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Nathan Jones
Charlton Athletic
Derby County
Charlton Athletic
4-2-3-1 · 5-3-2
Derby County
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
186911 EUR · live
Home
1.03 · implied 97.1%
46.2%
-50.9 vs price
Away
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
36.0%
+35.9 vs price
Draw
20.0 · implied 5.0%
17.8%
+12.8 vs price
Half time
1529 EUR · live
Draw
6.6 · implied 15.2%
81.2%
+66.0 vs price
Home
5.0 · implied 20.0%
13.3%
-6.7 vs price
Away
5.0 · implied 20.0%
5.4%
-14.6 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
41498 EUR · live
Under
1.61 · implied 62.1%
68.1%
+6.0 vs price
Over
2.5 · implied 40.0%
31.9%
-8.1 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
115 EUR
Under
1.1 · implied 90.9%
68.9%
-22.0 vs price
Over
11.0 · implied 9.1%
30.5%
+21.4 vs price
13 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
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Highlights 2 clips
Player of the match
Match events
23'
⚽
S. Szmodics · assist C. Morris0–1
Half-time · 0–1
54'
🔁
A. Mowatt ◂ S. Szmodics
59'
🔁
M. Alli ◂ S. Carey
59'
🔁
M. Leaburn ◂ M. Godden
60'
S. K. Langås · Foul
61'
⚽
L. Jones · assist K. Grant1–1
73'
🔁
J. Rankin-Costello ◂ K. Grant
80'
⚽
T. Campbell2–1
83'
🔁
R. Brewster ◂ C. Forsyth
83'
🔁
C. Taylor ◂ O. Fraulo
84'
🔁
M. Johnston ◂ J. Ward
84'
🔁
L. Salvesen ◂ L. Travis
85'
🔁
I. Mesík ◂ D. McNamara
85'
🔁
C. Sichenje ◂ N. Chalobah
Full-time · 2–1
90'
A. Mowatt · Foul
90'+8
R. Brewster · Argument
Coaches
Nathan JonesJohn Eustace 
Recent form
Charlton AthleticWACheltenham Town3-1
LAReading0-3
WAColchester United2-0
LAAFC Wimbledon0-2
WAGillingham1-0
Derby CountyLHLincoln City1-2
DARotherham United1-1
LABurton Albion0-1
WAMansfield Town3-1
LHValencia1-2
Match facts
Stadium
The Valley
City
London
Kickoff
15 Aug, 14:00 UTC
Competition
Championship
Highlights & clips
Charlton Athletic
4-2-3-1 · 5-3-2
Derby County
25
W. Mannion
6.7
18
I. Mesík
6.9
↑ 85'
5
L. Jones
7.7
12
B. Koumetio
6.6
17
A. Bell
6.6
6
C. Coventry
7.3
28
C. Sichenje
7.1
↑ 85'
7
T. Campbell
7.6
19
M. Alli
6.3
↑ 59'
26
J. Rankin-Costello
6.5
↑ 73'
11
M. Leaburn
6.6
↑ 59'
1
J. W. Zetterström
6.3
22
M. Johnston
7.1
↑ 84'
6
S. K. Langås
6.5
28
D. Sanderson
6.6
33
C. Taylor
7.2
↑ 83'
18
C. Taylor
7.2
10
R. Brewster
6.5
↑ 83'
15
L. Salvesen
6.3
↑ 84'
8
B. Clark
6.2
9
C. Morris
6.0
20
A. Mowatt
6.9
↑ 54'
Substitutes
21GT. Brooks
20DD. McNamara↓ 85'6.9
9MK. Grant↓ 73'7.5
15MN. Chalobah↓ 85'7.2
14MS. Carey↓ 59'6.9
32MA. Nwamba
8MH. Knibbs
30MR. Apter
24FM. Godden↓ 59'6.0
Coach: Nathan Jones
Substitutes
31GJ. Vickers
3DC. Forsyth↓ 83'6.8
24DR. Nyambe
11MS. Szmodics↓ 54'7.7
27ML. Travis↓ 84'7.5
29MO. Fraulo↓ 83'6.5
23MJ. Ward↓ 84'6.5
37MO. Eames
13FF. Bilbija
Coach: John Eustace
Top stats
45%Possession55%
1.06Expected goals (xG)1.0
13Total shots15
4Shots on target4
1Big chances1
5Corners4
Shots
4Shots off target5
5Blocked shots6
9Shots inside box11
4Shots outside box4
0Hit woodwork0
1Big chances scored1
0.07Goals prevented-0.4
Attack
28Touches in box25
45Final third entries76
0Offsides1
16Free kicks7
3Fouled in final third1
Passing
375Passes453
285Accurate passes349
15/56 (27%)Long balls28/67 (42%)
3/25 (12%)Crosses7/26 (27%)
14Throw-ins17
Duels
54Duels46
38/62 (61%)Ground duels24/62 (39%)
33/70 (47%)Aerial duels37/70 (53%)
11/17 (65%)Dribbles5/9 (56%)
7Dispossessed7
Defending
11Tackles13
73Tackles won77
3Interceptions7
37Clearances29
40Recoveries47
Discipline
7Fouls16
0Yellow cards3
Goalkeeping
3Saves2
1Big saves1
5Goal kicks7
3Punches0
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 72 bookmakers
CornersOver 9.5 corners 52% · 1.81 @ Novibet
CornersOver 8.5 corners 64% · 1.50 @ Interwetten
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 56% · 1.73 @ boylesports
1X2Draw 30% · 2.45 @ efbet.net
1X2Derby to win 35% · 3.15 @ norsktipping
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 76% · 1.02 @ Novibet
BTTSBoth teams to score 51% · 1.96 @ betfair
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 69% · 1.45 @ betfair
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 59% · 1.61 @ 888Sport
Who winsCharlton to win (DNB) 50% · 1.90 @ merkurxtip
1X2Charlton to win 34% · 3.15 @ efbet.net
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.69
Charlton Athletic
3.12
Draw
2.68
Derby County
Double Chanceconsensus
1.44
Charlton Athletic or Draw
1.34
Charlton Athletic or Derby County
1.43
Draw or Derby County
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.87
Yes
1.82
No
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.07
Over 0.50
7.54
Under 0.50 ▲
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.38
Over 1.50
2.88
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
2.21
Over 2.50
1.63
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
4.01
Over 3.50
1.21
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
6.60
Over 4.50
1.11
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.85
Charlton Athletic
1.84
Derby County
Total Corners (O/U) 4.50consensus
1.01
Over 4.50
14.56
Under 4.50
Total Corners (O/U) 5.50consensus
1.05
Over 5.50
8.56
Under 5.50
Total Corners (O/U) 6.50consensus
1.12
Over 6.50
4.72
Under 6.50
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.24
Over 7.50
3.62
Under 7.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.45
Over 8.50 ▼
2.52
Under 8.50 ▲
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.78
Over 9.50 ▼
1.92
Under 9.50 ▼
Total Corners (O/U) 10.50consensus
2.26
Over 10.50 ▼
1.56
Under 10.50 ▼
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.5%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.5%.
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