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Hamburger SV
M. Polzin
Hamburger SV
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
Hamburger SV
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
Ralf Kettemann
SC Paderborn 07
Hamburger SV
SC Paderborn 07
3-5-2 · 3-5-2
Hamburger SV
Commentary
90'
Full-time. SC Paderborn 07 1-0 Hamburger SV.
90+5'
Attempt blocked. Z. E. Ouahdi (Hamburger SV), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.01.
90+5'
Attempt missed. R. Philippe (SC Paderborn 07), left-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.02.
90+2'
Hamburger SV
Corner, Hamburger SV.
90'
4 minutes of added time.
89'
M. Polzin
Yellow card for M. Polzin (Hamburger SV) for argument.
88'
Goal! SC Paderborn 07 1-0 Hamburger SV. R. Philippe (SC Paderborn 07) scores, assisted by F. Götze.
86'
Attempt blocked. Z. E. Ouahdi (Hamburger SV), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.
85'
Hamburger SV
Corner, Hamburger SV.
82'
Attempt saved. R. Obermair (SC Paderborn 07), right-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.03.
73'
SC Paderborn 07
Corner, SC Paderborn 07.
72'
Attempt saved. R. Obermair (SC Paderborn 07), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.02.
72'
Attempt saved. S. Castaneda (SC Paderborn 07), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.04.
71'
SC Paderborn 07
Corner, SC Paderborn 07.
53'
SC Paderborn 07
Offside, SC Paderborn 07.
47'
Attempt saved. S. Castaneda (SC Paderborn 07), left-footed shot from a throw-in. xG 0.31.
46'
The second half is under way.
45'
Half-time. SC Paderborn 07 0-0 Hamburger SV.
45'
3 minutes of added time.
43'
SC Paderborn 07
Offside, SC Paderborn 07.
37'
Hamburger SV
Corner, Hamburger SV.
31'
SC Paderborn 07
Corner, SC Paderborn 07.
30'
SC Paderborn 07
Corner, SC Paderborn 07.
21'
SC Paderborn 07
Corner, SC Paderborn 07.
21'
SC Paderborn 07
Corner, SC Paderborn 07.
3'
Attempt missed. L. Ulrich (SC Paderborn 07), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.02.
1'
Kick-off: SC Paderborn 07 vs Hamburger SV.
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
433971 EUR · live
Home
1.01 · implied 99.0%
62.1%
-37.0 vs price
Draw
100.0 · implied 1.0%
21.4%
+20.4 vs price
Away
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
16.8%
+16.7 vs price
Half time
724 EUR
Home
2.84 · implied 35.2%
71.3%
+36.1 vs price
Away
3.75 · implied 26.7%
24.3%
-2.4 vs price
Draw
2.64 · implied 37.9%
4.4%
-33.5 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
60187 EUR · live
Under
1.02 · implied 98.0%
64.9%
-33.2 vs price
Over
200.0 · implied 0.5%
35.1%
+34.6 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
731 EUR
Under
1.2 · implied 83.3%
94.2%
+10.9 vs price
Over
6.0 · implied 16.7%
5.8%
-10.9 vs price
16 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 2 clips
Player of the match
Match events
13'
🔁
O. Stange ◂ F. Vieira
Half-time · 0–0
46'
🔁
T. Baack ◂ G. Vidović
46'
🔁
T. Moffi ◂ Y. Poulsen
53'
S. Nandja · Foul
58'
J. Ter-Horst · Foul
62'
🔁
M. Pieringer ◂ S. Tigges
62'
🔁
F. Götze ◂ J. Ter-Horst
70'
🔁
R. Philippe ◂ L. Ulrich
71'
🔁
A. Grønbæk ◂ B. Nadir
71'
🔁
A. Sambi Lokonga ◂ M. Muheim
79'
🔁
S. Michel ◂ S. Marino
87'
A. Sambi Lokonga · Time wasting
88'
⚽
R. Philippe · assist F. Götze1–0
89'
🔁
A. Røssing-Lelesiit ◂ O. Stange
89'
M. Polzin · Argument
Full-time · 1–0
Coaches
Ralf KettemannMerlin Polzin 
Recent form
SC Paderborn 07DASV Werder Bremen2-2
LHVfB Stuttgart0-2
WADC United1-0
WHTSG Hoffenheim3-1
LABorussia Dortmund0-3
Hamburger SVWHVfB Stuttgart1-0
WATSG Hoffenheim3-2
WHFC København2-0
WH1. FC Köln2-1
LARB Leipzig0-5
About this match
**Hamburg rolls into Paderborn on a hot streak** — **four wins in five** is the kind of form that makes visitors scary, and the hosts are gonna need to weather some serious pressure. 🔥
Paderborn's been inconsistent (2W-1D-2L), but they've got the home crowd behind them. Hamburg's missing some key bodies in the back line and up top, which could be their only real vulnerability here.
Key storylines:
- **Hamburger SV's attacking rhythm** versus a Paderborn defense trying to stay compact; watch if the visitors can maintain their 4W streak
- **S. Marino and M. Pieringer** spearheading Paderborn's offense in a 3-5-2 setup built to absorb pressure and counter
- **Y. Poulsen** and **L. Lemke** orchestrating Hamburg's midfield despite injuries to key squad players like **B. Jatta** and **N. Remberg**
Expected lineups:
- **SC Paderborn 07**: N. Noll, T. L. Scheller, M. Hansen, S. Castaneda, L. Ulrich, S. Marino, M. Pieringer
- **Hamburger SV**: D. Fernandes, S. Bornauw, W. Omari, F. Vieira, N. Capaldo, Y. Poulsen, L. Lemke, M. Adeline
Prediction:
**1-2 to Hamburg.** The visitors have momentum for days, and even without **B. Jatta**, they've got the midfield control to nick this one on the road.
Where to watch
beIN Sports MAX 9
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Disney+ (CHI)
Disney+ (COL)
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Viaplay
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Viaplay
Sky Go
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TV2 PlayViaplay
Disney+ (PER)
Disney+ Premium Argentina
Viaplay
FandangoPeacockPeacock ES
Disney+ Premium Argentina
Match facts
Stadium
Home Deluxe Arena
City
Paderborn
Kickoff
24 Oct, 13:30 UTC
Competition
Bundesliga
Highlights & clips
SC Paderborn 07
3-5-2 · 3-5-2
Hamburger SV
15
N. Noll
7.6
20
F. Götze
7.2
↑ 62'
25
T. L. Scheller
7.7
22
M. Hansen
7.3
17
L. Curda
7.1
9
R. Philippe
7.7
↑ 70'
5
S. Castaneda
7.6
6
T. Baack
7.3
↑ 46'
23
R. Obermair
7.9
11
S. Michel
6.6
↑ 79'
18
M. Pieringer
6.4
↑ 62'
1
D. Fernandes
6.8
43
S. Nandja
6.7
33
S. Bornauw
7.0
17
W. Omari
7.0
7
Z. E. Ouahdi
7.1
5
M. Adeline
6.7
11
A. Grønbæk
6.7
↑ 71'
6
A. Sambi Lokonga
6.3
↑ 71'
3
D. M. Wolfe
6.6
9
T. Moffi
6.2
↑ 46'
19
O. Stange
7.5
↑ 13'
Substitutes
1GM. Schubert
21DJ. Ter-Horst↓ 62'6.9
3DJ. Sticker
28ML. Ulrich↓ 70'6.7
40MG. Vidović↓ 46'6.2
38MD. Zeitler
27FS. Tigges↓ 62'6.6
30FS. Marino↓ 79'6.1
2FR. Müller
Coach: Ralf Kettemann
Top stats
62%Possession38%
1.37Expected goals (xG)0.46
16Total shots8
6Shots on target1
2Big chances0
6Corners3
Shots
6Shots off target5
4Blocked shots2
9Shots inside box3
7Shots outside box5
1Hit woodwork0
2Big chances missed0
0.65Goals prevented0.0
Attack
36Touches in box13
67Final third entries47
2Offsides0
15Free kicks12
2Fouled in final third4
Passing
532Passes333
447Accurate passes240
41/68 (60%)Long balls18/60 (30%)
9/29 (31%)Crosses2/17 (12%)
20Throw-ins15
Duels
47Duels53
29/72 (40%)Ground duels43/72 (60%)
26/44 (59%)Aerial duels18/44 (41%)
3/15 (20%)Dribbles10/18 (56%)
10Dispossessed4
Defending
12Tackles22
67Tackles won68
13Interceptions12
23Clearances48
48Recoveries49
Discipline
12Fouls15
1Yellow cards2
0Red cards0
Goalkeeping
1Saves5
0Big saves1
11Goal kicks11
1Punches0
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 24 bookmakers
BTTSBoth teams to score 62% · 2.62 @ Bet365
Who winsPaderborn to win (DNB) 69% · 1.61 @ 10bet
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 60% · 3.60 @ William Hill
CornersOver 9.5 corners 52% · 1.80 @ Bet365
CornersOver 8.5 corners 64% · 1.46 @ Pinnacle
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 81% · 1.81 @ 1xBet
1X2HSV to win 32% · 3.20 @ William Hill
1X2Draw 26% · 2.75 @ 1xBet
1X2Paderborn to win 42% · 2.50 @ Bet365
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 59% · 1.62 @ Pinnacle
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 60% · 1.58 @ Pinnacle
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.21
SC Paderborn 07
3.70
Draw
3.00
Hamburger SV
Double Chanceconsensus
1.38
SC Paderborn 07 or Draw
1.25
SC Paderborn 07 or Hamburger SV
1.65
Draw or Hamburger SV
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.48
Yes
2.54
No
Home Win to Nilconsensus
4.50
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
6.00
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.02
Over 0.50
15.00
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.17
Over 1.50
5.00
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.57
Over 2.50
2.39
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.43
Over 3.50
1.56
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
4.33
Over 4.50
1.21
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.57
SC Paderborn 07
2.25
Hamburger SV
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.20
Over 7.50
3.29
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.43
Over 8.50
2.56
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.79
Over 9.50
1.98
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.19
Over 10.50
1.62
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
2.68
Over 11.50
1.35
Under 11.50
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
Over 1.5 goals
✗
81% confidence
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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