Where the money is
How much money is actually on each selection, next to what the price says it should be. A gap is not a tip — it just means the crowd and the book disagree.
Expected goals (xG) flow
per shotMatch momentum
Average positions
formation shapeShot map
xG sizedTap a player for their full match card.
**Derby's in freefall, but they've got Bolton's number — this is a chance to reset at home.** The Rams are winless in five, while Bolton just bounced back with a win over Charlton; question is whether either side can string together any real momentum. 🏴
Derby are battered by injuries across the backline and midfield, yet the head-to-head record screams home advantage matters here. Bolton's form is mixed but they're missing key attacking players — **Hardie, McAtee, and Erhahon** all sidelined. This could be a scrappy, low-confidence affair.
Key storylines:
- **Derby's injury crisis** vs Bolton's attacking depth — the Rams will lean heavy on **R. Nyambe** and **J. Robinson** to hold the fort defensively
- **B. Clark** and **A. Mowatt** face a midfield battle against **J. Sheehan** and **X. Simons**, with little rhythm on either side
- History favours the hosts — Derby 11 wins in the last 22 meetings gives them a slight edge, even at their lowest ebb
Expected lineups:
- **Derby County**: Zetterström, Nyambe, Sanderson, Robinson, Ward, Clark, Mowatt, Hedges, Szmodics, Fuseini, Morris
- **Bolton Wanderers**: Bazunu, Conway, Toal, Davies, Larrazabal, Sheehan, Simons, Gale, Rodrigues, Dong, Dalby
Prediction:
**Derby 1–1 Bolton.** Two teams desperate for a win but too wound up to break the other down — a frustrating draw that leaves both needing the next one.
Nothing reached 80% confidence before kick-off, so we stayed quiet rather than guess. Most matches end up here — that is what keeps the published calls at 87.3%.
Report a data issue
Spotted something wrong on this match? Tell us what and we'll fix it.