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SV Werder Bremen
SV Werder Bremen
SV Werder Bremen
1. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05
SV Werder Bremen
1. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05
SV Werder Bremen
SV Werder Bremen
1. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05
SV Werder Bremen
1. FSV Mainz 05
Urs Fischer
1. FSV Mainz 05
SV Werder Bremen
1. FSV Mainz 05
3-5-2 · 4-2-3-1
SV Werder Bremen
Commentary
90'
Full-time. 1. FSV Mainz 05 2-3 SV Werder Bremen.
90+6'
Attempt blocked. E. Dinkçi (SV Werder Bremen), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.08.
90+6'
SV Werder Bremen
Corner, SV Werder Bremen.
90+5'
SV Werder Bremen
Corner, SV Werder Bremen.
90+4'
SV Werder Bremen
Corner, SV Werder Bremen.
90+4'
Attempt blocked. C. Itten (SV Werder Bremen), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.05.
90+3'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Corner, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
90'
5 minutes of added time.
85'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Offside, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
84'
SV Werder Bremen
Corner, SV Werder Bremen.
76'
Attempt missed. E. Dinkçi (SV Werder Bremen), left-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.05.
76'
Attempt saved. M. Grüll (SV Werder Bremen), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.02.
74'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Corner, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
68'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Corner, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
67'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Corner, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
63'
Goal! 1. FSV Mainz 05 2-3 SV Werder Bremen. J. Lee (1. FSV Mainz 05) scores, assisted by A. Caci.
61'
Goal! 1. FSV Mainz 05 1-3 SV Werder Bremen. L. Reis (SV Werder Bremen) scores, assisted by M. Grüll.
58'
Attempt missed. N. Füllkrug (SV Werder Bremen), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.09.
58'
Attempt blocked. M. Weiser (SV Werder Bremen), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.05.
58'
Attempt blocked. M. Friedl (SV Werder Bremen), left-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.03.
58'
SV Werder Bremen
Corner, SV Werder Bremen.
57'
SV Werder Bremen
Corner, SV Werder Bremen.
49'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Offside, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
46'
The second half is under way.
45'
Half-time. 1. FSV Mainz 05 1-2 SV Werder Bremen.
45'
3 minutes of added time.
45'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Corner, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
33'
Goal! 1. FSV Mainz 05 1-2 SV Werder Bremen. A. Caci (1. FSV Mainz 05) scores, assisted by S. Becker.
32'
Attempt missed. M. Weiser (SV Werder Bremen), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.05.
31'
SV Werder Bremen
Corner, SV Werder Bremen.
25'
Goal! 1. FSV Mainz 05 0-2 SV Werder Bremen. N. Füllkrug (SV Werder Bremen) converts the penalty.
18'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Corner, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
7'
Goal! 1. FSV Mainz 05 0-1 SV Werder Bremen. N. Füllkrug (SV Werder Bremen) converts the penalty.
1'
Kick-off: 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs SV Werder Bremen.
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
752273 EUR · live
Away
1.01 · implied 99.0%
83.8%
-15.2 vs price
Home
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
11.9%
+11.8 vs price
Draw
40.0 · implied 2.5%
4.5%
+2.0 vs price
Half time
164 EUR
Away
4.6 · implied 21.7%
56.2%
+34.5 vs price
Home
2.42 · implied 41.3%
34.4%
-6.9 vs price
Draw
2.76 · implied 36.2%
9.4%
-26.8 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
16105 EUR · live
Over
1.08 · implied 92.6%
54.1%
-38.5 vs price
Under
12.5 · implied 8.0%
46.0%
+38.0 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
904 EUR
Under
1.23 · implied 81.3%
98.8%
+17.5 vs price
Over
5.4 · implied 18.5%
1.2%
-17.3 vs price
16 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 3 clips
Player of the match
Match events
7'
⚽
N. Füllkrug (pen)0–1
25'
⚽
N. Füllkrug (pen)0–2
33'
⚽
A. Caci · assist S. Becker1–2
38'
L. Reis · Foul
Half-time · 1–2
46'
🔁
M. Schmetgens ◂ O. Deman
59'
🔁
O. Wojcik ◂ M. Weiser
61'
⚽
L. Reis · assist M. Grüll1–3
63'
⚽
J. Lee · assist A. Caci2–3
69'
P. Mwene · Foul
72'
🔁
E. Dinkçi ◂ Chuki
75'
🔁
S. Widmer ◂ A. Caci
75'
🔁
R. Y. Königsdörffer ◂ J. Lee
81'
🔁
C. Itten ◂ N. Füllkrug
85'
🔁
P. Nebel ◂ D. Costa
85'
🔁
B. Hollerbach ◂ S. Becker
88'
B. Hollerbach · Foul
89'
M. Grüll · Foul
Full-time · 2–3
90'+1
🔁
E. Martel ◂ K. Sano
90'+4
A. Schwolow · Argument
Coaches
Urs FischerDaniel Thioune 
Recent form
1. FSV Mainz 05WAFC Schalke 041-0
LHBayer 04 Leverkusen3-4
WASV Waldhof Mannheim3-0
WABorussia M'gladbach4-3
LHEintracht Frankfurt1-3
SV Werder BremenDHSC Paderborn 072-2
DABorussia Dortmund2-2
LAFC Twente0-7
WHFC Augsburg3-2
DA1. FC Köln1-1
About this match
**Mainz are flying while Bremen are grounded** — the hosts come in hot off three wins in five, but Bremen's been a mess: draws galore and a horrifying 0-7 drubbing in midweek. 🔥
Mainz's form is genuinely impressive; Bremen's depth chart is shredded and they look mentally fragile. This feels like a classic trap-door moment for the visitors.
Key storylines:
- **FSV Mainz 05** momentum is real — three wins in their last five games with a sharp attacking edge
- **SV Werder Bremen** are badly depleted; five key players out (Stage, Njinmah, Topp, Ndiaye, Musah) leaves them stretched thin
- Attack vs. leaky defense — **Nair Tietz** and **Sebastien Becker** face a Bremen backline missing major pieces, while Mainz's midfield depth stays intact
Expected lineups:
- **FSV Mainz 05**: Schwolow, F. Gruber, K. Potulski, D. Costa, A. Caci, S. Posch, K. Sano, N. Amiri, E. Martel, P. Tietz, S. Becker
- **SV Werder Bremen**: K. Hein, O. Deman, M. Friedl, M. Schmetgens, Arthur, L. Reis, S. Lynen, M. Grüll, Chuki, E. Dinkçi, N. Füllkrug
Prediction:
**Mainz 2–0 Bremen.** Home form meets visitor chaos — easy lean for the hosts. 📍
Where to watch
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Disney+ (CHI)
Disney+ (COL)
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TV2 PlayViaplay
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Viaplay
Sky Go
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Disney+ (PER)
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Prima Sport 5
Arena Sport 8 SRB
Viaplay
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Disney+ Premium Argentina
Match facts
Stadium
MEWA Arena
City
Mainz
Kickoff
24 Oct, 13:30 UTC
Competition
Bundesliga
Highlights & clips
1. FSV Mainz 05
3-5-2 · 4-2-3-1
SV Werder Bremen
1
A. Schwolow
7.3
8
P. Nebel
6.9
↑ 85'
4
S. Posch
6.5
48
K. Potulski
6.6
30
S. Widmer
7.3
↑ 75'
11
R. Y. Königsdörffer
6.6
↑ 75'
5
E. Martel
↑ 90'
10
N. Amiri
7.6
2
P. Mwene
6.2
17
B. Hollerbach
6.5
↑ 85'
9
P. Tietz
6.9
1
K. Hein
7.4
13
Arthur
7.3
5
A. Pieper
6.9
32
M. Friedl
6.5
33
M. Schmetgens
7.3
↑ 46'
15
L. Reis
7.5
44
Y. Regeer
7.0
3
O. Wojcik
6.8
↑ 59'
18
E. Dinkçi
7.6
↑ 72'
17
M. Grüll
7.0
26
C. Itten
6.5
↑ 81'
Substitutes
40GM. Kinzig
21DD. Costa↓ 85'6.7
47DR. Nakuzola
3DF. Gruber
19MA. Caci↓ 75'8.7
7MJ. Lee↓ 75'7.9
6MK. Sano↓ 90'7.0
15ML. Maloney
23FS. Becker↓ 85'7.2
Coach: Urs Fischer
Substitutes
30GA. Schlager
2DO. Deman↓ 46'6.5
8MM. Weiser↓ 59'6.9
20MChuki↓ 72'6.8
14MS. Lynen
23MD. Stalmach
38MP. Erevbenagie
10FN. Füllkrug↓ 81'8.0
19FK. Quetant
Coach: Daniel Thioune
Top stats
54%Possession46%
1.7Expected goals (xG)2.69
18Total shots17
8Shots on target8
4Big chances3
6Corners6
Shots
7Shots off target4
3Blocked shots5
15Shots inside box11
3Shots outside box6
1Big chances scored2
3Big chances missed1
-0.29Goals prevented-0.01
Attack
45Touches in box33
87Final third entries37
2Offsides0
5Free kicks5
2Fouled in final third2
Passing
559Passes505
486Accurate passes435
18/36 (50%)Long balls20/42 (48%)
14/38 (37%)Crosses4/14 (29%)
19Throw-ins11
Duels
52Duels48
29/57 (51%)Ground duels28/57 (49%)
19/35 (54%)Aerial duels16/35 (46%)
7/13 (54%)Dribbles5/12 (42%)
10Dispossessed10
Defending
17Tackles16
53Tackles won75
7Interceptions8
21Clearances49
41Recoveries44
Discipline
7Fouls5
3Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
Goalkeeping
6Saves6
2Big saves1
4Goal kicks8
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 24 bookmakers
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 62% · 3.30 @ William Hill
Who winsMainz 05 to win (DNB) 75% · 1.34 @ Betano
1X2Mainz 05 to win 54% · 2.05 @ William Hill
BTTSBoth teams to score 61% · 2.70 @ William Hill
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 82% · 1.79 @ 1xBet
CornersOver 8.5 corners 61% · 1.48 @ Pinnacle
1X2Draw 23% · 2.86 @ 1xBet
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 63% · 1.58 @ 1xBet
CornersUnder 9.5 corners 51% · 1.98 @ 1xBet
1X2Bremen to win 22% · 4.10 @ 1xBet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 60% · 1.65 @ 1xBet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
1.73
1. FSV Mainz 05
4.09
Draw
4.25
SV Werder Bremen
Double Chanceconsensus
1.20
1. FSV Mainz 05 or Draw
1.21
1. FSV Mainz 05 or SV Werder Bremen
2.12
Draw or SV Werder Bremen
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.50
Yes
2.50
No
Home Win to Nilconsensus
3.50
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
9.50
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.02
Over 0.50
17.00
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.15
Over 1.50
5.25
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.53
Over 2.50
2.50
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.30
Over 3.50
1.62
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
3.98
Over 4.50
1.25
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.32
1. FSV Mainz 05
3.10
SV Werder Bremen
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.21
Over 7.50
3.20
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.45
Over 8.50
2.50
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.80
Over 9.50
1.97
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.24
Over 10.50
1.58
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
2.77
Over 11.50
1.33
Under 11.50
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
Over 1.5 goals
✓
82% confidence
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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