Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Deportivo need to stop the bleeding at home, but Levante's inconsistency makes this a proper coin flip.** Both sides are limping through La Liga, though Depor's winless streak is looking particularly rough. 🔴
Deportivo have won the head-to-head battle historically (9 wins to Levante's 6), but that's cold comfort when you're sitting in the basement form-wise. Levante at least nabbed a win recently and have drawn twice, whereas Depor are stuck in a 0W rut. Neither team is exactly inspiring confidence though.
Key storylines:
- **Deportivo's defensive frailty** — two straight defeats conceding 3+ goals each time, and Levante love to hit teams on the counter
- **B. Nsongo's workload** upfront with **P. Aubameyang** sidelined; can the striker be clinical enough to break through?
- **Levante's road warrior status** — they've shown glimpses of fight despite the inconsistency, and **R. Brugué** will be key in the final third
Expected lineups:
- **Deportivo de A Coruña**: L. Román, G. Quagliata, J. M. Giménez, L. Noubi, X. Navarro, M. Soriano, L. Amatucci, J. A. Jensen, L. Cruz, D. Mella, B. Nsongo
- **Levante UD**: M. Ryan, M. Sánchez, Adri, A. Mandi, J. Toljan, E. Bardeli, T. Fernández, J. A. Olasagasti, O. Rey, V. García, R. Brugué
Prediction:
**Deportivo 1–1 Levante**. Home edge and historical form give Depor a slight lean, but both teams are too erratic to trust a win. Draw feels about right.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.
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