Hamburger SV vs 1. FSV Mainz 05 — live & stats

Where the money is

1668468 EUR matched · captured 1 week, 5 days ago

How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.

Match odds 748086 EUR · live

Away 1.01 · implied 99.0%

87.7%

-11.3 vs price

Home 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

7.9%

+7.8 vs price

Draw 1000.0 · implied 0.1%

4.4%

+4.3 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 goals 109977 EUR · live

Over 1.23 · implied 81.3%

63.7%

-17.6 vs price

Under 5.2 · implied 19.2%

36.3%

+17.0 vs price

Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals 338 EUR

Over 7.4 · implied 13.5%

72.4%

+58.9 vs price

Under 1.14 · implied 87.7%

27.5%

-60.2 vs price

16 more markets on this match

Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the biggest money/price gap.

Weight of Money — see plans

Goal On target Off target Blocked ● size = xG

Tap a player for their full match card.

Highlights 2 clips

Player of the match

Match events

19' ⚽ S. Becker · assist K. Sano0–1

31' A. Caci · Foul

36' Z. E. Ouahdi · Foul

41' ⚽ P. Mwene · assist S. Becker0–2

Half-time · 0–2

46' 🔁 S. Nandja ◂ J. Torunarigha

46' 🔁 P. Daka ◂ M. Adeline

46' 🔁 F. Vieira ◂ B. Nadir

48' ⚽ P. Tietz · assist S. Becker0–3

64' 🔁 O. Stange ◂ T. Moffi

68' 🔁 R. Y. Königsdörffer ◂ S. Becker

81' 🔁 D. Costa ◂ A. Caci

83' ⚽ P. Tietz · assist J. Lee0–4

84' 🔁 L. Lemke ◂ D. M. Wolfe

85' P. Mwene · Foul

88' 🔁 L. Maloney ◂ K. Sano

88' 🔁 O. Ruoppi ◂ J. Lee

88' 🔁 R. Nakuzola ◂ S. Posch

Full-time · 0–5

90' S. Becker · Argument

90'⁺¹ ⚽ R. Y. Königsdörffer · assist P. Mwene0–5

Coaches

Merlin Polzin

Urs Fischer

Recent form

Hamburger SV

LABorussia Dortmund0-2

WASC Verl3-0

WAToulouse2-1

DHLille2-2

LHEverton1-2

1. FSV Mainz 05

DHSC Paderborn 070-0

WAVfB 1921 Krieschow9-0

WHBournemouth2-1

WHParis FC4-0

DHUdinese3-3

About this match

**Mainz roll into Hamburg unbeaten and looking scary** — meanwhile HSV just got demolished by Dortmund and are desperate to right the ship. 🔴

HSV's form is all over the map (win big, lose big), but they've got home advantage and historical edge in this matchup. Mainz though? **Three wins in five** with that mad 9-0 demolition job shows they're clicking hard. Neither side can afford to slip up in round 2.

Key storylines:

- **A. Sambi Lokonga** needs to control the midfield for Hamburg and slow Mainz's slick passing game
- **S. Widmer** and Mainz's fullbacks have been attacking with intent — HSV's wing play will need sharp execution to match it
- Home pressure is real, but **Mainz's defensive shape** (back three, no Mvumpa or Kohr) has been tight; this isn't an easy three points for the hosts

Expected lineups:

- **Hamburger SV**: D. Fernandes, N. Capaldo, S. Bornauw, D. Elfadli, L. Lemke, A. Sambi Lokonga, A. Grønbæk, N. Remberg, M. Adeline, P. Daka, B. Jatta
- **1. FSV Mainz 05**: R. Zentner, A. Caci, D. Costa, F. Gruber, S. Widmer, K. Sano, N. Amiri, J. Lee, P. Mwene, P. Tietz, S. Becker

Prediction:

**1-1 draw** — both sides have enough quality to find the net, but neither quite has the edge to break through. 🤝

Where to watch

beIN SPORTS 2

Match facts

Stadium

Volksparkstadion

City

Hamburg

Referee

Tobias Reichel

4.00 yellows/match · 14 matches

Kickoff

06 Sep, 13:30 UTC

Competition

Bundesliga

Highlights & clips

Hamburger SV 3-4-2-1 · 3-5-2 1. FSV Mainz 05

1 D. Fernandes 5.5 24 N. Capaldo 5.1 33 S. Bornauw 6.9 43 S. Nandja 5.9 ↑ 46' 7 Z. E. Ouahdi 5.8 20 F. Vieira 6.5 ↑ 46' 21 N. Remberg 6.1 37 L. Lemke 6.4 ↑ 84' 27 P. Daka 6.3 ↑ 46' 11 A. Grønbæk 7.2 19 O. Stange 6.2 ↑ 64' 1 A. Schwolow 7.2 47 R. Nakuzola ↑ 88' 3 F. Gruber 7.4 48 K. Potulski 7.0 21 D. Costa 6.7 ↑ 81' 10 N. Amiri 7.0 15 L. Maloney ↑ 88' 20 O. Ruoppi ↑ 88' 2 P. Mwene 8.3 11 R. Y. Königsdörffer 7.2 ↑ 68' 9 P. Tietz 9.0

Substitutes

12GS. Tangvik 3DD. M. Wolfe↓ 84'6.4 23DJ. Torunarigha↓ 46'5.9 4MB. Nadir↓ 46'6.8 5MM. Adeline↓ 46'6.3 22MK. J. Amoako 18MB. Jatta 9FT. Moffi↓ 64'5.9 15FY. Poulsen

Coach: Merlin Polzin

Substitutes

40GM. Kinzig 4DS. Posch↓ 88'7.5 16DS. Bell 6MK. Sano↓ 88'7.3 7MJ. Lee↓ 88'7.0 19MA. Caci↓ 81'6.9 24MS. Kawasaki 23FS. Becker↓ 68'9.6 17FB. Hollerbach

Coach: Urs Fischer

Top stats

55%Possession45%

0.19Expected goals (xG)2.77

8Total shots17

1Shots on target8

0Big chances5

4Corners5

Shots

2Shots off target7

5Blocked shots2

3Shots inside box14

5Shots outside box3

0Big chances scored4

0Big chances missed1

-2.04Goals prevented0.05

Attack

13Touches in box45

62Final third entries51

2Offsides1

19Free kicks14

3Fouled in final third2

Passing

421Passes350

347Accurate passes269

21/41 (51%)Long balls24/60 (40%)

3/13 (23%)Crosses4/11 (36%)

16Throw-ins18

Duels

45Duels55

34/71 (48%)Ground duels37/71 (52%)

15/38 (39%)Aerial duels23/38 (61%)

1/6 (17%)Dribbles12/19 (63%)

7Dispossessed7

Defending

14Tackles12

43Tackles won75

8Interceptions12

25Clearances22

30Recoveries45

Discipline

14Fouls19

1Yellow cards3

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

0Big saves1

10Goal kicks5

Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers

HSV 34%

27%

Mainz 05 39%

Who winsMainz 05 to win (DNB) 55% · 1.77 @ 10bet

1X2Mainz 05 to win 39% · 2.70 @ William Hill

BTTSBoth teams to score 58% · 2.84 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 2.5 goals 56% · 3.94 @ 1xBet

GoalsOver 1.5 goals 78% · 1.99 @ 1xBet

CornersOver 8.5 corners 59% · 1.49 @ Pinnacle

1X2Draw 27% · 2.75 @ Unibet

CornersUnder 10.5 corners 64% · 1.61 @ Unibet

CornersUnder 9.5 corners 53% · 2.00 @ Unibet

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 66% · 1.47 @ betfair

1X2HSV to win 34% · 3.06 @ 1xBet

Odds consensus

1X2consensus

2.75

Hamburger SV

3.55

Draw

2.40

1. FSV Mainz 05

Double Chanceconsensus

1.55

Hamburger SV or Draw

1.29

Hamburger SV or 1. FSV Mainz 05

1.40

Draw or 1. FSV Mainz 05

Both Teams to Scoreconsensus

1.58

Yes

2.25

No

Home Clean Sheetconsensus

3.90

YES

1.22

NO

Away Clean Sheetconsensus

3.60

YES

1.25

NO

Home Win to Nilconsensus

5.12

YES

Away Win to Nilconsensus

4.78

YES

Total Goals 0.50consensus

1.01

Over 0.50

13.25

Under 0.50

Total Goals 1.50consensus

1.20

Over 1.50

4.33

Under 1.50

Total Goals 2.50consensus

1.69

Over 2.50

2.16

Under 2.50

Total Goals 3.50consensus

2.66

Over 3.50

1.45

Under 3.50

Total Goals 4.50consensus

5.00

Over 4.50

1.16

Under 4.50

Draw No Betconsensus

2.00

Hamburger SV

1.73

1. FSV Mainz 05

Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus

1.22

Over 7.50

3.40

Under 7.50

Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus

1.42

Over 8.50

2.52

Under 8.50

Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus

1.75

Over 9.50

1.96

Under 9.50

Full odds via API →

No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.9%.

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

Where the money is

Expected goals (xG) flow

Match momentum

Average positions

Shot map

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