Elche vs Real Sociedad — live & stats

Where the money is

539257 EUR matched · captured 1 week, 5 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 133059 EUR · live

Away 2.22 · implied 45.0%

66.4%

+21.4 vs price

Draw 3.6 · implied 27.8%

17.6%

-10.1 vs price

Home 3.65 · implied 27.4%

15.9%

-11.5 vs price

Half time 344 EUR · live

Draw 2.44 · implied 41.0%

96.6%

+55.6 vs price

Away 2.96 · implied 33.8%

1.8%

-32.0 vs price

Home 4.1 · implied 24.4%

0.9%

-23.5 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 19923 EUR · live

Over 1.86 · implied 53.8%

89.3%

+35.6 vs price

Under 2.18 · implied 45.9%

10.7%

-35.2 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 988 EUR · live

Under 1.15 · implied 87.0%

99.1%

+12.1 vs price

Over 8.0 · implied 12.5%

0.8%

-11.7 vs price

19 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

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Highlights 2 clips

Player of the match

Match events

9' J. Aramburu · Foul

11' ⚽ J. Ochieng · assist C. Soler0–1

31' ⚽ Y. Herrera · assist J. Ochieng0–2

43' T. Morente · Foul

Half-time · 0–2

55' 🔁 T. Lemar ◂ F. Buonanotte

55' 🔁 A. Osorio ◂ E. Ponce

57' A. Osorio · Argument

58' 🔁 J. Martin ◂ M. Sarr

58' 🔁 A. Marchal ◂ G. Guedes

63' VAR Goal not given after review · L. Sučić

64' J. Martin · Professional handball

67' ⚽ T. Lemar · assist V. Chust1–2

68' G. Valera · Argument

70' 🔁 L. Cepeda ◂ G. Villar

70' 🔁 J. Gorrotxategi ◂ M. Oyarzabal

70' 🔁 J. Pacheco ◂ Y. Herrera

74' ⚽ F. Niño · assist T. Morente2–2

81' 🔁 R. Revivo ◂ B. Sangaré

81' 🔁 Josan ◂ G. Valera

81' 🔁 H. Fort ◂ A. Marchal

Full-time · 2–3

90' ⚽ L. Sučić · assist J. Ochieng2–3

90'⁺⁷ T. Lemar · Foul

Coaches

Martin Anselmi

Pellegrino Matarazzo

Recent form

Elche

LAReal Racing Club2-3

LHFC Barcelona0-5

DADeportivo de A Coruña1-1

WHToulouse3-0

DHCórdoba2-2

Real Sociedad

DHCelta Vigo0-0

WHEspanyol2-1

LAReal Madrid1-4

LAReal Betis0-1

LAChelsea1-3

About this match

**Elche's basement battle gets a visit from a wounded Real Sociedad** — both teams are barely treading water, but one has to start climbing. 🔴⚪

Elche's mixed start (1W-2D-2L) includes that brutal 5-0 hammering at home to Barcelona, while Sociedad's collapse in San Sebastián has been even grimmer — they've won just once in five and got dismantled 4-1 by Real Madrid. Real Sociedad's history in this fixture is stellar (20 wins in 34 meetings), but injuries and form have them vulnerable.

Key storylines:

- **Real Sociedad** arrive as heavy favorites on paper, but missing Á. Odriozola, A. Barrenetxea, and J. Gorrotxategi leaves their squad stretched thin 🩹
- **Elche's defensive block** — led by P. Bigas and V. Chust — could frustrate a Sociedad side lacking offensive rhythm
- **O. S. Óskarsson** and T. Kubo will carry the creative load for the visitors; **F. Redondo** anchors Elche's press

Expected lineups:

- **Elche**: M. Dituro, V. Chust, P. Bigas, D. Affengruber, T. Morente, B. Sangaré, G. Villar, G. Valera, F. Redondo, M. Aguado, E. Ponce
- **Real Sociedad**: Á. Remiro, S. Gómez, J. Martin, I. Zubeldia, J. Aramburu, Y. Herrera, B. Turrientes, A. Marchal, L. Sučić, T. Kubo, O. S. Óskarsson

Prediction:

**Real Sociedad 1-1 Elche**. Sociedad's class should show, but Elche's grit at home keeps it tight. Real Sociedad edge it on the quality flip.

Where to watch

Disney+ Premium

Match facts

Stadium

Estadio Martínez Valero

City

Elche

Referee

Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias

3.74 yellows/match · 27 matches

Kickoff

07 Sep, 19:30 UTC

Competition

La Liga

Highlights & clips

Elche 3-5-2 · 4-4-2 Real Sociedad

1 M. Dituro 5.4 3 R. Revivo 6.2 ↑ 81' 23 V. Chust 6.7 6 P. Bigas 5.4 20 T. Morente 6.4 18 T. Lemar 8.0 ↑ 55' 47 J. Morcillo 6.6 21 L. Cepeda 7.4 ↑ 70' 17 Josan 6.9 ↑ 81' 24 A. Osorio 6.0 ↑ 55' 14 F. Niño 7.9 13 U. Marrero 8.8 2 J. Aramburu 6.8 5 I. Zubeldia 6.2 6 J. Martin 4.4 ↑ 58' 17 S. Gómez 6.8 12 J. Ochieng 8.2 16 J. Pacheco 6.6 ↑ 70' 18 C. Soler 7.0 29 A. Marchal 6.5 ↑ 58' 24 L. Sučić 8.4 4 J. Gorrotxategi 6.5 ↑ 70'

Substitutes

13GA. Iturbe 2DB. Sangaré↓ 81'6.5 22DR. Sánchez 26DM. Barzić 12MG. Villar↓ 70'6.9 11MG. Valera↓ 81'6.8 10MF. Buonanotte↓ 55'6.2 8MM. Aguado 16MM. Neto 5MF. Redondo 29MA. Houary 9FE. Ponce↓ 55'6.4

Coach: Martin Anselmi

Substitutes

1GÁ. Remiro 19DM. Sarr↓ 58'7.1 22DH. Fort↑ 81'6.8 3DA. Muñoz 21MY. Herrera↓ 70'7.7 11MG. Guedes↓ 58'6.6 8MB. Turrientes 23MA. Zakharyan 7MA. Barrenetxea 14MT. Kubo 10FM. Oyarzabal↓ 70'6.9 9FO. S. Óskarsson

Coach: Pellegrino Matarazzo

Top stats

59%Possession41%

2.47Expected goals (xG)0.58

20Total shots13

10Shots on target6

5Big chances1

6Corners7

Shots

8Shots off target5

2Blocked shots2

15Shots inside box8

5Shots outside box5

1Big chances scored1

4Big chances missed0

-1.59Goals prevented0.43

Attack

31Touches in box16

46Final third entries36

2Offsides1

8Free kicks9

2Fouled in final third2

Passing

496Passes361

440Accurate passes300

26/45 (58%)Long balls33/58 (57%)

10/32 (31%)Crosses3/14 (21%)

20Throw-ins14

Duels

41Duels59

28/66 (42%)Ground duels38/66 (58%)

8/22 (36%)Aerial duels14/22 (64%)

7/17 (41%)Dribbles6/10 (60%)

13Dispossessed10

Defending

14Tackles23

64Tackles won61

9Interceptions4

10Clearances22

51Recoveries51

Discipline

9Fouls8

4Yellow cards1

0Red cards1

Goalkeeping

3Saves8

1Big saves2

6Goal kicks9

1Punches2

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 20 bookmakers

Elche 31%

28%

Real Sociedad 42%

1X2Real Sociedad to win 42% · 2.50 @ William Hill

BTTSBoth teams to score 58% · 3.00 @ Bet365

1X2Draw 28% · 2.62 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 53% · 4.00 @ William Hill

CornersOver 8.5 corners 58% · 1.70 @ 10bet

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 75% · 1.97 @ 1xBet

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 66% · 1.50 @ Pinnacle

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 54% · 1.83 @ 1xBet

Who winsElche to win (DNB) 56% · 2.50 @ Bet365

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 68% · 1.48 @ Pinnacle

1X2Elche to win 31% · 3.50 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

3.40

Elche

3.50

Draw

2.10

Real Sociedad

Double Chanceconsensus

1.67

Elche or Draw

1.28

Elche or Real Sociedad

1.30

Draw or Real Sociedad

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.59

Yes

2.27

No

Home Clean Sheetconsensus

4.00

YES

1.20

NO

Away Clean Sheetconsensus

3.20

YES

1.30

NO

Home Win to Nilconsensus

6.00

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

4.10

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

11.50

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.23

Over 1.50

4.00

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.75

Over 2.50

2.10

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.83

Over 3.50

1.42

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

5.40

Over 4.50

1.14

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

2.50

Elche

1.52

Real Sociedad

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.29

Over 7.50

2.90

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.62

Over 8.50

2.24

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.95

Over 9.50

1.77

Under 9.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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