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José Mourinho
Real Madrid
Real Sociedad
Real Madrid
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Real Sociedad
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
4747149 EUR · live
Home
1.01 · implied 99.0%
95.1%
-4.0 vs price
Draw
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
2.7%
+2.6 vs price
Away
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
2.3%
+2.2 vs price
Half time
16484 EUR · live
Home
1.99 · implied 50.3%
85.2%
+35.0 vs price
Draw
2.44 · implied 41.0%
8.0%
-33.0 vs price
Away
12.0 · implied 8.3%
6.8%
-1.5 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
344342 EUR · live
Over
1.23 · implied 81.3%
62.9%
-18.5 vs price
Under
5.3 · implied 18.9%
37.2%
+18.3 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
22553 EUR · live
Under
1.06 · implied 94.3%
80.2%
-14.1 vs price
Over
15.0 · implied 6.7%
19.8%
+13.1 vs price
19 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 2 clips
Player of the match
Match events
10'
Á. Carreras · Foul
31'
Y. Herrera · Foul
40'
⚽
K. Mbappé · assist F. Valverde1–0
44'
⚽
L. Sučić1–1
Half-time · 1–1
45'+2
J. Aramburu · Foul
46'
🔁
M. Cucurella ◂ Á. Carreras
57'
🔁
O. S. Óskarsson ◂ M. Oyarzabal
57'
🔁
I. Zubeldia ◂ J. Aramburu
60'
⚽
K. Mbappé · assist J. Bellingham2–1
66'
🔁
C. Soler ◂ Y. Herrera
66'
🔁
A. Barrenetxea ◂ J. Ochieng
68'
⚽
Vinícius Jr. · assist J. Bellingham3–1
71'
L. Beitia · Foul
73'
I. Konaté · Foul
74'
🔁
G. Guedes ◂ T. Kubo
78'
🔁
B. Díaz ◂ A. Güler
78'
🔁
E. Camavinga ◂ J. Bellingham
80'
⚽
K. Mbappé · assist Vinícius Jr.4–1
84'
🔁
Y. Diomande ◂ Vinícius Jr.
86'
🔁
C. Espí ◂ B. Silva
Full-time · 4–1
90'+1
VAR
Goal not given after review · B. Díaz
90'+4
E. Camavinga · Foul
Coaches
Pellegrino Matarazzo 
Recent form
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DHFiorentina2-2
LAReal Betis0-1
LAChelsea1-3
LA1. FC Köln1-2
LAToulouse1-2
WAAston Villa4-2
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Match facts
Stadium
Bernabéu
City
Madrid
Kickoff
26 Aug, 19:00 UTC
Competition
La Liga
Highlights & clips
1
T. Courtois
6.6
24
D. Dumfries
6.1
16
I. Konaté
7.3
4
D. Huijsen
7.3
17
M. Cucurella
7.0
↑ 46'
8
F. Valverde
7.7
19
C. Espí
6.4
↑ 86'
6
E. Camavinga
6.8
↑ 78'
21
B. Díaz
6.5
↑ 78'
25
Y. Diomande
6.6
↑ 84'
10
K. Mbappé
10.0
1
Á. Remiro
8.1
5
I. Zubeldia
6.0
↑ 57'
34
L. Beitia
5.7
31
J. Martin
6.1
17
S. Gómez
6.1
7
A. Barrenetxea
6.6
↑ 66'
8
B. Turrientes
7.0
11
G. Guedes
6.4
↑ 74'
24
L. Sučić
7.3
18
C. Soler
6.8
↑ 66'
9
O. S. Óskarsson
6.4
↑ 57'
Substitutes
26GS. Mestre
13GA. Lunin
18DÁ. Carreras↓ 46'6.2
12DT. Alexander-Arnold
33DM. Rivas
22DA. Rüdiger
5MJ. Bellingham↓ 78'9.0
15MA. Güler↓ 78'7.4
20MB. Silva↓ 86'7.0
36MA. Ciria
29MJ. Cestero
7FVinícius Jr.↓ 84'7.8
Coach: José Mourinho
Substitutes
13GU. Marrero
2DJ. Aramburu↓ 57'6.1
3DA. Muñoz
16DJ. Pacheco
21MY. Herrera↓ 66'6.4
14MT. Kubo↓ 74'6.3
12MJ. Ochieng↓ 66'6.2
29MA. Marchal
26MI. Aguirre
28MA. Lebarbier
23MA. Zakharyan
10FM. Oyarzabal↓ 57'6.2
Coach: Pellegrino Matarazzo
Top stats
51%Possession49%
3.14Expected goals (xG)0.57
20Total shots10
11Shots on target3
5Big chances0
4Corners7
Shots
3Shots off target4
6Blocked shots3
14Shots inside box7
6Shots outside box3
0Hit woodwork0
3Big chances scored0
2Big chances missed0
-0.13Goals prevented-0.02
Attack
46Touches in box15
58Final third entries45
1Offsides0
8Free kicks10
Passing
581Passes554
531Accurate passes501
23/41 (56%)Long balls35/53 (66%)
1/9 (11%)Crosses1/13 (8%)
9Throw-ins22
Duels
56Duels44
33/59 (56%)Ground duels26/59 (44%)
4/7 (57%)Aerial duels3/7 (43%)
7/14 (50%)Dribbles4/9 (44%)
5Dispossessed13
Defending
18Tackles12
72Tackles won50
11Interceptions6
17Clearances13
44Recoveries37
Discipline
10Fouls8
3Yellow cards3
Goalkeeping
2Saves7
1Big saves0
8Goal kicks7
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 72 bookmakers
1X2Real Madrid to win 74% · 1.74 @ Novibet
Who winsReal Madrid to win (DNB) 83% · 1.23 @ forbet
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 66% · 3.20 @ William Hill
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 84% · 1.73 @ William Hill
CornersOver 9.5 corners 53% · 1.68 @ Pinnacle
CornersOver 8.5 corners 65% · 1.40 @ betfair
BTTSBoth teams to score 53% · 3.25 @ Bet365
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 58% · 1.72 @ Pinnacle
1X2Draw 16% · 3.50 @ 1xBet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 56% · 1.82 @ 1xBet
1X2Real Sociedad to win 10% · 7.40 @ 1xBet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
1.39
Real Madrid ▲
5.00
Draw ▲
7.05
Real Sociedad ▲
Double Chanceconsensus
1.10
Real Madrid or Draw ▲
1.16
Real Madrid or Real Sociedad
2.89
Draw or Real Sociedad ▼
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.73
Yes ▲
2.02
No
Home Clean Sheetconsensus
2.20
YES
1.60
NO
Away Clean Sheetconsensus
9.00
YES
1.03
NO
Home Win to Nilconsensus
2.45
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
16.00
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.01
Over 0.50
22.00
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.15
Over 1.50 ▲
5.05
Under 1.50 ▲
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.51
Over 2.50 ▲
2.47
Under 2.50 ▼
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.29
Over 3.50 ▲
1.59
Under 3.50 ▼
Total Goals 4.50consensus
3.28
Over 4.50
1.31
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.13
Real Madrid ▲
5.41
Real Sociedad ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.20
Over 7.50
3.80
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.38
Over 8.50
2.75
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.64
Over 9.50
2.12
Under 9.50
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
Real Madrid to win or draw
✓
90% confidence
Over 1.5 goals
✓
84% confidence
Real Madrid to avoid defeat
✓
83% confidence
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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