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1. FSV Mainz 05
FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
1. FSV Mainz 05
FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
FC Schalke 04
1. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05
FC Schalke 04
1. FSV Mainz 05
FC Schalke 04
1. FSV Mainz 05
Miron Muslić
FC Schalke 04
1. FSV Mainz 05
FC Schalke 04
3-4-2-1 · 3-5-2
1. FSV Mainz 05
Commentary
90'
Full-time. FC Schalke 04 0-1 1. FSV Mainz 05.
90+3'
Attempt missed. R. Y. Königsdörffer (1. FSV Mainz 05), right-footed shot. xG 0.08.
90'
4 minutes of added time.
85'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Offside, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
81'
Attempt blocked. S. El-Faouzi (FC Schalke 04), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.01.
80'
FC Schalke 04
Corner, FC Schalke 04.
77'
FC Schalke 04
Corner, FC Schalke 04.
75'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Offside, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
69'
Attempt missed. S. Becker (1. FSV Mainz 05), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.20.
67'
FC Schalke 04
Offside, FC Schalke 04.
63'
FC Schalke 04
Offside, FC Schalke 04.
63'
Attempt blocked. E. Ebimbe (FC Schalke 04), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.03.
61'
FC Schalke 04
Offside, FC Schalke 04.
54'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Offside, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
46'
The second half is under way.
45'
Half-time. FC Schalke 04 0-1 1. FSV Mainz 05.
45+2'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Offside, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
45'
1 minute of added time.
32'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Corner, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
24'
Goal! FC Schalke 04 0-1 1. FSV Mainz 05. P. Tietz (1. FSV Mainz 05) scores, assisted by A. Caci.
20'
Attempt blocked. A. Gantenbein (FC Schalke 04), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.05.
19'
FC Schalke 04
Corner, FC Schalke 04.
16'
Attempt missed. A. Gantenbein (FC Schalke 04), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.02.
12'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Offside, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
5'
FC Schalke 04
Corner, FC Schalke 04.
3'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Offside, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
1'
Kick-off: FC Schalke 04 vs 1. FSV Mainz 05.
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
174713 EUR · live
Away
1.04 · implied 96.2%
68.5%
-27.7 vs price
Draw
40.0 · implied 2.5%
16.8%
+14.3 vs price
Home
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
14.8%
+14.7 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
47717 EUR · live
Under
1.01 · implied 99.0%
62.7%
-36.3 vs price
Over
120.0 · implied 0.8%
37.3%
+36.5 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
598 EUR
Under
1.18 · implied 84.7%
87.2%
+2.4 vs price
Over
7.0 · implied 14.3%
12.7%
-1.6 vs price
10 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
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Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
24'
⚽
P. Tietz · assist A. Caci0–1
42'
N. Amiri · Foul
Half-time · 0–1
45'
K. Sano · Foul
60'
🔁
E. Ebimbe ◂ A. Gantenbein
60'
🔁
H. Hee-chan ◂ E. Džeko
71'
🔁
J. Adamu ◂ A. Aouchiche
71'
🔁
M. Wöber ◂ N. Katić
76'
🔁
R. Y. Königsdörffer ◂ S. Becker
76'
🔁
P. Nebel ◂ J. Lee
79'
🔁
V. Becker ◂ R. Gosens
86'
🔁
E. Martel ◂ N. Amiri
Full-time · 0–1
90'+1
🔁
S. Widmer ◂ A. Caci
90'+1
🔁
L. Maloney ◂ P. Tietz
Coaches
Miron MuslićUrs Fischer 
Recent form
FC Schalke 04LASC Freiburg1-2
WASC Austria Lustenau1-0
WASC Rot-Weiß Oberhausen5-2
DHSV 07 Elversberg0-0
WA1. FC Union Berlin3-1
1. FSV Mainz 05LHBayer 04 Leverkusen3-4
WASV Waldhof Mannheim3-0
WABorussia M'gladbach4-3
LHEintracht Frankfurt1-3
WAHamburger SV5-0
About this match
**Schalke are cooking right now**, and they host a Mainz side that's been leaky in defense despite their own scoring punch. This is shaping up as a classic high-octane Bundesliga clash. ⚽
Schalke's won three of their last five and just put five past Oberhausen. Mainz's defense, though? They've conceded four to Gladbach and three to Leverkusen — the cracks are showing even when they're finding the net themselves.
Key storylines:
- **Schalke's attacking depth vs. Mainz's injury crisis** — Five players sidelined for Mainz means stretched resources; Schalke have momentum and numbers.
- **J. Adamu leading the line** — Schalke's frontman will face a **K. Potulski**-anchored backline that's been under the gun.
- **A. Caci and the Mainz fullback shuffle** — With **S. Widmer** out, defensive width is at a premium for the visitors.
Expected lineups:
- **FC Schalke 04**: L. Karius, R. Gosens, H. Kuruçay, N. Katić, T. Becker, S. Tanaka, R. Schallenberg, A. Aouchiche, M. Sylla, J. Adamu
- **1. FSV Mainz 05**: R. Zentner, F. Gruber, K. Potulski, D. Costa, A. Caci, S. Posch, K. Sano, N. Amiri, J. Lee, P. Tietz
Prediction:
**Schalke 3-1 Mainz**. Form, firepower, and a vulnerable away defense hand the hosts a solid edge. 🔥
Where to watch
MBC Action
Disney+ (AR)
Sky Go
Arena Sport 4 SRB
MBC Action
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ESPN 5 Sur
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TV2 PlayViaplay
MBC Action
ESPN 5 Sur
MBC Action
DAZN ES
Viaplay
Viaplay
MBC Action
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Sky Go
MBC Action
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Arena Sport 4 SRB
Viaplay Netherlands
TV2 PlayViaplay
MBC Action
ESPN 5 Sur
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ESPN 5 Sur
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Arena Sport 4 SRB
Viaplay
MBC Action
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S Sport+
FandangoPeacockPeacock ES
ESPN 5 Sur
ESPN 5 Sur
MBC Action
Match facts
Stadium
VELTINS-Arena
City
Gelsenkirchen
Kickoff
17 Oct, 13:30 UTC
Competition
Bundesliga
Highlights & clips
FC Schalke 04
3-4-2-1 · 3-5-2
1. FSV Mainz 05
1
L. Karius
8.7
5
T. Becker
6.6
39
M. Wöber
6.8
↑ 71'
4
H. Kuruçay
7.2
29
E. Ebimbe
6.3
↑ 60'
23
S. El-Faouzi
6.3
13
S. Tanaka
7.5
33
V. Becker
6.7
↑ 79'
19
K. Karaman
7.0
20
J. Adamu
6.8
↑ 71'
7
H. Hee-chan
6.5
↑ 60'
1
A. Schwolow
7.7
21
D. Costa
6.9
4
S. Posch
7.5
48
K. Potulski
7.2
15
L. Maloney
↑ 90'
5
E. Martel
6.7
↑ 86'
6
K. Sano
7.4
8
P. Nebel
6.6
↑ 76'
2
P. Mwene
7.2
11
R. Y. Königsdörffer
6.7
↑ 76'
30
S. Widmer
↑ 90'
Substitutes
22GK. Müller
8DR. Gosens↓ 79'6.8
25DN. Katić↓ 71'6.5
43DM. Ayhan
24MA. Aouchiche↓ 71'6.7
17MA. Gantenbein↓ 60'6.4
6MR. Schallenberg
38ML. Vozar
10FE. Džeko↓ 60'6.4
Coach: Miron Muslić
Substitutes
40GM. Kinzig
47DR. Nakuzola
3DF. Gruber
7MJ. Lee↓ 76'7.5
19MA. Caci↓ 90'7.0
10MN. Amiri↓ 86'6.6
9FP. Tietz↓ 90'7.6
23FS. Becker↓ 76'7.2
17FB. Hollerbach
Coach: Urs Fischer
Top stats
47%Possession53%
0.43Expected goals (xG)1.94
9Total shots10
3Shots on target6
1Big chances4
4Corners1
Shots
2Shots off target2
4Blocked shots2
7Shots inside box8
2Shots outside box2
0Big chances scored1
1Big chances missed3
1.98Goals prevented0.4
Attack
24Touches in box15
71Final third entries62
3Offsides7
20Free kicks12
4Fouled in final third2
Passing
392Passes462
259Accurate passes339
16/68 (24%)Long balls35/80 (44%)
4/19 (21%)Crosses3/10 (30%)
19Throw-ins24
Duels
52Duels48
39/70 (56%)Ground duels31/70 (44%)
27/56 (48%)Aerial duels29/56 (52%)
4/14 (29%)Dribbles5/13 (38%)
5Dispossessed11
Defending
19Tackles15
74Tackles won73
12Interceptions7
34Clearances51
50Recoveries53
Discipline
12Fouls20
0Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
Goalkeeping
5Saves3
2Big saves0
7Goal kicks3
0Punches2
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers
1X2Mainz 05 to win 42% · 2.62 @ William Hill
BTTSBoth teams to score 62% · 2.70 @ William Hill
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 58% · 3.70 @ William Hill
CornersOver 9.5 corners 50% · 1.96 @ Pinnacle
CornersOver 8.5 corners 62% · 1.56 @ Pinnacle
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 80% · 1.87 @ 1xBet
1X2Draw 26% · 2.68 @ 1xBet
Who winsSchalke to win (DNB) 58% · 2.15 @ 888Sport
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 61% · 1.51 @ Pinnacle
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 62% · 1.57 @ Bet365
1X2Schalke to win 32% · 3.15 @ 1xBet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
3.00
FC Schalke 04
3.60
Draw
2.26
1. FSV Mainz 05
Double Chanceconsensus
1.62
FC Schalke 04 or Draw
1.27
FC Schalke 04 or 1. FSV Mainz 05
1.36
Draw or 1. FSV Mainz 05
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.53
Yes
2.40
No
Home Win to Nilconsensus
5.50
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
4.80
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.01
Over 0.50
15.00
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.17
Over 1.50
4.75
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.61
Over 2.50
2.30
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.46
Over 3.50
1.50
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
4.42
Over 4.50
1.19
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
2.08
FC Schalke 04
1.67
1. FSV Mainz 05
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.26
Over 7.50
2.90
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.53
Over 8.50
2.29
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.91
Over 9.50
1.83
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.40
Over 10.50
1.48
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
2.95
Over 11.50
1.26
Under 11.50
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
Over 1.5 goals
✗
80% confidence
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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