Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Paderborn host a Hoffenheim side desperate to find consistency** — the visitors' form is all over the map, while the hosts have at least steadied the ship with a draw against Mainz. 🔵
Paderborn are winless in four (1W 2D 2L) but solid at home so far. Hoffenheim, meanwhile, sit **2W 3L** in their last five and just got spanked 0-2 in Europe midweek. H2H leans Hoffenheim's way (2 wins to none), but the hosts can nick this one.
Key storylines:
- **G. Vidović and S. Marino** lead Paderborn's creative push through the middle — they'll need to be sharp against a Hoffenheim backline that's been leaky
- **A. Hložek** is the most dangerous attacking outlet for the visitors but has seen inconsistent service; expect Paderborn to focus on suffocating him early
- Injuries to **N. Awortwie-Grant and S. Klaas** mean Paderborn's wing play could be thinner than ideal, but their 3-4-2-1 should hold firm defensively
Expected lineups:
- **SC Paderborn 07**: N. Noll, J. Sticker, T. L. Scheller, L. Ulrich, L. Curda, G. Vidović, S. Marino, R. Obermair
- **TSG Hoffenheim**: O. Baumann, M. Rots, O. Kabak, V. Coufal, L. Avdullahu, P. Wimmer, A. Hložek
Prediction:
**1-1 draw** — neither side is firing on all cylinders, and Paderborn's home setup will earn them a point. 🤝
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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