Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
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**Sheffield United are heavy favorites here, and Derby's injury list basically writes the narrative for you.** 🔴 The Blades are clicking at home while Derby are limping in with five players out and just two draws in their last five.
Sheffield United have won their last two at Bramall Lane and showed teeth against Portsmouth despite the loss. Derby, meanwhile, got battered 4-1 by QPR and haven't won since before Halloween. The Blades' superior depth and form give them a clear edge.
Key storylines:
- **B. Brereton Díaz** and **T. Cannon** up front will be hungry against a Derby backline missing **C. Forsyth** and **E. J. Cashin**
- **O. Arblaster** and **S. Peck** controlling midfield tempo for Sheffield while **A. Mowatt** and **D. Ozoh** try to hold the fort for Derby
- Home advantage at Bramall Lane with momentum — Sheffield United have won their last two here
Expected lineups:
- **Sheffield United**: M. Cooper, S. McCallum, J. Tanganga, L. Kitching, M. McGuinness, O. Arblaster, S. Peck, H. Choudhury, J. Rothwell, B. Brereton Díaz, T. Cannon
- **Derby County**: J. Vickers, R. Nyambe, B. Clark, D. Sanderson, J. Ward, A. Mowatt, D. Ozoh, R. Hedges, S. Szmodics, M. Fuseini, C. Morris
Prediction:
**Sheffield United 2–0 Derby County** — Blades lean on their form and Derby's injuries to seal a comfortable win at home.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.3%.
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