**Burgos are heavy favorites at home**, and honestly, it's hard to argue — Ceuta arrive in freefall with four losses in their last five. 🔴

Burgos have mixed results but at least they're not hemorrhaging goals at home; Ceuta have shipped 7 in their last three away days. The hosts' draw-heavy record (3D in last 5) suggests they might not blow teams away, but against a wounded visitor, control should be enough.

Key storylines:

- **Burgos** welcome Ceuta without Á. Lizancos, but their 4-4-2 shape at El Plantio has proven sturdy against decent sides
- **Ceuta's** injury woes mount with A. Caparrós suspended and Anuar sidelined; they're paper-thin in midfield
- **Á. Forés and C. Sanchez** should feast on a defense that's conceded 2+ in three straight

Expected lineups:

- **Burgos Club de Fútbol**: A. Cantero, S. González, G. Sierra, A. Dadie, I. Vilarrasa, D. González, J. Llabrés, J. Gragera, S. Lencina, C. Sanchez, Á. Forés
- **AD Ceuta**: G. Vallejo, Redru, Carlos, A. Lapeña, Á. Petxa, Y. Bodiger, K. Zalazar, M. Illescas, K. A. Kone, J. Escobar, A. Camacho

Prediction:

**Burgos 2–0 Ceuta**

Ceuta's depth issues and leaky backline hand Burgos a clear edge. 💪