Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Wrexham are flying at home while Burnley are in freefall** — this is the classic banana-skin setup where the underdogs bite back. 🔴
**Wrexham** have picked up 1W and 3D in their last five, grinding out results with a solid backline. **Burnley**, though, are spiraling: three losses in five and conceding freely (1-4 to Norwich is yikes). Both squads are battered by injuries, but Wrexham's depth on their own patch is the edge here.
Key storylines:
- **Wrexham's home fortress** vs a Burnley side that can't buy a clean sheet — expect the Reds to press and punish set pieces
- **Satpayev and Ramsey** carry Burnley's attacking hopes, but without **Flemming** up top, the fire's gone out
- Missing **Sheaf, Windass,** and **Cacace** doesn't help Wrexham's midfield control, yet the hosts still smell blood against a wounded visitor
Expected lineups:
- **Wrexham**: Patterson, Doyle, Hyam, O'Brien, James, Moore, Broadhead, Rathbone, Smith
- **Burnley**: Weiss, Pires, Alleyne, Humphreys, Laurent, Raghouber, Bruun Larsen, Ramsey, Satpayev
Prediction:
**Wrexham 2-1 Burnley**. Home advantage and Burnley's defensive shambles point to the Reds getting their second win of the run. Tight match, but Wrexham's the lean. ⚪
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.7%.
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