Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Norwich's looking sharp, but Birmingham's got that stubborn draw-master energy.** This is a clash between a team hitting form and one that just won't go away quietly. 🔥
Norwich have won three of their last five and demolished Burnley 4-1 at home — Carrow Road is feeling dangerous right now. Birmingham, meanwhile, are drawing everything (three of their last five), but they've also held Southampton to 1-1, so they know how to park the bus. Norwich's injury list is biting hard though — **Ahmed, Musaba, Makama, and Mahovo all out** — which could blunt their edge.
Key storylines:
- **Norwich's home form vs Birmingham's brick-wall defending** — the Canaries want to press their advantage, but the visitors live for 1-1s
- **M. Touré's role up front** — Norwich's striker will be crucial with so many bodies missing in midfield and attack
- **C. Vicente and T. Iwata's ability to disrupt play** — if Birmingham can strangle the midfield, they'll leave with a point
Expected lineups:
- **Norwich City**: Kovačević, Chrisene, Córdoba, McConville, Stacey, McLean, Mattsson, Schwartau, Slimane, Brooks, Touré
- **Birmingham City**: Beadle, Buchanan, Klarer, Solís, Neumann, Iwata, Vicente, Priske, Stansfield, Vázquez, Bateman
Prediction:
**Norwich 2-1 Birmingham.** Norwich's home comfort and recent form give them a slight edge, but this feels tight enough that Birmingham could nick a draw.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.8%.
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