Real Madrid 4-1 Sevilla: Stats, xG & Lineups – Oct 18, 2026

Commentary

90'

Full-time. Real Madrid 4-1 Sevilla.

90+4'

A. Tchouaméni

Attempt saved. A. Tchouaméni (Real Madrid), right-footed shot. xG 0.03.

90'

4 minutes of added time.

86'

Real Madrid

Offside, Real Madrid.

85'

K. Mbappé

Substitution, Real Madrid: C. Espí comes on for K. Mbappé.

85'

F. Valverde

Substitution, Real Madrid: É. Militão comes on for F. Valverde.

84'

Y. Fofana

Attempt saved. Y. Fofana (Sevilla), right-footed shot. xG 0.11.

82'

Y. Diomande

Goal! Real Madrid 4-1 Sevilla. Y. Diomande (Real Madrid) scores, assisted by A. Tchouaméni.

80'

M. Bueno

Goal! Real Madrid 3-1 Sevilla. M. Bueno (Sevilla) scores, assisted by L. Stassin.

78'

A. Güler

Substitution, Real Madrid: E. Camavinga comes on for A. Güler.

74'

M. Bueno

Attempt missed. M. Bueno (Sevilla), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.07.

73'

M. Cucurella

Yellow card for M. Cucurella (Real Madrid) for foul.

73'

F. Correia

Substitution, Sevilla: A. González comes on for F. Correia.

72'

J. Iglesias

Substitution, Sevilla: J. Á. Carmona comes on for J. Iglesias.

70'

J. Bellingham

Substitution, Real Madrid: B. Silva comes on for J. Bellingham.

69'

J. Iglesias

Yellow card for J. Iglesias (Sevilla) for foul.

69'

Endrick

Substitution, Real Madrid: B. Díaz comes on for Endrick.

64'

Y. Fofana

Attempt saved. Y. Fofana (Sevilla), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.

63'

K. Mbappé

Goal! Real Madrid 3-0 Sevilla. K. Mbappé (Real Madrid) converts the penalty.

60'

J. Iglesias

Attempt blocked. J. Iglesias (Sevilla), right-footed shot. xG 0.02.

59'

Sevilla

Corner, Sevilla.

59'

F. Correia

Attempt blocked. F. Correia (Sevilla), right-footed shot. xG 0.17.

56'

R. Ure

Substitution, Sevilla: L. Stassin comes on for R. Ure.

56'

P. Fernández

Substitution, Sevilla: M. Bueno comes on for P. Fernández.

55'

C. Ejuke

Attempt missed. C. Ejuke (Sevilla), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.05.

55'

Y. Diomande

Attempt missed. Y. Diomande (Real Madrid), left-footed shot. xG 0.11.

46'

R. Vargas

Substitution, Sevilla: C. Ejuke comes on for R. Vargas.

46'

The second half is under way.

45'

Half-time. Real Madrid 2-0 Sevilla.

45+4'

Endrick

Attempt missed. Endrick (Real Madrid), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.03.

45+3'

K. Mbappé

Attempt blocked. K. Mbappé (Real Madrid), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.04.

45+3'

Real Madrid

Corner, Real Madrid.

45+2'

L. Agoumé

Attempt saved. L. Agoumé (Sevilla), right-footed shot. xG 0.13.

45'

4 minutes of added time.

43'

K. Salas

Attempt missed. K. Salas (Sevilla), header. xG 0.03.

41'

Sevilla

Corner, Sevilla.

37'

K. Mbappé

Goal! Real Madrid 2-0 Sevilla. K. Mbappé (Real Madrid) scores, assisted by J. Bellingham.

33'

K. Mbappé

Attempt saved. K. Mbappé (Real Madrid), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.12.

30'

A. Güler

Goal! Real Madrid 1-0 Sevilla. A. Güler (Real Madrid) scores, assisted by Y. Diomande.

23'

D. Huijsen

Yellow card for D. Huijsen (Real Madrid) for argument.

23'

F. Correia

Yellow card for F. Correia (Sevilla) for argument.

22'

Y. Diomande

Attempt missed. Y. Diomande (Real Madrid), left-footed shot. xG 0.02.

21'

Endrick

Attempt saved. Endrick (Real Madrid), left-footed shot. xG 0.01.

17'

F. Valverde

Cleared off the line! F. Valverde (Real Madrid), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

16'

R. Vargas

Attempt missed. R. Vargas (Sevilla), right-footed shot. xG 0.04.

7'

Y. Diomande

Attempt missed. Y. Diomande (Real Madrid), left-footed shot. xG 0.06.

6'

Endrick

Attempt blocked. Endrick (Real Madrid), left-footed shot. xG 0.04.

4'

K. Mbappé

Attempt missed. K. Mbappé (Real Madrid), right-footed shot. xG 0.06.

3'

R. Ure

Attempt saved. R. Ure (Sevilla), shot. xG 0.01.

1'

Kick-off: Real Madrid vs Sevilla.

Where the money is

4059986 EUR matched · captured 2 weeks, 1 day ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 2546946 EUR · live

Home 1.01 · implied 99.0%

92.8%

-6.2 vs price

Away 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

4.0%

+3.9 vs price

Draw 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

3.2%

+3.1 vs price

Half time 11993 EUR · live

Home 2.06 · implied 48.5%

68.4%

+19.8 vs price

Draw 2.44 · implied 41.0%

25.9%

-15.1 vs price

Away 10.0 · implied 10.0%

5.7%

-4.3 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 220032 EUR · live

Over 1.28 · implied 78.1%

68.6%

-9.5 vs price

Under 4.6 · implied 21.7%

31.4%

+9.7 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 34599 EUR · live

Under 1.07 · implied 93.5%

91.7%

-1.7 vs price

Over 14.0 · implied 7.1%

8.3%

+1.1 vs price

18 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 2 clips

Player of the match

Match events

23' D. Huijsen · Argument

23' F. Correia · Argument

30' ⚽ A. Güler · assist Y. Diomande1–0

37' ⚽ K. Mbappé · assist J. Bellingham2–0

Half-time · 2–0

46' 🔁 C. Ejuke ◂ R. Vargas

56' 🔁 M. Bueno ◂ P. Fernández

56' 🔁 L. Stassin ◂ R. Ure

63' ⚽ K. Mbappé (pen)3–0

69' 🔁 B. Díaz ◂ Endrick

69' J. Iglesias · Foul

70' 🔁 B. Silva ◂ J. Bellingham

72' 🔁 J. Á. Carmona ◂ J. Iglesias

73' M. Cucurella · Foul

73' 🔁 A. González ◂ F. Correia

78' 🔁 E. Camavinga ◂ A. Güler

80' ⚽ M. Bueno · assist L. Stassin3–1

82' ⚽ Y. Diomande · assist A. Tchouaméni4–1

85' 🔁 É. Militão ◂ F. Valverde

85' 🔁 C. Espí ◂ K. Mbappé

Full-time · 4–1

Coaches

José Mourinho

Luis Garcia

Recent form

Real Madrid

WAAS Roma4-3

WHVillarreal1-0

LAAtlético Madrid1-2

WAElche3-2

WHRayo Vallecano4-1

Sevilla

DALevante UD3-3

LHAston Villa1-3

LHFC Barcelona1-3

WADeportivo de A Coruña1-0

WHValencia1-0

About this match

**Real Madrid rolls into this one as clear favorites, but Sevilla's defensive injuries could create chaos at the Bernabéu.** 🎭

Madrid's on a **4-1-0 tear** despite some squad carnage — missing **Vinícius Jr.** to suspension and **Rodrygo** to a long-term injury. Sevilla's been leaky lately (three straight defeats/draws, conceding freely), and they're **down half their back line** with injuries.

Key storylines:

- **Endrick and K. Mbappé** need to carry the creative load without Vinícius; both have the pace to exploit Sevilla's thin defensive resources
- Sevilla's **J. Iglesias, A. Castrin,** and **K. Salas** will have their hands full anchoring a makeshift back four against Madrid's attacking depth
- Madrid's **J. Bellingham and F. Valverde** midfield pairing sets the tempo; Sevilla's **Y. Fofana and L. Agoumé** are tasked with disruption they may not be equipped for

Expected lineups:

- **Real Madrid**: T. Courtois, A. Rüdiger, I. Konaté, M. Cucurella, D. Huijsen, J. Bellingham, F. Valverde, K. Mbappé, A. Güler, Y. Diomande, Endrick
- **Sevilla**: O. Vlachodimos, G. Suazo, K. Salas, A. Castrin, J. Iglesias, L. Agoumé, Y. Fofana, C. Ejuke, J. Guridi, P. Fernández, R. Ure

Prediction:

**Madrid 3-1 Sevilla.** Real Madrid's superiority in depth and form too much for an injury-ravaged Sevilla side.

Where to watch

Disney+ Premium

Match facts

Stadium

Bernabéu

City

Madrid

Referee

Mateo Busquets Ferrer

5.23 yellows/match · 35 matches

Kickoff

18 Oct, 19:00 UTC

Competition

La Liga

Highlights & clips

Real Madrid 4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1 Sevilla

1 T. Courtois 7.2 3 É. Militão 6.7 ↑ 85' 16 I. Konaté 7.1 4 D. Huijsen 7.5 17 M. Cucurella 6.1 6 E. Camavinga 6.6 ↑ 78' 14 A. Tchouaméni 7.2 21 B. Díaz 6.3 ↑ 69' 20 B. Silva 6.4 ↑ 70' 25 Y. Diomande 9.2 19 C. Espí 6.5 ↑ 85' 1 O. Vlachodimos 5.5 22 J. Á. Carmona 6.5 ↑ 72' 5 A. Castrin 5.8 4 K. Salas 6.6 17 G. Suazo 6.1 6 L. Agoumé 6.7 24 Y. Fofana 6.4 21 C. Ejuke 7.1 ↑ 46' 14 M. Bueno 7.5 ↑ 56' 7 A. González 6.6 ↑ 73' 19 L. Stassin 6.6 ↑ 56'

Top stats

65%Possession35%

2.24Expected goals (xG)0.75

15Total shots11

8Shots on target5

2Big chances2

1Corners2

Shots

5Shots off target4

2Blocked shots2

10Shots inside box9

5Shots outside box2

2Big chances scored0

0Big chances missed2

0.07Goals prevented-1.2

Attack

36Touches in box24

59Final third entries46

1Offsides0

13Free kicks10

2Fouled in final third2

Passing

666Passes350

604Accurate passes281

33/51 (65%)Long balls19/45 (42%)

2/8 (25%)Crosses3/15 (20%)

17Throw-ins16

Duels

51Duels49

40/80 (50%)Ground duels40/80 (50%)

7/13 (54%)Aerial duels6/13 (46%)

10/19 (53%)Dribbles10/20 (50%)

11Dispossessed8

Defending

18Tackles20

56Tackles won45

9Interceptions9

17Clearances15

49Recoveries46

Discipline

10Fouls14

2Yellow cards2

0Red cards0

Goalkeeping

4Saves3

2Big saves0

6Goal kicks11

0Punches1

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers

Real Madrid 77%

14%

Sevilla 9%

1X2Real Madrid to win 77% · 1.50 @ Bet365

Who winsReal Madrid to win (DNB) 88% · 1.07 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 67% · 3.10 @ William Hill

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 85% · 1.67 @ William Hill

CornersOver 9.5 corners 52% · 1.75 @ betfair

CornersOver 8.5 corners 63% · 1.45 @ betfair

BTTSBoth teams to score 50% · 3.40 @ William Hill

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 60% · 1.77 @ 1xBet

1X2Draw 14% · 3.66 @ 1xBet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 55% · 1.86 @ 1xBet

1X2Sevilla to win 9% · 8.00 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

1.25

Real Madrid

6.60

Draw

11.00

Sevilla

Double Chanceconsensus

1.06

Real Madrid or Draw

1.10

Real Madrid or Sevilla

3.89

Draw or Sevilla

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.75

Yes

2.00

No

Home Win to Nilconsensus

2.20

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

21.00

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.02

Over 0.50

22.00

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.10

Over 1.50

6.25

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.40

Over 2.50

2.88

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.04

Over 3.50

1.79

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

3.20

Over 4.50

1.32

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

1.06

Real Madrid

8.75

Sevilla

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.21

Over 7.50

3.63

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.39

Over 8.50

2.68

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.70

Over 9.50

2.09

Under 9.50

Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus

2.10

Over 10.50

1.74

Under 10.50

Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus

2.71

Over 11.50

1.39

Under 11.50

Full odds via API →

Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.

Real Madrid to win or draw

✓

91% confidence

Real Madrid to avoid defeat

✓

88% confidence

Over 1.5 goals

✓

85% confidence

A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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