Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Dortmund rolls into this one fresh off back-to-back 3-2 thrillers, and Paderborn's come to the wrong place if they're hoping for mercy.** 🔥 The Black and Yellows haven't lost in their last five, while Paderborn's already dropped points to Freiburg and are riding more of a levelled-out vibe.
Dortmund's firepower is scary — **S. Guirassy** and **F. Silva** leading the line with **J. Bellingham** orchestrating from midfield. Paderborn will need their shape tight and hope **R. Obermair** can create something on the counter, but Signal Iduna Park is a hostile place to nick a result.
Key storylines:
- **Dortmund's attacking form** — three wins in a row with 11 goals scored; they're clicking and Paderborn's leaky defence will feel the pressure
- **Bellingham's midfield control** — the young gun's running the show for BVB; Paderborn's **L. Ulrich** and **S. Castaneda** have a tough shift ahead
- **Paderborn chasing a first away win** — they've stolen draws on the road but haven't won; can they hold and nab one here?
Expected lineups:
- **Borussia Dortmund**: G. Kobel, W. Anton, E. Benkara, R. Bensebaini, J. Bellingham, S. Guirassy, F. Silva, E. Duarte
- **SC Paderborn 07**: N. Noll, J. Sticker, T. L. Scheller, L. Curda, S. Castaneda, G. Vidović, R. Obermair
Prediction:
**Dortmund 3–1 Paderborn.** BVB's at home, in rhythm, and Paderborn can't match their tempo.
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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