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Alex Neil
Millwall
Bolton Wanderers
Millwall
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Bolton Wanderers
Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Match odds
98754 EUR · live
Home
1.3 · implied 76.9%
76.7%
-0.2 vs price
Away
25.0 · implied 4.0%
15.6%
+11.6 vs price
Draw
5.0 · implied 20.0%
7.8%
-12.2 vs price
Half time
584 EUR · live
Draw
1.69 · implied 59.2%
75.1%
+16.0 vs price
Away
6.0 · implied 16.7%
15.9%
-0.7 vs price
Home
3.7 · implied 27.0%
8.6%
-18.5 vs price
Over/Under 2.5 goals
8127 EUR · live
Over
2.8 · implied 35.7%
62.9%
+27.2 vs price
Under
1.55 · implied 64.5%
37.1%
-27.4 vs price
8 more markets on this match
Corners, cards, correct score, both-teams-to-score and the rest — plus how
the split moved over time, and which matches across the board show the
biggest money/price gap.
Weight of Money — see plans
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Minute-by-minute pressure. Bars toward a team mean sustained attacking territory.
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedGoalOn targetOff / blocked● size = xG
Goal
On target
Off target
Blocked
● size = xG
Tap a player for their full match card.
Highlights 1 clip
Player of the match
Match events
38'
⚽
C. Taylor · assist J. Metcalfe1–0
Half-time · 1–0
46'
🔁
R. Rodrigues ◂ J. McAtee
55'
🔁
D. Kelly ◂ D. Mazou-Sacko
60'
🔁
K. Dong ◂ S. I. Junior
60'
🔁
T. Bair ◂ S. Dalby
65'
🔁
Z. Lovelace ◂ R. Esse
65'
🔁
Y. Issoufou ◂ T. Arconte
75'
🔁
M. Conway ◂ A. Famewo
75'
A. Famewo · Foul
76'
🔁
R. Hardie ◂ X. Simons
81'
🔁
E. Baggott ◂ J. Osei-Tutu
81'
🔁
◂ L. Brunt
83'
⚽
L. Dykes · assist Z. Lovelace2–0
86'
J. Metcalfe · Violent conduct
86'
J. Sheehan · Violent conduct
88'
⚽
L. Dykes · assist Z. Sturge3–0
Full-time · 4–0
90'+2
⚽
C. Neghli4–0
Coaches
Alex NeilSteven Schumacher 
Recent form
MillwallLHWrexham0-3
LASouthampton1-5
WACambridge United1-0
WHNorwich City3-0
WABristol City2-0
Bolton WanderersLASheffield United2-3
LHLincoln City0-1
DAQueens Park Rangers0-0
WHPreston North End2-1
LASheffield Wednesday0-1
Where to watch
Viaplay
Viaplay
Viaplay
Viaplay
Match facts
Stadium
The Den
City
London
Kickoff
05 Sep, 14:00 UTC
Competition
Championship
Highlights & clips
Millwall
4-2-3-1 · 4-2-3-1
Bolton Wanderers
15
M. Crocombe
8.9
12
E. Baggott
6.8
↑ 81'
6
C. Taylor
8.4
5
J. Cooper
7.7
3
Z. Sturge
7.0
16
D. Kelly
6.5
↑ 55'
14
J. Metcalfe
7.6
35
Y. Issoufou
6.6
↑ 65'
29
Z. Lovelace
6.9
↑ 65'
10
C. Neghli
8.0
13
L. Dykes
8.7
1
J. Bonham
5.8
5
L. Brunt
6.4
3
C. Forino
6.3
6
B. Davies
5.9
25
M. Conway
5.5
↑ 75'
39
R. Hardie
6.3
↑ 76'
8
J. Sheehan
6.6
7
K. Dong
6.6
↑ 60'
20
R. Rodrigues
7.3
↑ 46'
11
T. Gale
6.6
9
T. Bair
6.4
↑ 60'
Substitutes
34GF. Marschall
2DJ. Osei-Tutu↓ 81'7.6
55DT. Parkes
23DD. Batth
49MD. Mazou-Sacko↓ 55'7.2
11MR. Esse↓ 65'6.8
51MS. T. Vieira
44MA. Massey
7FT. Arconte↓ 65'6.6
Coach: Alex Neil
Substitutes
31GG. Bazunu
14DA. Famewo↓ 75'6.6
18DE. Toal
4MX. Simons↓ 76'6.8
16MS. I. Junior↓ 60'6.4
45MJ. McAtee↓ 46'6.3
21ME. Erhahon
10FS. Dalby↓ 60'6.3
26FJ. Nelson
Coach: Steven Schumacher
Top stats
39%Possession61%
2.65Expected goals (xG)0.95
12Total shots13
5Shots on target4
5Big chances1
3Corners9
Shots
4Shots off target5
3Blocked shots4
11Shots inside box11
1Shots outside box2
0Hit woodwork1
3Big chances scored0
2Big chances missed1
1.29Goals prevented-0.66
Attack
31Touches in box25
49Final third entries45
8Offsides0
14Free kicks13
3Fouled in final third2
Passing
265Passes412
186Accurate passes334
26/56 (46%)Long balls25/54 (46%)
4/17 (24%)Crosses6/26 (23%)
16Throw-ins13
Duels
52Duels48
30/56 (54%)Ground duels26/56 (46%)
24/47 (51%)Aerial duels23/47 (49%)
3/7 (43%)Dribbles6/15 (40%)
3Dispossessed4
Defending
13Tackles7
54Tackles won29
6Interceptions6
27Clearances32
51Recoveries47
Discipline
13Fouls14
0Yellow cards1
1Red cards1
Goalkeeping
4Saves1
3Big saves0
9Goal kicks6
0Punches1
Forecast BSD enginebest price across 25 bookmakers
CornersOver 9.5 corners 55% · 1.70 @ 10bet
CornersOver 8.5 corners 67% · 1.37 @ Unibet
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals 53% · 1.17 @ 10bet
1X2Millwall to win 48% · 2.30 @ 10bet
1X2Draw 28% · 2.48 @ Unibet
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals 73% · 1.33 @ Pinnacle
BTTSBoth teams to score 52% · 3.50 @ Bet365
GoalsOver 1.5 goals 71% · 2.25 @ Unibet
Who winsMillwall to win (DNB) 55% · 1.44 @ Betano
1X2Bolton to win 24% · 4.25 @ Unibet
CornersUnder 10.5 corners 56% · 1.82 @ Pinnacle
Odds consensus
1X2consensus
1.95
Millwall
3.40
Draw
3.97
Bolton Wanderers
Double Chanceconsensus
1.21
Millwall or Draw
1.29
Millwall or Bolton Wanderers
1.85
Draw or Bolton Wanderers
Both Teams to Scoreconsensus
1.75
Yes
2.00
No
Home Clean Sheetconsensus
2.45
YES
1.48
NO
Away Clean Sheetconsensus
4.00
YES
1.20
NO
Home Win to Nilconsensus
3.10
YES
Away Win to Nilconsensus
6.50
YES
Total Goals 0.50consensus
1.04
Over 0.50
8.95
Under 0.50
Total Goals 1.50consensus
1.33
Over 1.50
3.25
Under 1.50
Total Goals 2.50consensus
2.00
Over 2.50
1.77
Under 2.50
Total Goals 3.50consensus
3.50
Over 3.50
1.28
Under 3.50
Total Goals 4.50consensus
7.17
Over 4.50
1.08
Under 4.50
Draw No Betconsensus
1.42
Millwall
2.70
Bolton Wanderers
Total Corners (O/U) 7.50consensus
1.20
Over 7.50
4.00
Under 7.50
Total Corners (O/U) 8.50consensus
1.36
Over 8.50
2.88
Under 8.50
Total Corners (O/U) 9.50consensus
1.62
Over 9.50
2.12
Under 9.50
No pre-match call on this one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.
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