Celta Vigo 2-1 Deportivo Alavés: Stats & xG – Oct 18, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Celta Vigo 2-1 Deportivo Alavés.

90+3'

M. Díaz

Attempt saved. M. Díaz (Deportivo Alavés), header. xG 0.04.

90+1'

L. Boyé

Attempt saved. L. Boyé (Deportivo Alavés), header. xG 0.03.

90+1'

A. Guevara

Attempt blocked. A. Guevara (Deportivo Alavés), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

90'

5 minutes of added time.

88'

A. Rebbach

Substitution, Deportivo Alavés: A. Mañas comes on for A. Rebbach.

88'

A. Blanco

Substitution, Deportivo Alavés: A. Guevara comes on for A. Blanco.

87'

H. N. Ramos

Goal! Celta Vigo 2-1 Deportivo Alavés. H. N. Ramos (Deportivo Alavés) scores, assisted by M. Díaz.

85'

P. Ibáñez

Attempt missed. P. Ibáñez (Deportivo Alavés), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

84'

L. Boyé

Attempt missed. L. Boyé (Deportivo Alavés), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

83'

N. Valentini

Attempt missed. N. Valentini (Deportivo Alavés), header from a corner. xG 0.06.

79'

S. Carreira

Attempt missed. S. Carreira (Celta Vigo), right-footed shot. xG 0.05.

77'

S. Cáceres

Substitution, Celta Vigo: M. Alonso comes on for S. Cáceres.

76'

M. Díaz

Attempt blocked. M. Díaz (Deportivo Alavés), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

76'

P. Ibáñez

Attempt blocked. P. Ibáñez (Deportivo Alavés), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.03.

73'

L. Boyé

Attempt saved. L. Boyé (Deportivo Alavés), left-footed shot. xG 0.08.

71'

J. Rodríguez

Goal! Celta Vigo 2-0 Deportivo Alavés. J. Rodríguez (Celta Vigo) scores, assisted by I. Aspas.

70'

C. Driouech

Substitution, Celta Vigo: I. Aspas comes on for C. Driouech.

70'

H. Burcio

Substitution, Celta Vigo: A. Antañón comes on for H. Burcio.

68'

N. Valentini

Attempt blocked. N. Valentini (Deportivo Alavés), header from a corner. xG 0.04.

62'

J. Otto

Substitution, Deportivo Alavés: H. N. Ramos comes on for J. Otto.

62'

T. Martínez

Substitution, Deportivo Alavés: M. Díaz comes on for T. Martínez.

62'

C. Aleñá

Substitution, Deportivo Alavés: D. Suárez comes on for C. Aleñá.

61'

C. Aleñá

Attempt blocked. C. Aleñá (Deportivo Alavés), left-footed shot. xG 0.05.

61'

N. Tenaglia

Attempt saved. N. Tenaglia (Deportivo Alavés), header. xG 0.06.

55'

N. Valentini

Attempt saved. N. Valentini (Deportivo Alavés), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

53'

F. Jutglà

Goal! Celta Vigo 1-0 Deportivo Alavés. F. Jutglà (Celta Vigo) scores, assisted by J. Rodríguez.

50'

C. Driouech

Attempt saved. C. Driouech (Celta Vigo), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

50'

A. Rebbach

Attempt saved. A. Rebbach (Deportivo Alavés), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

48'

T. Martínez

Attempt blocked. T. Martínez (Deportivo Alavés), left-footed shot. xG 0.05.

47'

T. Martínez

Attempt missed. T. Martínez (Deportivo Alavés), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

46'

I. Moriba

Substitution, Celta Vigo: A. Febas comes on for I. Moriba.

46'

W. Swedberg

Substitution, Celta Vigo: J. Rueda comes on for W. Swedberg.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Celta Vigo 0-0 Deportivo Alavés.

45'

T. Martínez

Yellow card for T. Martínez (Deportivo Alavés) for foul.

43'

J. Otto

Attempt missed. J. Otto (Deportivo Alavés), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.02.

33'

L. Boyé

Attempt saved. L. Boyé (Deportivo Alavés), header. xG 0.25.

30'

T. Martínez

Attempt saved. T. Martínez (Deportivo Alavés), header. xG 0.02.

28'

H. Álvarez

Attempt missed. H. Álvarez (Celta Vigo), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

26'

F. Jutglà

Attempt missed. F. Jutglà (Celta Vigo), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.14.

15'

S. Cáceres

Yellow card for S. Cáceres (Celta Vigo) for foul.

1'

Kick-off: Celta Vigo vs Deportivo Alavés.

Where the money is

1068243 EUR matched · captured 2 weeks, 5 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 610239 EUR · live

Home 1.05 · implied 95.2%

79.8%

-15.5 vs price

Draw 19.5 · implied 5.1%

13.8%

+8.7 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

6.4%

+6.3 vs price

Half time 1943 EUR · live

Draw 1.94 · implied 51.5%

91.4%

+39.9 vs price

Away 4.7 · implied 21.3%

4.7%

-16.6 vs price

Home 3.15 · implied 31.7%

3.9%

-27.9 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 183321 EUR · live

Under 1.31 · implied 76.3%

83.7%

+7.4 vs price

Over 4.3 · implied 23.3%

16.3%

-7.0 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 565 EUR · live

Under 1.05 · implied 95.2%

65.2%

-30.1 vs price

Over 29.0 · implied 3.4%

34.5%

+31.1 vs price

17 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 1 clip

Player of the match

Match events

15' S. Cáceres · Foul

Half-time · 0–0

45' T. Martínez · Foul

46' 🔁 J. Rueda ◂ W. Swedberg

46' 🔁 A. Febas ◂ I. Moriba

53' ⚽ F. Jutglà · assist J. Rodríguez1–0

62' 🔁 D. Suárez ◂ C. Aleñá

62' 🔁 M. Díaz ◂ T. Martínez

62' 🔁 H. N. Ramos ◂ J. Otto

70' 🔁 A. Antañón ◂ H. Burcio

70' 🔁 I. Aspas ◂ C. Driouech

71' ⚽ J. Rodríguez · assist I. Aspas2–0

77' 🔁 M. Alonso ◂ S. Cáceres

87' ⚽ H. N. Ramos · assist M. Díaz2–1

88' 🔁 A. Guevara ◂ A. Blanco

88' 🔁 A. Mañas ◂ A. Rebbach

Full-time · 2–1

Coaches

Claudio Giráldez

Quique Sánchez Flores

Recent form

Celta Vigo

LHJuventus1-2

DAElche0-0

WHReal Racing Club5-0

LAOmonia Nicosia0-1

DHMálaga CF1-1

Deportivo Alavés

LHAtlético Madrid1-2

DAAthletic Club0-0

LHValencia0-1

LAReal Racing Club1-2

WHOsasuna5-2

About this match

**Celta are heavy favorites here, but Alavés aren't dead weight** — this is a matchup where form tells a story, and one team's looking way sharper than the other. 🔴

Celta's riding a high after dismantling Real Racing 5-0, while Alavés are limping through three straight defeats. The hosts have won 14 of 34 meetings, so the edge is firmly Vigo's way.

Key storylines:

- **Celta's firepower without Iago Aspas** — W. Swedberg and F. Jutglà will carry the attacking load with the star sidelined by thigh injury
- **Alavés' defensive fragility** — three straight losses have exposed their backline; L. Boyé and T. Martínez need to stay compact
- **Home comfort matters** — Celta's 5-0 demolition at the Balaídos shows what they can do in front of their own crowd

Expected lineups:

- **Celta Vigo**: I. Radu, Y. Lago, M. Alonso, S. Cáceres, S. Carreira, A. Núñez, I. Moriba, A. Febas
- **Deportivo Alavés**: A. Sivera, N. Tenaglia, V. Koski, N. Valentini, A. Rebbach, J. Otto, D. Suárez

Prediction:

**Celta 2-0 Alavés**

Celta's form and home advantage give them a lean here; Alavés look too fragile to nick anything.

Where to watch

CazéTV

Match facts

Stadium

Estadio Abanca Balaídos

City

Vigo

Referee

José Luis Munuera Montero

3.89 yellows/match · 47 matches

Kickoff

18 Oct, 14:15 UTC

Competition

La Liga

Highlights & clips

Celta Vigo 3-4-3 · 5-3-2 Deportivo Alavés

13 I. Radu 8.5 20 J. Rodríguez 9.2 18 Y. Lago 6.9 3 M. Alonso 7.0 ↑ 77' 5 S. Carreira 6.8 28 A. Antañón 6.3 ↑ 70' 14 A. Febas 6.5 ↑ 46' 23 H. Álvarez 6.3 10 I. Aspas 6.8 ↑ 70' 9 F. Jutglà 7.0 17 J. Rueda 6.4 ↑ 46' 1 A. Sivera 6.1 14 N. Tenaglia 6.5 12 H. N. Ramos 8.0 ↑ 62' 16 V. Koski 6.6 2 N. Valentini 6.7 6 A. Guevara 6.6 ↑ 88' 19 P. Ibáñez 7.3 20 A. Mañas 6.5 ↑ 88' 4 D. Suárez 6.6 ↑ 62' 9 M. Díaz 6.6 ↑ 62' 15 L. Boyé 7.4

Substitutes

1GA. Bayındır 25GI. Villar 21DS. Cáceres↓ 77'8.0 22DJ. Galán 15DA. Núñez 4DA. Faye 30MH. Burcio↓ 70'7.0 6MI. Moriba↓ 46'6.5 31MÁ. Arcos 16MH. González 24FC. Driouech↓ 70'6.9 19FW. Swedberg↓ 46'6.7

Coach: Claudio Giráldez

Substitutes

31GG. Swiderski 13GA. Rodríguez 17DJ. Otto↓ 62'6.3 3DY. Enriquez 27DX. Olaiz 23DC. Benavídez 8MA. Blanco↓ 88'7.7 10MC. Aleñá↓ 62'6.6 21MA. Rebbach↓ 88'6.5 24MS. Diallo 22MM. Rodríguez 11FT. Martínez↓ 62'6.4

Coach: Quique Sánchez Flores

Top stats

48%Possession52%

0.97Expected goals (xG)1.06

6Total shots20

3Shots on target9

1Big chances2

0Corners4

Shots

3Shots off target5

0Blocked shots6

3Shots inside box14

3Shots outside box6

1Big chances scored0

0Big chances missed2

0.97Goals prevented-0.4

Attack

14Touches in box33

55Final third entries72

0Offsides3

17Free kicks14

3Fouled in final third2

Passing

471Passes491

387Accurate passes398

27/60 (45%)Long balls31/61 (51%)

1/6 (17%)Crosses8/30 (27%)

10Throw-ins22

Duels

49Duels51

39/72 (54%)Ground duels33/72 (46%)

13/34 (38%)Aerial duels21/34 (62%)

8/14 (57%)Dribbles8/11 (73%)

6Dispossessed12

Defending

15Tackles12

73Tackles won67

8Interceptions10

41Clearances14

56Recoveries55

Discipline

14Fouls17

1Yellow cards1

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

8Saves1

7Goal kicks5

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Celta 43%

29%

Alavés 28%

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 56% · 1.14 @ William Hill

BTTSBTTS: No 53% · 1.29 @ William Hill

1X2Draw 29% · 2.39 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 75% · 1.25 @ BetVictor

Who winsCelta to win (DNB) 62% · 1.57 @ 888Sport

CornersOver 8.5 corners 57% · 1.75 @ Pinnacle

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 66% · 1.40 @ betfair

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 54% · 1.73 @ betfair

1X2Celta to win 43% · 2.51 @ 1xBet

1X2Alavés to win 28% · 3.75 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 69% · 2.40 @ William Hill

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.20

Celta Vigo

3.25

Draw

3.40

Deportivo Alavés

Double Chanceconsensus

1.30

Celta Vigo or Draw

1.30

Celta Vigo or Deportivo Alavés

1.67

Draw or Deportivo Alavés

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

2.05

Yes

1.73

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

3.50

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

5.50

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.05

Over 0.50

8.60

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.38

Over 1.50

2.96

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

2.20

Over 2.50

1.67

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

3.74

Over 3.50

1.22

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

8.50

Over 4.50

1.05

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.53

Celta Vigo

2.37

Deportivo Alavés

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.32

Over 7.50

2.98

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.62

Over 8.50

2.10

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

2.03

Over 9.50

1.67

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.66

Over 10.50

1.39

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

3.62

Over 11.50

1.21

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.0%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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