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Ralf Kettemann
SC Paderborn 07
SC Freiburg
SC Paderborn 07
3-5-2 · 4-2-3-1
SC Freiburg
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
457609 EUR · live
Away
1.01 · implied 99.0%
80.1%
-18.9 vs price
Draw
36.0 · implied 2.8%
11.8%
+9.0 vs price
Home
130.0 · implied 0.8%
8.1%
+7.4 vs price
Half time
6787 EUR · live
Away
1.01 · implied 99.0%
69.0%
-30.0 vs price
Draw
760.0 · implied 0.1%
30.1%
+29.9 vs price
Home
100.0 · implied 1.0%
0.9%
-0.1 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
101420 EUR · live
Over
36.0 · implied 2.8%
71.2%
+68.4 vs price
Under
1.01 · implied 99.0%
30.5%
-68.5 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
6679 EUR · live
Under
1.01 · implied 99.0%
89.6%
-9.4 vs price
Over
27.0 · implied 3.7%
10.4%
+6.7 vs price
13 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
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Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
26'
⚽
M. Eggestein0–1
38'
L. Curda · Foul
43'
Y. Suzuki · Foul
Half-time · 0–1
46'
🔁
S. Tigges ◂ R. Philippe
48'
J. Ter-Horst · Foul
56'
P. Lienhart · Foul
59'
Y. Engelhardt · Foul
74'
🔁
O. Batista Meier ◂ L. Ulrich
74'
🔁
V. Grifo ◂ D. Scherhant
74'
🔁
L. Kübler ◂ J. Beste
82'
🔁
S. Marino ◂ M. Pieringer
82'
🔁
J. Sticker ◂ J. Ter-Horst
82'
🔁
K. Goto ◂ Y. Suzuki
82'
🔁
B. Yılmaz ◂ Y. Engelhardt
89'
🔁
N. Mohr ◂ M. Hansen
Full-time · 0–1
90'+3
T. L. Scheller · Argument
Coaches
Ralf KettemannJulian Schuster 
Recent form
SC Paderborn 07DA1. FSV Mainz 050-0
WA1.FC Phönix Lübeck4-2
DASV Werder Bremen2-2
WAVfL Osnabrück2-0
WHSouthampton2-1
SC FreiburgWHSV Werder Bremen4-1
WHMotherwell4-1
WAFortuna Düsseldorf5-1
WAMotherwell3-1
WHCrystal Palace3-0
Where to watch
beIN Sports MAX 8
Sky Go
Startimes Sports Focus
Disney+ Premium Chile
OneFootball
Startimes Sports Focus
DAZNSky Bundesliga HD 5
Disney+ Premium Chile
Novasports extra 3
DAZNSky Bundesliga 5Sky Bundesliga HD 5Sky GoWOW
Viaplay
DAZN
beIN Sports MAX 8
Startimes Sports Focus
Viaplay
Startimes Sports Focus
Sportklub 12 Croatia
Startimes Sports Focus
Startimes Sports Focus
Sky Go
Startimes Sports Focus
Startimes Sports Focus
Viaplay Netherlands
Viaplay
Disney+ Premium Chile
Startimes Sports Focus
Viaplay
Startimes Sports Focus
Startimes Sports Focus
Startimes Sports Focus
FandangoPeacock
Disney+ Premium Sur
Startimes Sports Focus
Match facts
Stadium
Home Deluxe Arena
City
Paderborn
Referee
Kickoff
05 Sep, 13:30 UTC
Competition
Bundesliga
Highlights & clips
SC Paderborn 07
3-5-2 · 4-2-3-1
SC Freiburg
15
N. Noll
8.4
3
J. Sticker
6.9
↑ 82'
25
T. L. Scheller
7.7
24
N. Mohr
↑ 89'
17
L. Curda
6.7
7
O. Batista Meier
6.6
↑ 74'
5
S. Castaneda
7.0
40
G. Vidović
5.9
23
R. Obermair
7.0
27
S. Tigges
6.1
↑ 46'
30
S. Marino
6.6
↑ 82'
1
M. Backhaus
8.2
29
P. Treu
8.0
28
M. Ginter
7.8
3
P. Lienhart
7.1
33
J. Makengo
7.2
8
M. Eggestein
7.6
27
B. Yılmaz
6.6
↑ 82'
17
L. Kübler
6.7
↑ 74'
42
K. Goto
6.6
↑ 82'
32
V. Grifo
6.8
↑ 74'
31
I. Matanović
7.6
Substitutes
1GM. Schubert
22DM. Hansen↓ 89'7.1
21DJ. Ter-Horst↓ 82'6.6
28ML. Ulrich↓ 74'6.8
29MC. Lippmann
8ML. Duric
6MT. Baack
9FR. Philippe↓ 46'6.6
18FM. Pieringer↓ 82'5.8
Coach: Ralf Kettemann
Substitutes
21GF. Müller
37DM. Rosenfelder
43DB. Ogbus
30DC. Günter
19MJ. Beste↓ 74'7.2
16MY. Engelhardt↓ 82'6.3
14MY. Suzuki↓ 82'6.2
22MC. Irié
7FD. Scherhant↓ 74'6.8
Coach: Julian Schuster
Top stats
59%Possession41%
0.77Expected goals (xG)1.24
14Total shots16
3Shots on target5
0Big chances1
5Corners4
Shots
6Shots off target3
5Blocked shots8
6Shots inside box9
8Shots outside box7
0Big chances scored1
1.18Goals prevented0.61
Attack
25Touches in box23
48Final third entries47
1Offsides1
10Free kicks16
1Fouled in final third3
Passing
538Passes366
443Accurate passes276
23/63 (37%)Long balls28/63 (44%)
2/14 (14%)Crosses6/16 (38%)
13Throw-ins17
Duels
45Duels55
32/73 (44%)Ground duels41/73 (56%)
21/45 (47%)Aerial duels24/45 (53%)
7/18 (39%)Dribbles8/16 (50%)
8Dispossessed8
Defending
16Tackles19
50Tackles won68
11Interceptions12
30Clearances33
67Recoveries51
Discipline
16Fouls10
3Yellow cards3
Goalkeeping
4Saves3
2Big saves0
5Goal kicks9
1Punches0
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers
1X2Freiburg to win 47% · 2.30 @ 10bet
BTTSBoth teams to score 60% · 2.90 @ William Hill
CornersOver 9.5 corners 52% · 2.05 @ 10bet
CornersOver 8.5 corners 64% · 1.73 @ Bet365
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 57% · 3.75 @ 1xBet
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 79% · 1.92 @ 1xBet
Who winsPaderborn to win (DNB) 61% · 2.75 @ Betsson
1X2Draw 26% · 2.75 @ Unibet
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 59% · 1.46 @ Unibet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 64% · 1.49 @ Pinnacle
1X2Paderborn to win 27% · 3.60 @ 1xBet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
3.52
SC Paderborn 07
3.67
Draw
2.00
SC Freiburg
Double Chanceconsensus
1.75
SC Paderborn 07 or Draw
1.25
SC Paderborn 07 or SC Freiburg
1.30
Draw or SC Freiburg
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.55
Yes
2.30
No
Home Clean Sheetconsensus
4.50
YES
1.17
NO
Away Clean Sheetconsensus
3.20
YES
1.30
NO
Home Win to Nilconsensus
6.50
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
4.00
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.01
Over 0.50
13.00
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.20
Over 1.50
4.42
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.65
Over 2.50
2.24
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.62
Over 3.50
1.47
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
4.88
Over 4.50
1.17
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
2.62
SC Paderborn 07
1.44
SC Freiburg
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.31
Over 7.50
2.95
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.63
Over 8.50
2.21
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
2.01
Over 9.50
1.75
Under 9.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.
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