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John Eustace
Derby County
Swansea City
Derby County
4-2-3-1 · 4-3-3
Swansea City
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
134349 EUR · live
Away
1.01 · implied 99.0%
78.4%
-20.6 vs price
Home
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
14.3%
+14.2 vs price
Draw
1000.0 · implied 0.1%
7.5%
+7.4 vs price
Half time
688 EUR · live
Away
1.01 · implied 99.0%
67.9%
-31.1 vs price
Draw
10.5 · implied 9.5%
25.0%
+15.5 vs price
Home
55.0 · implied 1.8%
6.8%
+5.0 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
92179 EUR · live
Under
1.11 · implied 90.1%
64.5%
-25.6 vs price
Over
8.2 · implied 12.2%
35.5%
+23.3 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 first-half goals
1496 EUR · live
Under
1.06 · implied 94.3%
91.0%
-3.3 vs price
Over
10.0 · implied 10.0%
8.9%
-1.1 vs price
11 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 2 clips
Player of the match
Match events
2'
⚽
J. Opoku · assist J. Eom0–1
24'
🔁
M. K. Yeo ◂ J. Opoku
44'
⚽
J. Eom0–2
Half-time · 0–2
46'
🔁
R. Brewster ◂ R. Hedges
46'
🔁
S. Szmodics ◂ C. Taylor
46'
🔁
J. Ward ◂ M. Johnston
65'
🔁
S. Eustaquio ◂ J. Fulton
65'
🔁
E. Just ◂ M. Widell
65'
🔁
Ž. Vipotnik ◂ A. Idah
69'
🔁
F. Bilbija ◂ L. Salvesen
69'
S. K. Langås · Foul
73'
M. Stamenić
78'
🔁
O. Eames ◂ A. Mowatt
79'
D. Sanderson · Foul
81'
L. Travis · Foul
84'
E. Just · Foul
85'
🔁
Ronald ◂ J. Eom
86'
🔁
◂ L. Travis
Full-time · 0–3
90'+1
⚽
Ronald · assist S. Eustaquio0–3
Coaches
John EustaceVitor Matos 
Recent form
Derby CountyDHCardiff City2-2
LACharlton Athletic1-2
LHLincoln City1-2
DARotherham United1-1
LABurton Albion0-1
Swansea CityDHSheffield United0-0
WAStoke City2-1
LHBirmingham City0-1
WHLeganés1-0
LAMerthyr Town0-3
Where to watch
Betano
Viaplay
Sky Sports+
Viaplay
Sky Sports+
Viaplay
V Sport ExtraViaplay
Match facts
Stadium
Pride Park Stadium
City
Derby
Kickoff
29 Aug, 11:30 UTC
Competition
Championship
Highlights & clips
Derby County
4-2-3-1 · 4-3-3
Swansea City
1
J. W. Zetterström
8.0
11
S. Szmodics
6.6
↑ 46'
6
S. K. Langås
5.8
28
D. Sanderson
7.0
23
J. Ward
6.5
↑ 46'
20
A. Mowatt
7.3
27
L. Travis
6.6
10
R. Brewster
6.6
↑ 46'
8
B. Clark
6.5
13
F. Bilbija
6.3
↑ 69'
37
O. Eames
6.5
↑ 78'
22
L. Vigouroux
6.7
2
J. Key
7.9
26
F. Lissah
7.5
23
S. Welsh
8.2
14
J. Tymon
7.0
8
E. Just
6.5
↑ 65'
46
S. Eustaquio
7.1
↑ 65'
6
M. Stamenić
6.8
49
M. K. Yeo
7.3
↑ 24'
9
Ž. Vipotnik
6.8
↑ 65'
35
Ronald
7.7
↑ 85'
Substitutes
31GJ. Vickers
22DM. Johnston↓ 46'5.8
3DC. Forsyth
24DR. Nyambe
26MR. Hedges↓ 46'6.5
18MC. Taylor↓ 46'5.9
33MC. Taylor↓ 46'5.9
29MO. Fraulo
15FL. Salvesen↓ 69'6.4
Coach: John Eustace
Substitutes
1GA. Fisher
3DJ. Seelt
20DT. Parente
10MJ. Eom↓ 85'8.1
4MJ. Fulton↓ 65'7.1
7MM. Widell↓ 65'6.7
44MT. Woodward
30FJ. Opoku↓ 24'7.1
33FA. Idah↓ 65'6.2
Coach: Vitor Matos
Top stats
47%Possession53%
0.7Expected goals (xG)3.0
8Total shots23
0Shots on target12
0Big chances4
5Corners6
Shots
2Shots off target5
6Blocked shots6
5Shots inside box15
3Shots outside box8
0Hit woodwork0
0Big chances scored1
0Big chances missed3
0.46Goals prevented0.0
Attack
12Touches in box31
61Final third entries52
5Offsides4
7Free kicks16
0Fouled in final third3
Passing
404Passes475
308Accurate passes394
20/61 (33%)Long balls21/56 (38%)
6/23 (26%)Crosses3/7 (43%)
28Throw-ins20
Duels
44Duels56
31/73 (42%)Ground duels42/73 (58%)
13/28 (46%)Aerial duels15/28 (54%)
7/18 (39%)Dribbles4/15 (27%)
11Dispossessed6
Defending
17Tackles22
76Tackles won68
8Interceptions8
20Clearances40
55Recoveries59
Discipline
16Fouls7
3Yellow cards2
Goalkeeping
9Saves0
8Goal kicks6
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 26 bookmakers
CornersOver 9.5 corners 52% · 1.70 @ Pinnacle
CornersOver 8.5 corners 63% · 1.36 @ 1xBet
Who winsDerby to win (DNB) 65% · 1.72 @ Betsson
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 54% · 1.15 @ 10bet
1X2Draw 29% · 2.43 @ Unibet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 74% · 1.28 @ Pinnacle
1X2Swansea to win 30% · 3.46 @ 1xBet
BTTSBoth teams to score 51% · 3.50 @ Bet365
1X2Derby to win 41% · 2.63 @ Unibet
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 70% · 2.25 @ William Hill
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 60% · 1.78 @ Unibet
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
2.30
Derby County
3.29
Draw
3.10
Swansea City
Double Chanceconsensus
1.34
Derby County or Draw
1.30
Derby County or Swansea City
1.58
Draw or Swansea City
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.80
Yes
1.90
No
Home Clean Sheetconsensus
2.75
YES
1.40
NO
Away Clean Sheetconsensus
3.45
YES
1.25
NO
Home Win to Nilconsensus
3.80
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
5.38
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.05
Over 0.50
9.00
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.35
Over 1.50
3.10
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
2.10
Over 2.50
1.73
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
3.65
Over 3.50
1.25
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
7.35
Over 4.50
1.07
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.65
Derby County
2.15
Swansea City
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.17
Over 7.50
4.08
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.34
Over 8.50
2.90
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.62
Over 9.50
2.18
Under 9.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.6%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.6%.
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