Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Mainz are rolling, but Leverkusen just demolished Leipzig** — this is a legit test for the Rhineland underdogs 🔥
Mainz's 3W-1D form has been class (that 4-3 away at Gladbach was bonkers), but they're hobbling into this one with five injuries. Leverkusen are equally hot and healthier, fresh off a statements wins vs Leipzig and NK Celje.
Key storylines:
- **Mainz's makeshift midfield** vs Leverkusen's press: without Kohr and Martel, there's real vulnerability in the engine room. Can Sano and Amiri hold the fort?
- **Diaby & Schick's threat**: Leverkusen's front two have been clinical. Mainz's back three will need A. Schwolow sharp between the sticks.
- **Home stakes for Mainz**: MEWA Arena has been a fortress in this run—can they keep the momentum against the second-best team in the league right now?
Expected lineups:
- **1. FSV Mainz 05**: A. Schwolow, F. Gruber, K. Potulski, D. Costa, K. Sano, N. Amiri, P. Tietz, S. Becker
- **Bayer 04 Leverkusen**: M. Flekken, M. Gutiérrez, E. Tapsoba, L. Badé, A. García, E. Fernández, M. Diaby, P. Schick
Prediction:
**Leverkusen 2-1 Mainz**. Class shines through injury chaos—slight edge to the visitors' depth and form.
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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