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1. FSV Mainz 05
SV 07 Elversberg
1. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05
SV 07 Elversberg
SV 07 Elversberg
1. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05
SV 07 Elversberg
1. FSV Mainz 05
SV 07 Elversberg
1. FSV Mainz 05
1. FSV Mainz 05
Vincent Wagner
SV 07 Elversberg
1. FSV Mainz 05
SV 07 Elversberg
4-2-3-1 · 3-5-2
1. FSV Mainz 05
Commentary
90'
Full-time. SV 07 Elversberg 4-1 1. FSV Mainz 05.
90+2'
Goal! SV 07 Elversberg 4-1 1. FSV Mainz 05. B. Hollerbach (1. FSV Mainz 05) scores.
90+2'
Off the woodwork! R. Y. Königsdörffer (1. FSV Mainz 05), right-footed shot. xG 0.24.
90'
3 minutes of added time.
90'
Goal! SV 07 Elversberg 4-0 1. FSV Mainz 05. C. Campbell (SV 07 Elversberg) scores, assisted by N. Mickelson.
86'
Attempt saved. C. Campbell (SV 07 Elversberg), left-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.04.
82'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Offside, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
75'
Attempt blocked. N. Mickelson (SV 07 Elversberg), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.01.
68'
SV 07 Elversberg
Corner, SV 07 Elversberg.
65'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Offside, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
65'
Attempt blocked. S. Becker (1. FSV Mainz 05), right-footed shot from a corner. xG 0.01.
65'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Corner, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
63'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Corner, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
61'
SV 07 Elversberg
Corner, SV 07 Elversberg.
46'
The second half is under way.
45'
Half-time. SV 07 Elversberg 3-0 1. FSV Mainz 05.
45+1'
Goal! SV 07 Elversberg 3-0 1. FSV Mainz 05. M. Krattenmacher (SV 07 Elversberg) scores.
45+1'
SV 07 Elversberg
Corner, SV 07 Elversberg.
45'
1 minute of added time.
41'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Corner, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
40'
Attempt missed. L. Petkov (SV 07 Elversberg), right-footed shot on the counter. xG 0.06.
34'
Attempt missed. F. Keidel (SV 07 Elversberg), right-footed shot from a free kick. xG 0.14.
30'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Corner, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
30'
Attempt blocked. S. Becker (1. FSV Mainz 05), right-footed shot from a set piece. xG 0.01.
30'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Corner, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
30'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Corner, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
29'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Corner, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
26'
Goal! SV 07 Elversberg 2-0 1. FSV Mainz 05. F. Onyeka (SV 07 Elversberg) scores, assisted by D. Mokwa.
24'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Corner, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
22'
SV 07 Elversberg
Corner, SV 07 Elversberg.
16'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Corner, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
13'
SV 07 Elversberg
Corner, SV 07 Elversberg.
8'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Corner, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
8'
1. FSV Mainz 05
Corner, 1. FSV Mainz 05.
1'
Kick-off: SV 07 Elversberg vs 1. FSV Mainz 05.
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
1167201 EUR · live
Home
1.01 · implied 99.0%
70.4%
-28.6 vs price
Away
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
24.9%
+24.8 vs price
Draw
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
4.7%
+4.6 vs price
Half time
2155 EUR
Away
2.46 · implied 40.7%
61.9%
+21.3 vs price
Home
4.1 · implied 24.4%
32.4%
+8.0 vs price
Draw
2.8 · implied 35.7%
5.7%
-30.0 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
148388 EUR · live
Over
1.14 · implied 87.7%
81.9%
-5.8 vs price
Under
8.0 · implied 12.5%
18.1%
+5.6 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
729 EUR
Over
5.3 · implied 18.9%
72.3%
+53.4 vs price
Under
1.23 · implied 81.3%
27.7%
-53.6 vs price
18 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 2 clips
Player of the match
Match events
4'
P. Mwene · Foul
7'
⚽
F. Keidel1–0
26'
⚽
F. Onyeka · assist D. Mokwa2–0
33'
D. Costa · Foul
Half-time · 3–0
45'+1
⚽
M. Krattenmacher3–0
63'
🔁
L. Maloney ◂ P. Nebel
63'
🔁
S. Widmer ◂ P. Mwene
63'
🔁
R. Y. Königsdörffer ◂ P. Tietz
63'
🔁
B. Hollerbach ◂ N. Amiri
65'
VAR
Goal not given after review · R. Y. Königsdörffer
68'
🔁
N. Mickelson ◂ L. Günther
75'
R. Y. Königsdörffer · Foul
77'
🔁
C. Campbell ◂ M. Krattenmacher
77'
🔁
F. Schmahl ◂ F. Onyeka
85'
S. Posch · Foul
87'
🔁
E. Martel ◂ K. Sano
88'
🔁
R. Adam ◂ L. Petkov
88'
🔁
L. Schnellbacher ◂ D. Mokwa
Full-time · 4–1
90'
⚽
C. Campbell · assist N. Mickelson4–0
90'+2
⚽
B. Hollerbach4–1
90'+5
S. Posch · Foul
Coaches
Vincent WagnerUrs Fischer 
Recent form
SV 07 ElversbergLHDarmstadt 980-2
LARB Leipzig0-4
WHFC Augsburg4-3
LA1. FC Union Berlin0-1
DAFC Schalke 040-0
1. FSV Mainz 05LAVfL Bochum 18480-2
LHSV Werder Bremen2-3
WAFC Schalke 041-0
LHBayer 04 Leverkusen3-4
WASV Waldhof Mannheim3-0
About this match
**Elversberg roll the dice against a Mainz side caught in chaos** — the hosts have 4-3 thriller energy while Mainz are limping through injuries and inconsistency. 🎲
Elversberg's ride-or-die style got them a wild win over Augsburg but left them vulnerable to Leipzig's demolition. Mainz, meanwhile, are patchy: one-goal wins mixed with heavy defeats, and they're missing three key bodies heading into this.
Key storylines:
- **Elversberg's attacking instability** — they can turn up the chaos at home but defensive cracks keep biting them
- **Mainz stretched thin defensively** — without Kohr, Ruoppi, and Mvumpa, the backline is jury-rigged and exposed to quick transitions
- **P. Tietz and N. Futkeu's finishing duel** — Mainz's creative outlet against Elversberg's high-octane forward will decide tempo and flow
Expected lineups:
- **SV 07 Elversberg**: N. Kristof, M. Rohr, F. Keidel, L. Günther, L. Pinckert, L. Petkov, Ł. Poręba, D. Mokwa, N. Darvich, N. Futkeu, L. Schnellbacher
- **1. FSV Mainz 05**: A. Schwolow, K. Potulski, S. Posch, D. Costa, F. Gruber, A. Caci, K. Sano, P. Mwene, N. Amiri, P. Tietz, S. Becker
Prediction:
**2-2 draw** — both sides have just enough chaos in them to cancel each other out. Coin flip. ⚽
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Match facts
Stadium
Ursapharm-Arena an der Kaiserlinde
City
Spiesen-Elversberg
Kickoff
30 Oct, 19:30 UTC
Competition
Bundesliga
Highlights & clips
SV 07 Elversberg
4-2-3-1 · 3-5-2
1. FSV Mainz 05
20
N. Kristof
7.0
26
L. Sirch
6.3
19
L. Pinckert
7.0
31
M. Rohr
6.7
2
N. Mickelson
6.7
↑ 68'
43
F. Keidel
7.5
8
Ł. Poręba
6.2
24
L. Schnellbacher
6.5
↑ 88'
17
F. Schmahl
6.4
↑ 77'
39
C. Campbell
7.8
↑ 77'
15
R. Adam
6.5
↑ 88'
27
R. Zentner
4.7
21
D. Costa
5.3
4
S. Posch
5.3
48
K. Potulski
5.5
19
A. Caci
6.3
30
S. Widmer
6.1
↑ 63'
5
E. Martel
6.5
↑ 87'
15
L. Maloney
6.4
↑ 63'
17
B. Hollerbach
7.0
↑ 63'
23
S. Becker
7.8
11
R. Y. Königsdörffer
6.4
↑ 63'
Substitutes
28GT. Boss
21DL. Günther↓ 68'7.1
3DF. Le Joncour
40MF. Onyeka↓ 77'8.2
7MM. Krattenmacher↓ 77'8.1
25ML. Petkov↓ 88'6.8
6MA. Condé
42FD. Mokwa↓ 88'6.9
9FN. Futkeu
Coach: Vincent Wagner
Substitutes
1GA. Schwolow
3DF. Gruber
16DS. Bell
10MN. Amiri↓ 63'6.9
6MK. Sano↓ 87'6.4
8MP. Nebel↓ 63'6.3
2MP. Mwene↓ 63'6.1
7MJ. Lee
9FP. Tietz↓ 63'7.0
Coach: Urs Fischer
Top stats
54%Possession46%
0.93Expected goals (xG)1.15
13Total shots10
6Shots on target2
1Big chances4
5Corners11
Shots
3Shots off target6
4Blocked shots2
7Shots inside box7
6Shots outside box3
0Hit woodwork1
0Big chances scored1
1Big chances missed3
-0.22Goals prevented-2.69
Attack
15Touches in box17
47Final third entries59
0Offsides2
22Free kicks8
5Fouled in final third2
Passing
412Passes334
326Accurate passes240
20/48 (42%)Long balls24/57 (42%)
1/12 (8%)Crosses6/29 (21%)
23Throw-ins23
Duels
55Duels45
31/51 (61%)Ground duels20/51 (39%)
23/47 (49%)Aerial duels24/47 (51%)
3/6 (50%)Dribbles3/9 (33%)
6Dispossessed2
Defending
8Tackles9
75Tackles won44
11Interceptions13
25Clearances17
36Recoveries45
Discipline
8Fouls22
0Yellow cards5
0Red cards1
Goalkeeping
1Saves2
6Goal kicks11
0Punches4
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 24 bookmakers
GoalsOver 2.5 goals 64% · 3.12 @ 1xBet
1X2Mainz 05 to win 45% · 2.38 @ William Hill
BTTSBoth teams to score 65% · 2.50 @ Bet365
CornersOver 9.5 corners 54% · 1.80 @ Bet365
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 83% · 1.73 @ 1xBet
CornersOver 8.5 corners 65% · 1.40 @ 1xBet
Who winsElversberg to win (DNB) 66% · 2.62 @ Bet365
1X2Draw 25% · 2.86 @ 1xBet
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 58% · 1.69 @ Pinnacle
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 57% · 1.74 @ Pinnacle
1X2Elversberg to win 30% · 3.32 @ 1xBet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
3.20
SV 07 Elversberg
3.80
Draw
2.09
1. FSV Mainz 05
Double Chanceconsensus
1.73
SV 07 Elversberg or Draw
1.23
SV 07 Elversberg or 1. FSV Mainz 05
1.33
Draw or 1. FSV Mainz 05
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.49
Yes
2.50
No
Home Win to Nilconsensus
7.00
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
4.40
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.02
Over 0.50
17.00
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.14
Over 1.50
5.75
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
1.48
Over 2.50
2.62
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
2.19
Over 3.50
1.71
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
3.77
Over 4.50
1.27
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
2.40
SV 07 Elversberg
1.50
1. FSV Mainz 05
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.20
Over 7.50
3.29
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.40
Over 8.50
2.53
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.71
Over 9.50
1.98
Under 9.50
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.13
Over 10.50
1.65
Under 10.50
Total Corners (O/U) 11.50consensus
2.68
Over 11.50
1.35
Under 11.50
Our calls before kick-off, and how they went.
Over 1.5 goals
✓
83% confidence
A confidence, not a tip. We do not claim these beat the bookmakers' price — the odds are short precisely because the outcome is likely.
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