Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
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**Charlton rolls into this one as the home banker**, and honestly their Valley vibe's been solid — though watching them get battered 4-0 at Stoke a fortnight ago still stings. Portsmouth are janky right now: two wins look nice on paper, but sandwiched between losses to Derby and Bristol City spells trouble. 🔴
Charlton's missing a chunk of defensive depth with **B. Koumetio** and **C. Sichenje** out injured, but they've steadied the ship at home (that QPR blank was a statement). **Portsmouth are injury-ravaged** — five players down including key defenders — and frankly look fragile away from home.
Key storylines:
- **M. Alli** and **S. Carey** shape Charlton's creative play against a Portsmouth side that's been leaky in transition
- **C. Shaughnessy** and **B. Arthur** will have their hands full dealing with **M. Mbick** and **K. Grant's** movement in the box
- Home turf advantage + Portsmouth's injury crisis = Charlton should be circling this one
Expected lineups:
- **Charlton Athletic**: A. Okonkwo, T. Campbell, L. Jones, A. Bell, J. Rankin-Costello, C. Coventry, I. Mesík, K. Grant, S. Carey, M. Alli, M. Mbick
- **Portsmouth**: N. Schmid, J. Meghoma, C. Shaughnessy, B. Arthur, T. Devlin, M. Pack, E. Adams, R. K.-McQueen, J. Swift, A. Segecic, C. Bishop
Prediction:
**Charlton 2–0 Portsmouth** — Home pressure and Portsmouth's battered squad spell relief at The Valley. 🎯
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 86.8%.
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