target6

3Blocked shots4

3Shots inside box10

5Shots outside box4

0Hit woodwork0

0Big chances scored1

0Big chances missed1

Attack

13Touches in box24

51Final third entries53

1Offsides3

12Free kicks12

2Fouled in final third2

Passing

537Passes220

460Accurate passes148

21/51 (41%)Long balls22/61 (36%)

6/27 (22%)Crosses5/13 (38%)

29Throw-ins25

Duels

50Duels50

36/69 (52%)Ground duels33/69 (48%)

14/32 (44%)Aerial duels18/32 (56%)

5/14 (36%)Dribbles2/13 (15%)

10Dispossessed8

Defending

19Tackles19

63Tackles won74

1Interceptions6

28Clearances32

41Recoveries47

Discipline

12Fouls12

1Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

1Big saves0

9Goal kicks8

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 33 bookmakers

Derby 47%

25%

Lincoln 27%

BTTSBoth teams to score 57% · 1.68 @ 1xBet

Who winsDerby to win (DNB) 63% · 1.50 @ Betway

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 55% · 1.81 @ 1xBet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 60% · 1.62 @ Unibet

1X2Derby to win 47% · 2.05 @ Bwin

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 77% · 1.27 @ Unibet

1X2Draw 25% · 3.62 @ 1xBet

1X2Lincoln to win 27% · 3.71 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 62% · 1.53 @ Betway

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 51% · 1.85 @ Pinnacle

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 66% · 1.42 @ Betano

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.86

Derby County ▲

3.49

Draw ▼

3.51

Lincoln City ▲

Double Chanceconsensus

1.28

Derby County or Draw ▲

1.25

Derby County or Lincoln City

1.72

Draw or Lincoln City

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.64

Yes

2.13

No

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.03

Over 0.50

10.31

Under 0.50 ▲

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.25

Over 1.50

3.80

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.78

Over 2.50

1.99

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.90

Over 3.50

1.39

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

5.25

Over 4.50 ▲

1.15

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.47

Derby County ▲

2.52

Lincoln City ▲

Total Corners (O/U) 4.50consensus

1.01

Over 4.50

12.25

Under 4.50

Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus

1.06

Over 5.50

8.00

Under 5.50

Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus

1.16

Over 6.50 ▲

4.92

Under 6.50 ▼

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.31

Over 7.50

3.15

Under 7.50 ▼

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.54

Over 8.50

2.31

Under 8.50 ▼

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.91

Over 9.50 ▲

1.79

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.47

Over 10.50 ▲

1.47

Under 10.50 ▼

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.1%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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